Stock Picking (Beat Boho) Contest - V2.0

[ERD50]

I just want to say that it's the wildfires in California that caused RNR to drop after I bought it. It's not my fault.

I'm beginning to think you are just trolling us (well, actually, I've thought it for a while, all the way back to your "Rock, Paper, Scissors" posts, but giving the benefit of the doubt).

Of course it is your fault! You bought it!

Whenever you buy an individual stock, you take specific stock risk (and specific stock reward). This is greatly reduced through diversification (see nun for advice on this!).

Let me guess, when your pick goes up, it was because of your superior stock picking skills, but when it goes down, it was due to something beyond your control?

Sure wish we could get an up-to-date comparison, since it seems portfolios are not updated at the same time. Though that will become less important over time. As I said before, with a small sample size and relatively short time frame, anything can happen. But things seem to be playing out as expected - a lot of volatility among the stock pickers, and starting to look like very few of them can stay ahead of a broad buy/hold strategy. As if we needed more 'proof'?

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

Of course it is your fault! You bought it!...Sure wish we could get an up-to-date comparison

Still, it makes me feel better that an act of nature was involved and I was looking to hold it for as short a time as possible. The fire is just a coincidence. I'm more diversified now because of things like this and I'll take full responsibility for the end results.

Despite the above, my up to date account value (from the portfolio page, not the rankings) is $964,117.68. Here are the current account values from everyone's portfolio page compared to the rankings:

Up to date, from portfolios:

1. up98down34 $1,358,696.57
2. Totoro_ERF $1,292,052.57
3. exnavynuke $1,283,251.54
4. comsecga $1,218,949.01
5. Fermion1 $1,177,569.67
6. nunnun $1,128,476.11
7. DieWurst $1,127,354.27
8. sengsational $1,094,452.07
9. cfahey27 $1,092,265.25
10. kite_rider $1,074,544.01
11. nvestysly $1,071,977.62
12. easysurfer $1,060,476.70
13. Spudd $1,051,472.09
14. RISP $1,048,793.50
15. lawrencewendall $1,001,198.85
16. longshot345kv $1,000,000.00
17. MizRosie $1,000,000.00
18. RiskyBusinessC2 $998,884.69
19. BohoII $964,117.68
20. trashcan12 $950,282.01
21. lbymfreddie $947,289.92
22. Fermion $724,345.02

Delayed ranking list:

1. up98down34 $1,352,771.67
2. exnavynuke $1,281,453.54
3. Totoro_ERF $1,258,497.57
4. Fermion1 $1,188,369.67
5. comsecga $1,183,494.81
6. DieWurst $1,138,898.24
7. nunnun $1,131,479.23
8. cfahey27 $1,097,476.05
9. sengsational $1,091,837.13
10. nvestysly $1,077,558.34
11. easysurfer $1,060,059.85
12. RISP $1,050,223.54
13. Spudd $1,027,057.89
14. kite_rider $1,021,989.76
15. MizRosie $1,000,000.00
16. longshot345kv $1,000,000.00
17. lawrencewendall $989,760.20
18. RiskyBusinessC2 $986,717.69
19. BohoII $957,390.77
20. lbymfreddie $955,401.32
21. trashcan12 $952,604.07
22. Fermion $865,555.02

 

[easysurfer]

I'm beginning to think you are just trolling us (well, actually, I've thought it for a while, all the way back to your "Rock, Paper, Scissors" posts, but giving the benefit of the doubt).

....

-ERD50

Early on I thought Boho was just trolling us. But not any more.

I wonder though, after the contest is over, will Boho come to the conclusion that stock [-]guessing[/-] picking isn't as easy as it seems or will he still believe, with the proper diet and exercise, he can consistently beat the market.

 

[Boho]

Early on I thought Boho was just trolling us. But not any more.

I wonder though, after the contest is over, will Boho come to the conclusion that stock [-]guessing[/-] picking isn't as easy as it seems or will he still believe, with the proper diet and exercise, he can consistently beat the market.

I've recently been trading multiple times a day with excellent results. I'm now at $971,848.26. I'm starting to think of things I can do to get approved for a margin account with Fidelity so I can trade like this in real life (with no penalties from buying with unsettled funds). So, you can probably guess what my prediction is for the contest. Somehow I'm motivated to keep trading like this for the contest, for now. We'll see if I could keep it up.

 

[easysurfer]

I've recently been trading multiple times a day with excellent results. I'm now at $971,848.26. I'm starting to think of things I can do to get approved for a margin account with Fidelity so I can trade like this in real life (with no penalties from buying with unsettled funds). So, you can probably guess what my prediction is for the contest. Somehow I'm motivated to keep trading like this for the contest, for now. We'll see if I could keep it up.

Nothing like real life as a gut check test.

Good to trade in similar fashion real and contest to compare. That's what I'm doing ... for the most part. I have my allocation tilted a bit more towards safety real life, but compareable.

 

[sengsational]

I like the Boho spunk. I've seen it before. I've personally known two guys and a third guys as an acquaintance...all three quit their job to trade.

All of them are currently back in the wage slave category and don't trade any more.

Now, that's not to say that Boho can't do it. It's just that in my experience, it was harder than it seemed. It was always "that one that got away" that turned the tide.

Most of the stories I heard from my former trader guys were the big hits. Kind of like any gambler, you talk about your wins. But when you see them again and you ask how's the trading going and they say "Oh, yeah, well, I got out of that and went back to work", it's hard to avoid answering "what happened". The answer was usually something along the lines of "I was doing great, but there was the one trade that just got away from me." So it's not "oh, it was unsustainable and I quit", it's more like "if it weren't for this trade or these few trades, I would still be doing it".

Just my observations. Now, that being said, since this is a "GAME", I'm doing something goofy in my portfolio. I wouldn't do this with all my real money, but it's kind of boring being in a game where you set an asset allocation and stick to it, lol!

 

[Boho]

Same story with me. I bet too big on something that seemed really good and it wasn't and I stopped trading IRL. I started trading like that because I had restrictions put on my two trading accounts from the numerous small, safer day trades I'd been making and I wanted to try holding a little longer and stop buying with unsettled funds. After a very successful April using the safe method, I immediately failed with DRAD using the "new improved" method. Now in the contest I don't pile up on the same stock as much as I used to. I can lose on one without it being catastrophic. I may go back to real life trading but I'm still holding DRAD and I'm not ready to sell to free up trading money. I've been thinking about it daily, but not yet.

 

[braumeister]

I bet too big on something that seemed really good and it wasn't.

As someone recently pointed out, it's just as hard to deliberately lose at Rock/Paper/Scissors as it is to try to win.

 

[easysurfer]

I've recently been trading multiple times a day with excellent results. I'm now at $971,848.26. I'm starting to think of things I can do to get approved for a margin account with Fidelity so I can trade like this in real life (with no penalties from buying with unsettled funds). So, you can probably guess what my prediction is for the contest. Somehow I'm motivated to keep trading like this for the contest, for now. We'll see if I could keep it up.

On second thought, what I really should have said is "I rest my case" .

But skeptics make the best believers. There's still time for you .

 

[ERD50]

On second thought, what I really should have said is "I rest my case" .

But skeptics make the best believers. There's still time for you .

Yep, Boho came into this forum guns ablaze, he knows how traders think, he can win at Rock, Papers, Scissors, he can easily surpass the majority of traders, and certainly the old, dull indexers!

But he's always lagging, and always changing strategy. The next algorithm is the 'big winner'!

As I keep saying, there's no telling how a stock trader might do in a contest like this. There will be volatility with a few holdings, could go either way. But so far, the majority of pickers ain't doin' too well. Even a small sample size so far is showing us what we already know, if we've learned from the available data.

-ERD50

 

[easysurfer]

We do need (for the sake of the contest, not that I'm wishing for one ) a big market drop though, to see how well the different strategies play out. As up to this point, market's been going up up up mostly.

 

[Boho]

Some of you aren't even trying to pay attention. My trades are overwhelmingly successful, and I trade a lot. I don't keep track of what other traders are doing. When I lost I took a break so I stayed down. I changed strategy once to be a little more diversified. Has anyone been in the top 1 or 2 or 3 more than me? I was there for a good while but I lost track. With my daily trading I may actually have a less volatile portfolio than Nunnun.

 

[ERD50]

We do need (for the sake of the contest, not that I'm wishing for one ) a big market drop though, to see how well the different strategies play out. As up to this point, market's been going up up up mostly.

Well, the same studies don't show that traders do any better in down markets either.

So let's just skip another test!

Some of you aren't even trying to pay attention. My trades are overwhelmingly successful, ...

Then how come the published rankings consistently have you far behind indexer/buy/hold nun? Are you keeping score in some parallel universe or something? Hey, it's your contest. Just sayin'

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

Then how come the published rankings consistently have you far behind indexer/buy/hold nun? Are you keeping score in some parallel universe or something? Hey, it's your contest. Just sayin'

-ERD50

It was like a couple of drops, then a steady rise. (maybe a handful of drops and an amazingly consistent rise). I'm not going to jump ahead of nun just by making a couple dozen good trades. I'm gaining at better than indexer speed but I'll be behind for a while.

Here are some recent trades of mine for anyone who's interested.

 

[ERD50]

... I'm gaining at better than indexer speed but I'll be behind for a while.

Here are some recent trades of mine for anyone who's interested.

No you're not.

BoHo
$965,126.00 12/08/17
$934,347.00 10/24/17

3.29%


SPY SPY
$265.51 12/08/17
$256.56 10/24/17

3.49%

Dozens of trades and still lagging a do-nothing?

Wake me when/if you've bypassed nun for longer than you have lagged.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

No you're not.

I don't keep track so carefully. I did a very rough estimate based on a good stock market year. Hopefully Nunnun's fund did especially well during that 1-2 month period. *shrug*

 

[ERD50]

I don't keep track so carefully. I did a very rough estimate based on a good stock market year. Hopefully Nunnun's fund did especially well during that 1-2 month period. *shrug*

What the heck are you talking about? "Based on a good stock market year"?

Nun's fund didn't do "especially well", it replicated the market, which anyone can do while napping.

I think you are in denial at this point.

-ERD50

 

[SecondCor521]

I think you are in denial at this point.

Surprised you're just realizing that. (When I realized (plonk!))

 

[Boho]

What the heck are you talking about? "Based on a good stock market year"?

Nun's fund didn't do "especially well", it replicated the market, which anyone can do while napping.

I think you are in denial at this point.

-ERD50

I looked it up again: "The average annualized return of the S&P 500 Index was about 11.69% from 1973 - 2016." I used a figure close to that as average and determined that I've been doing better recently. Both 3.29% and 3.49% over a slightly more than one month period is way better than average market performane. OK, so I guess I was a little behind that exceptional past month in stock market history. It doesn't seem like a big deal.

 

[Boho]

And I'll add that I've been holding a lot of cash while not being too far behind nunnun's gains. That's like insurance.

 

[ERD50]

I looked it up again: "The average annualized return of the S&P 500 Index was about 11.69% from 1973 - 2016." I used a figure close to that as average and determined that I've been doing better recently. Both 3.29% and 3.49% over a slightly more than one month period is way better than average market performane. OK, so I guess I was a little behind that exceptional past month in stock market history. It doesn't seem like a big deal.

That is the most ignorant performance comparison I've ever seen. You are either trolling us, or actually are extremely ignorant of how performance is measured, and in that case, you should stop trading until you learn the basics. Once you've learned the basics, you'll probably stop trading anyhow

But I'm (strongly, almost falling over, catch me!) leaning towards trolling.

Obviously, it makes absolutely no sense whatsoever to compare ~ 6 weeks performance to decades. And regardless, your performance lags the sleeper approach of just buying the market in that time. There are many, many 6 week periods that are far better than the average. Ever hear of volatility? It's slapping you in the face (and mostly downward volatility, the 'bad' kind!).

So far, your stock picking stinks. It's awful. You invest time, will owe more taxes, just to earn less than if you just bought and held a market fund/ETF.

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

And I'll add that I've been holding a lot of cash while not being too far behind nunnun's gains. That's like insurance.

No, that's a drag on performance. Look it up!

And you are far behind nunnun - look it up!

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

See, this is one of the reasons I wanted this to be one year. I'd have invested with the shorter time frame in mind and I bet I'd be ahead of nunnun by now. In a three year contest there's time to fall this far behind and still come out ahead at my current rate of return. If the market continues to do as well as it has in the past month and goes up 30+% per year, then maybe I'll lose. That's not likely.

I'm quicker to sell now. That's enough to protect me from what made me fall behind, not that I really NEEDED to change anything. I saw some of the randomness you people talk about. I've seen it create increased value in some of my stocks. When they go down for dumb reasons they're likely to rise more than I expected down the road.

No, that's a drag on performance. Look it up!

You can't be a trader without cash and you can't do what I've done and come close to nunnun in a strong market while having insurance against a crash. People diversify with securities that return 10% less than the stock market for a reason. I'm not as far behind nunnun as that and I still have that security with my cash and my stock picking.

 

[REWahoo]

I'm confused. Is this a stock-picking or excuse-making contest?

 

[SecondCor521]

I'm confused. Is this a stock-picking or excuse-making contest?

Well, he's winning one of them...