Stock Picking (Beat Boho) Contest - V2.0

[Boho]

So even when you end up with a winning stock, your timing doesn't get you any better than the market did (while nunnun napped). It's uncannily, almost exactly the same as market returns:



-ERD50

I think that's pretty good in a strong market. As I said:

I think I should do as well as the S&P when the market is up and somewhat better when the market is down. That's if I continue trading as much as I have been in recent weeks.

 

[SecondCor521]

No. Bought 13000 shares on 7/11/2017 for $26.87, sold on 10/18/2017 for $27.88.

$362,440 - $349,310 = $13,130.

Bummer. From the day you sold it to today, ARNA is up 52.1%. The S&P is only up 7.12%:

https://finance.google.com/finance?...=NASDAQ:ARNA&ntsp=1&ei=5dZSWvifEoG32AbA94LoDA

Your 13,000 shares would be worth $530,920.

 

[ERD50]

Bummer. From the day you sold it to today, ARNA is up 52.1%. The S&P is only up 7.12%:

https://finance.google.com/finance?...=NASDAQ:ARNA&ntsp=1&ei=5dZSWvifEoG32AbA94LoDA

Your 13,000 shares would be worth $530,920.

He's waiting for a down market.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boho
I think I should do as well as the S&P when the market is up and somewhat better when the market is down. That's if I continue trading as much as I have been in recent weeks.

-ERD50

 

[SecondCor521]

I think I should do as well as the S&P when the market is up and somewhat better when the market is down. That's if I continue trading as much as I have been in recent weeks.

Except you haven't. If you had, you'd be ahead of nunnun, right? Did you slip past him while I wasn't watching?

Maybe the trouble is your trading frequency. Maybe you need to trade more, since trading less would be more like nunnun.

As an added bonus, I bet most analysts you follow would support you trading more if you asked them for their analysis on your trading frequency.

That's it. You're not trading enough. More "diversification"!!!

 

[Boho]

Except you haven't. If you had, you'd be ahead of nunnun, right? Did you slip past him while I wasn't watching?

Look at it as a prediction based on my analysis. Some unusual things happened with two or three stocks and I stopped trading for a while. The big picture I'm looking at is pretty encouraging. I don't load up on one stock like I used to and such a high percentage of trades work out that I'm encouraged.

 

[ERD50]

Look at it as a prediction based on my analysis. Some unusual things happened with two or three stocks and I stopped trading for a while. The big picture I'm looking at is pretty encouraging. I don't load up on one stock like I used to and such a high percentage of trades work out that I'm encouraged.

But you came into this forum with all this bravado that you knew how beat the market. Now it sounds more like a work-in-progress, and you're learning as you go, and, and, and?

Here is my "prediction based on my analysis". What you describe as "unusual things happened with two or three stocks" are actually very usual. Individual picks like you are making are volatile, and the "unusual" should be expected (but it can't be predicted!).

Good luck!

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

But you came into this forum with all this bravado that you knew how beat the market.

I'm not so sure about that. I kept finding things that support both sides. And I wasn't so happy with A Random Walk Down Wall Street. Stuff like that.

...I'm remembering more now, like some study that supposedly shows that past performance doesn't indicate future results for various time frames. It was missing a short term time frame, like 3 or 6 months. It was a glaring omission to me but everyone seemed to be satisfied that it proves you shouldn't buy on past performance.

 

[ERD50]

I'm not so sure about that. I kept finding things that support both sides. And I wasn't so happy with A Random Walk Down Wall Street. Stuff like that.

...I'm remembering more now, like some study that supposedly shows that past performance doesn't indicate future results for various time frames. It was missing a short term time frame, like 3 or 6 months. It was a glaring omission to me but everyone seemed to be satisfied that it proves you shouldn't buy on past performance.

That's as convoluted to me as your opening thread "New expert investor who's not sure what he's doing". An 'expert' that doesn't know what he's doing? Some of the 'challenges' to your comments ring as true today as they did back then.

So you are saying it's short term performance that matters? May be so - and your short term performance is very poor.

Oh, I'll try to ignore this thread until the next EOM update. Snooze. I'll get my entertainment elsewhere.

-ERD50

 

[harley]

wow - 567 posts to this thread! And how many are about actual stock picking versus bragging/'bashing'?

Well, if you subtract the posts by ERD50 and Boho poking at each other like kids in the back seats, there's probably only about 50.

 

[Boho]

Ahh, so I guess I did forget that you were in the lead for what, a couple selected weeks in June of 2017?

I remember being last very early on and quickly rising. On April 3 I think I was second, expecting to be first:

Got me to take a peek at your trades. Does look like you'll be ahead.

 

[SecondCor521]

I remember being last very early on and quickly rising. On April 3 I think I was second, expecting to be first:

So, in a contest that is scheduled to last three years, you were in first place on the third trading day of the contest! Color me impressed. (Not.)

 

[Boho]

So, in a contest that is scheduled to last three years, you were in first place on the third trading day of the contest! Color me impressed. (Not.)

And ERD50 said I was ahead in June, so April through June is at least how long I was one of the leaders but I didn't confirm the date of the end of my reign. Someone commented on it though. I'm just not using the right keywords.

 

[easysurfer]

So, in a contest that is scheduled to last three years, you were in first place on the third trading day of the contest! Color me impressed. (Not.)

Boho did have a lead off single in the first inning of the ballgame. Gotta give him credit for that .

 

[Boho]

The Today's Change in Value column is once again fully populated (for those who actually have holdings) whether there's a transaction or not, so I guess the Rankings table is up do date again.

 

[ERD50]

Well, if you subtract the posts by ERD50 and Boho poking at each other like kids in the back seats, there's probably only about 50.

I'd say you are being kind

But even I am tiring of this, and will attempt to hold back on any comments, at least until the EOM standings are posted. I suspect those will (continue) to speak for themselves?

-ERD50

 

[RISP]

Boho did have a lead off single in the first inning of the ballgame.

Too bad he was picked off first base immediately.

 

[Boho]

Let's see what happens with fear over a government shutdown. Personally I'm at a 6 month high.

 

[Boho]

I have a large open trade for OSIS that didn't execute yet and is listed as "N/A" and can't be changed or canceled. Status "pending." And it's a time sensitive market order.

 

[Boho]

OSIS was bought and I could sell if I want.

Now I have the same issue with EQIX. I there's no option to cancel. It's just waiting the 20 minutes before it's bought. I thought stocks were cancelable during the 20 minutes. Am I forgetting?

 

[exnavynuke]

I'm still happy betting on the broad market and the financial sector...

 

[sengsational]

Am I forgetting?

The game is set-up so that you can't cancel when markets are open because otherwise one could get up to some monkey-business. You can't even put in a sell order for the thing you have a buy order open on.

I know this, not because I was up to no good, but because I fat-fingered something. I had to wait over a weekend to get that straightened-out.

 

[Boho]

The game is set-up so that you can't cancel when markets are open because otherwise one could get up to some monkey-business. You can't even put in a sell order for the thing you have a buy order open on.

I know this, not because I was up to no good, but because I fat-fingered something. I had to wait over a weekend to get that straightened-out.

Wow, OK, I was sure something changed and I couldn't find anything about the canceling rules. I would have canceled or changed my OSIS order. I guess the cancellations I remember making were to sell orders.

So my portfolio is pretty full with things I intend to hold for a while. I think I'll take a trading break.

 

[Boho]

You could cancel limit orders (at least in the past) when the market is open, can't you? Hard to believe I've never done that.

 

[Boho]

It's interesting that nunnun was one of the smallest gainers on Friday. Maybe the regular index stocks are what people sell when they're worried, except the market was up on Friday. I wonder if it reflects Saturday international trading.

 

[easysurfer]

It's interesting that nunnun was one of the smallest gainers on Friday. Maybe the regular index stocks are what people sell when they're worried, except the market was up on Friday. I wonder if it reflects Saturday international trading.

Boho, you do have a trader's mindset .

SP500 only gained 0.44% on Friday. So, nunnun's portfolio did exactly what it was supposed to do ... keep pace with the indexes nunnun is following . That's the beauty of being an index investor.