Stock Picking (Beat Boho) Contest - V2.0

[sengsational]

You have my vote for the most likely to win the game.

Player|Rank|Stock|Start|Start$|End|End/Now$|Gain/Loss
Totoro_ERF|

2​

|

DB​

|

03/30/2017​

|

184,076​

|

05/30/2017​

|

195,516​

|

6%​

|
|

​

|

AER​

|

05/30/2017​

|

223,350​

|

Open​

|

270,550​

|

21%​

|
|

​

|

AER​

|

05/30/2017​

|

265,080​

|

Open​

|

324,660​

|

22%​

|
|

​

|

BKE​

|

05/30/2017​

|

68,200​

|

Open​

|

83,000​

|

22%​

|
|

​

|

MIK​

|

05/30/2017​

|

234,480​

|

Open​

|

312,120​

|

33%​

|
|

​

|

PII​

|

05/30/2017​

|

252,570​

|

Open​

|

404,100​

|

60%​

|

 

[Boho]

Look at where he has $404,100. They make recreational vehicles. They may have peaked. They were even stronger in 2014-2015 before taking a one year dive followed by a year of volatility.

 

[sengsational]

They make these. No wonder they're making money. I want one!

 

[ERD50]

Look at where he has $404,100. They make recreational vehicles. They may have peaked. They were even stronger in 2014-2015 before taking a one year dive followed by a year of volatility.

Are you still believing your own press releases? Isn't being around 18th place and ~ $185K behind the market index telling you anything about your predictive capabilities, or lack thereof, or maybe that it's a counter-indicator?

Hints to the #2 guy, from the #18 guy is pretty funny! Or is it sad?

I'm guessing now, if he does anything, it will be to hold, since you are thinking sell!

Ya can't make this stuff up! Well, unless you can (are we being trolled?).

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

Is it the end of the month already?

I'm just talking about buying low and selling high. It's about as high as it's ever been and there's a history of that not lasting. Maybe there's more wide open space and disposable income for people to want those things and they'll maintain their lead. I don't look too deeply at those things. Highs that aren't part of a steady historical pattern mean sell to me. To me they mean sell even when they're clearly cyclical too, but that's mainly because I'm a day trader.

 

[Totoro]

Look at where he has $404,100. They make recreational vehicles. They may have peaked. They were even stronger in 2014-2015 before taking a one year dive followed by a year of volatility.

Yup. They took a dive because of an expensive product recall. I figured their brand can whether the storm in the mid to long term, also given their strong market position, while in the meantime they still are a profitable business and reasonably valued at current prices, and there you go. So you get paid to wait (in theory). The recovery was much much faster than I expected though. Good for them (and me, incidently).

I agree that they probably had a full recovery, but as said I haven't had time to reassess and find better 'new' targets. That said, it's still a great business with high returns on capital, and a longer term double digit revenue growth.

And as always, luck vs. expertise .. who knows.

 

[ERD50]

...

And as always, luck vs. expertise .. who knows.

Ahhh, humility from someone near the top in this contest. So refreshing and so much nicer to hear in this thread than bragging/excuses from a, ummm, someone else .

Good luck/expertise to you going forward!

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

RNR, that insurance company that took a hit from the California fires, that I have $286,066.00 invested in, is finally up. Total gain 1.48%. Up 5.84% today. So, finally I'll be rid of that when it sells in 20 minutes.

 

[sengsational]

Ya can't make this stuff up! Well, unless you can (are we being trolled?).

Here's what I imagine is happening...

 

[ERD50]

Here's what I imagine is happening...

Guilty as charged!

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

You could cancel limit orders (at least in the past) when the market is open, can't you? Hard to believe I've never done that.

Yes, limit orders could be canceled, but not market orders. Wish I realized this. All I have to do if I want a market order is set a wildly high limit, then I could cancel.

 

[sengsational]

As of the end of the week's trading...

K$|counts|best|worst

Player|Rank|Value of All|Value of:Open|Cash Balance|Average Cash
comsecga|

3​

|

$1,521K​

|

$794K​

|

$-101K​

|

$-16K​

|
exnavynuke|

2​

|

$1,520K​

|

$1,295K​

|

$-289K​

|

$-395K​

|
Totoro_ERF|

4​

|

$1,411K​

|

$1,429K​

|

$-18K​

|

$149K​

|
up98down34|

1​

|

$1,406K​

|

$787K​

|

$7K​

|

$158K​

|
Fermion1|

5​

|

$1,328K​

|

$0K​

|

$598K​

|

$682K​

|
DieWurst|

6​

|

$1,289K​

|

$1,289K​

|

$0K​

|

$12K​

|
nunnun|

7​

|

$1,229K​

|

$1,213K​

|

$16K​

|

$11K​

|
kite_rider|

8​

|

$1,190K​

|

$847K​

|

$342K​

|

$752K​

|
sengsational|

9​

|

$1,185K​

|

$1,012K​

|

$6K​

|

$34K​

|
RISP|

10​

|

$1,164K​

|

$1,039K​

|

$1K​

|

$59K​

|
nvestysly|

12​

|

$1,153K​

|

$1,023K​

|

$0K​

|

$530K​

|
cfahey27|

11​

|

$1,150K​

|

$787K​

|

$4K​

|

$604K​

|
lbymfreddie|

13​

|

$1,131K​

|

$1,120K​

|

$11K​

|

$91K​

|
Spudd|

14​

|

$1,123K​

|

$1,121K​

|

$2K​

|

$275K​

|
easysurfer|

15​

|

$1,120K​

|

$580K​

|

$114K​

|

$322K​

|
RiskyBusinessC2|

17​

|

$1,075K​

|

$845K​

|

$230K​

|

$680K​

|
Clone2|

16​

|

$1,072K​

|

$1,071K​

|

$1K​

|

$898K​

|
BohoII|

18​

|

$1,032K​

|

$684K​

|

$347K​

|

$339K​

|
lawrencewendall|

19​

|

$1,015K​

|

$1,670K​

|

$-655K​

|

$-507K​

|
MizRosie|

22​

|

$1,000K​

|

$0K​

|

$1,000K​

|

$1,000K​

|
Gayl|

21​

|

$1,000K​

|

$0K​

|

$1,000K​

|

$1,000K​

|
garyweis|

23​

|

$1,000K​

|

$0K​

|

$1,000K​

|

$1,000K​

|
longshot345kv|

20​

|

$1,000K​

|

$0K​

|

$1,000K​

|

$1,000K​

|
trashcan12|

25​

|

$979K​

|

$809K​

|

$78K​

|

$120K​

|
Fermion|

26​

|

$680K​

|

$416K​

|

$264K​

|

$738K​

|

|

Current Open|Long Trades|Short Trades|Option Trades|R/T Trades|R/T-Unique Stocks

3​

|

27​

|

4​

|

0​

|

11​

|

10​

|

3​

|

12​

|

0​

|

0​

|

5​

|

3​

|

4​

|

7​

|

0​

|

0​

|

1​

|

1​

|

2​

|

12​

|

0​

|

0​

|

1​

|

1​

|

0​

|

16​

|

1​

|

0​

|

9​

|

5​

|

3​

|

8​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

2​

|

2​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

6​

|

6​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

25​

|

108​

|

0​

|

0​

|

41​

|

31​

|

10​

|

31​

|

6​

|

1​

|

11​

|

7​

|

18​

|

23​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

3​

|

5​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

4​

|

20​

|

0​

|

0​

|

6​

|

3​

|

8​

|

86​

|

2​

|

3​

|

48​

|

29​

|

2​

|

18​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

4​

|

5​

|

2​

|

12​

|

4​

|

3​

|

2​

|

2​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

3​

|

214​

|

0​

|

0​

|

114​

|

62​

|

8​

|

19​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

5​

|

9​

|

0​

|

0​

|

2​

|

1​

|

2​

|

2​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

|

Ticker Stock|Gain Loss|Gain/Loss Percent
SHOP|

$143K​

|

80%​

|
FAS|

$237K​

|

67%​

|
PII|

$152K​

|

60%​

|
MNKD|

$215K​

|

100%​

|
NVDA|

$29K​

|

7%​

|
VWO|

$141K​

|

28%​

|
VOO|

$108K​

|

21%​

|
ANET|

$95K​

|

50%​

|
IRMD|

$27K​

|

76%​

|
BXC|

$35K​

|

52%​

|
INTC|

$21K​

|

43%​

|
AAPL|

$55K​

|

12%​

|
BOFI|

$186K​

|

38%​

|
CNCE|

$66K​

|

31%​

|
VXUS|

$43K​

|

18%​

|
EDF|

$43K​

|

9%​

|
DE|

$41K​

|

8%​

|
ANW|

$25K​

|

4%​

|
SDYL|

$16K​

|

28%​

|
none|

$0K​

|

?%​

|
none|

$0K​

|

?%​

|
none|

$0K​

|

?%​

|
none|

$0K​

|

?%​

|
PEY|

$30K​

|

9%​

|
none|

$0K​

|

?%​

|

|

Ticker Stock|Gain Loss|Gain/Loss Percent
GIMO|

$-59K​

|

-21%​

|
SOXL|

$-36K​

|

-7%​

|
DB|

$11K​

|

6%​

|
O|

$11K​

|

4%​

|
ECYT|

$-37K​

|

-23%​

|
VEU|

$44K​

|

22%​

|
VTI|

$106K​

|

21%​

|
BABA|

$4K​

|

15%​

|
ICON|

$-23K​

|

-70%​

|
SBH|

$-18K​

|

-18%​

|
GE|

$-18K​

|

-33%​

|
MU|

$21K​

|

14%​

|
TEVA|

$-163K​

|

-51%​

|
BB|

$-101K​

|

-20%​

|
BND|

$-4K​

|

-1%​

|
TICC|

$-1K​

|

-18%​

|
CAT|

$32K​

|

6%​

|
RAD|

$-163K​

|

-26%​

|
FTR|

$-79K​

|

-40%​

|
none|

$0K​

|

?%​

|
none|

$0K​

|

?%​

|
none|

$0K​

|

?%​

|
none|

$0K​

|

?%​

|
DES|

$-100K​

|

-63%​

|
CLSN|

$-258K​

|

-52%​

|

 

[Boho]

I'd be neck and neck with nunnun if not for Rite Aid. One stock out of 214 trades.

 

[Boho]

I'm constantly allowed to buy, all at once, far more than I'm allowed to sell all at once. I wonder if the volume rules are different for buys and sells or if I'm just noticing when it affects me badly.

 

[easysurfer]

With the market taking a hit the past couple of days, my chance to make up some ground on nunnun.

 

[Boho]

...and of course today, with ANFI down, I can sell all I want. I think ERD bought Investopedia and is messing with me.

 

[ERD50]

EOM update anyone?

Thanks -ERD50

 

[Boho]

Sengsational's is better but:

 

[Boho]

All hell could break lose on Friday when the Russia memo is released so this coming week may be interesting.

 

[ERD50]

Sengsational's is better but:

By 'better' do you mean more accurate or up-to-date (something to do with portfolio values only updated with an "event"?)?

If I have this right, what you posted shows, compared to last month, and compared to our proxy for "the market", napper nunnun:

Boho: _____ $993,718 ___ $1,020,569 +$26,851 +2.70%

nunnun: __ $1,147,362 __ $1,208,563 +$61,201 +5.33%

And overall, $187,994 behind nunnunn, an 18.8% gap.


-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

I'd be neck and neck with nunnun if not for Rite Aid. One stock out of 214 trades.

Ever notice how it is only the one who is behind that uses a phrase like "neck and neck"? The leader simply says "I'm in the lead".

"If not for Rite Aid"? When you trade, sometimes you have a big loser. There are no do-overs in real life stock picking.

And what if we adjusted "the market" proxy, and removed the biggest losers (that would be quite a few stocks that could be filtered out at the ratio of 1/214)? It probably would not change it much due to diversification (see the lesson in that?), but "neck and neck" could only move you to "even further behind".

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

By 'better' do you mean more accurate or up-to-date (something to do with portfolio values only updated with an "event"?)?

He developed that scraper and he shows more information.

If I have this right, what you posted shows, compared to last month, and compared to our proxy for "the market", napper nunnun:

Boho: _____ $993,718 ___ $1,020,569 +$26,851 +2.70%

nunnun: __ $1,147,362 __ $1,208,563 +$61,201 +5.33%

And overall, $187,994 behind nunnunn, an 18.8% gap.

I assume the market did well in the last month. I don't try to predict that when I set my sell orders. I just take advantage of "high enough" prices. Sometimes I make more than I intended because of the 20 minute rule, and sometimes that rule (and other things unique to this contest) hurt me, but overwhelmingly I get a good return.

And what if we adjusted "the market" proxy, and removed the biggest losers (that would be quite a few stocks that could be filtered out at the ratio of 1/214)?

Making use of that information (which stocks were the biggest losers) would be more difficult. It's not as difficult for me to find something unique about Rite Aid that I could learn from. IIRC, it was well reported what a "good outcome" for Rite Aid would be. It happened, yet there was a sell off because people wanted something better, like what had previously been hoped for. I read an article to the effect that investors should have known. It probably made me feel a little bit less trusting of the masses. So much for the "big guys" taking advantage of something I don't know. It appears that those guys and the other investors held on to Rite Aid based on wildly wishful or uninformed thinking and sold based on what I already knew was the best case scenario.

But I didn't learn enough of a lesson. I saw price patterns and ordered OSIS, then I read more and couldn't figure out why the price didn't drop more. I didn't trust that investors set a reasonable price and tried to cancel the order before filled. That's when I learned that you could only cancel limit orders. It's the only time in this contest that I posted my regret for ordering a stock before the order was filled. OSIS is down 19.11% today because they're being investigated by the SEC for the same reason they're being sued in a class action and I'm down 24% overall. I like to think that in real life, the extra research I did after ordering would have been done before ordering, and if I still bought, I would have sold immediately without suffering the loss from a 20 minute delay.

 

[ERD50]

.... but overwhelmingly I get a good return. ...

The numbers say otherwise. The do-nothing-buy-the-market approach has provided 10x the returns of your stock picking methods. You are behind even if we give you a 'mulligan' on your worst trade. You are either in denial, or trolling us.

.... But I didn't learn enough of a lesson. ....

And if you haven't learned it by now, I'm not sure you ever will.

Good Luck!

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

The numbers say otherwise. The do-nothing-buy-the-market approach has provided 10x the returns of your stock picking methods. You are behind even if we give you a 'mulligan' on your worst trade. You are either in denial, or trolling us.

Last I checked I'd be one place under nunnun, neck and neck. Too close for any conclusions except for who's technically ahead.

And if you haven't learned it by now, I'm not sure you ever will.

The lesson is that the market lies and inefficiencies can be found without sub-second trading ability. (more than I already knew)

 

[ERD50]

Last I checked I'd be one place under nunnun, neck and neck. [-]Two[/-] Too close for any conclusions except for who's technically ahead. ...

It's your contest. Who is ahead (is that somehow different from "technically ahead"?) is what your contest is about.

And only 8 of 26 so far are not "beating Boho", and it appears that 5 of those aren't actually playing (exactly $1,000,000 I assume cash, or never placed a trade?). So > 2/3rds beating you of the 26, and if we remove the non-players that's > 80% "beating Boho".

The lesson is that the market lies and inefficiencies can be found without sub-second trading ability. (more than I already knew)

And yet, with this knowledge, you still dragged behind the market benchmark, with a 2.70% gain versus 5.33% for the market. There's a lesson in there alright, you just haven't seen it yet.

Good Luck!

-ERD50