Stock Picking (Beat Boho) Contest - V2.0

[natetheb]

I use a certain procedure to identify a certain class of stocks that are experiencing an unexplained dip and I buy those under certain conditions. If I cant find any, I look for certain kinds of explained dips that I believe are due to overreactions or other kinds of investor error or that I believe are temporary.

Kind of vague. What kind of "certain procedure?" I mean what are you truly looking for? What convinced you this method is feasible? Did you pick it up through a specific book? What are your measures of success? What will convince you this method is good long term or not?

 

[ERD50]

Here's my most recent trade history:

That's some prodigious specific stock risk you show there!

Looks like 2 stocks, RTN and AGM, make up (excuse me - 'made up') over half your portfolio?

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

Kind of vague. What kind of "certain procedure?" I mean what are you truly looking for? What convinced you this method is feasible? Did you pick it up through a specific book? What are your measures of success? What will convince you this method is good long term or not?

I want to keep it a little vague. I don't know if I could say I'm totally "convinced" that it works but it went through a small evolution from a system that seemed to work with around 10-20 trades over a 1-2 month period, so I consider it slightly new and improved. Whether this contest backs it up so far is a little complicated. I've discussed that before.

No book was involved but I think I've used something I learned (and don't fully remember) from this forum or some study I came across. It's stats that show past performance doesn't indicate future results after a fairly short amount of time passes since the past performance. But the predictive value of past results over an even shorter time frame wasn't reported IIRC.

I also read that momentum investing works and maybe that's similar to using past results during the shorter time frame. The reason momentum investing isn't used by mutual funds is that it's expensive. They apparently make more money by doing something less labor intensive but I don't know what fund managers do and I don't think it would help me even if I did. Unlike fund managers, I wouldn't be getting a pay check for my stock picking if it doesn't beat the market. I'd be down. Momentum investing an option for me, but I just kind of dabble in it and I don't know exactly how it's supposed to be done. I'd like to read a good book on it at some point. There must at least be an article on it somewhere.

 

[Boho]

That's some prodigious specific stock risk you show there!

Looks like 2 stocks, RTN and AGM, make up (excuse me - 'made up') over half your portfolio?

Yeah, something like that.

 

[Boho]

I'm back from my months long vacation. I made a quick $1500 from buying and selling ENDP. But I don't think I'll be trading daily like I did several months ago.

 

[ERD50]

I'm back from my months long vacation. I made a quick $1500 from buying and selling ENDP. But I don't think I'll be trading daily like I did several months ago.

So did that ~ 0.15% bump push you past our B&H market proxy, nunnun? I'm guessing nunnun made a quick ~ $18,000 today? Market up ~ 1.8% as I write.


-ERD50

 

[Boho]

So did that ~ 0.15% bump push you past our B&H market proxy, nunnun? I'm guessing nunnun made a quick ~ $18,000 today? Market up ~ 1.8% as I write.

Nunnun is up about $22,000. I'm only up about $1,000. I just read "Every midterm election over the past 60 years has been followed by a rise in stocks." I probably sold low.

 

[ERD50]

Nunnun is up about $22,000. I'm only up about $1,000. I just read "Every midterm election over the past 60 years has been followed by a rise in stocks." I probably sold low.

Gee, I wonder if there is a lesson in there somewhere?

-ERD50

 

[SecondCor521]

Gee, I wonder if there is a lesson in there somewhere?

-ERD50

Like "You can lead a horse to water..."?

 

[sengsational]

nunnun, our B&H indexer, is doing great after today's broad gains. I'd take that over any of those "beating" him/her. Of course if it had been a couple of years of down markets, there might be a few more people with narrow picks that beat the index.

K$|counts|best|worst

Player|Rank|Value of All|Value of:Open|Cash Balance|Average Cash
Fermion|

1​

|

$1,644K​

|

$1,380K​

|

$264K​

|

$509K​

|
comsecga|

2​

|

$1,513K​

|

$1,613K​

|

$-100K​

|

$-57K​

|
exnavynuke|

3​

|

$1,364K​

|

$1,638K​

|

$-274K​

|

$-339K​

|
Totoro_ERF|

4​

|

$1,319K​

|

$1,151K​

|

$168K​

|

$138K​

|
cfahey27|

6​

|

$1,247K​

|

$1,232K​

|

$15K​

|

$318K​

|
nunnun|

7​

|

$1,220K​

|

$1,189K​

|

$31K​

|

$18K​

|
kite_rider|

8​

|

$1,204K​

|

$529K​

|

$675K​

|

$386K​

|
covert1|

9​

|

$1,196K​

|

$1,192K​

|

$4K​

|

$85K​

|
Spudd|

10​

|

$1,146K​

|

$961K​

|

$185K​

|

$153K​

|
nvestysly|

11​

|

$1,094K​

|

$1,088K​

|

$6K​

|

$279K​

|
easysurfer|

12​

|

$1,088K​

|

$958K​

|

$131K​

|

$226K​

|
cdailey|

18​

|

$1,079K​

|

$1,865K​

|

$-785K​

|

$155K​

|
DieWurst|

13​

|

$1,073K​

|

$1,073K​

|

$0K​

|

$5K​

|
sengsational|

14​

|

$1,058K​

|

$1,057K​

|

$1K​

|

$24K​

|
NormYoung|

17​

|

$1,050K​

|

$939K​

|

$111K​

|

$674K​

|
natetheb|

19​

|

$1,033K​

|

$1,033K​

|

$-0K​

|

$987K​

|
BohoII|

15​

|

$1,032K​

|

$459K​

|

$573K​

|

$346K​

|
KCScubaSteve|

20​

|

$1,030K​

|

$1,025K​

|

$5K​

|

$692K​

|
lawrencewendall|

16​

|

$1,019K​

|

$1,526K​

|

$-507K​

|

$-540K​

|
t3ztam3nt|

21​

|

$1,000K​

|

$5K​

|

$996K​

|

$1,000K​

|
lbymfreddie|

29​

|

$995K​

|

$632K​

|

$363K​

|

$55K​

|
RiskyBusinessC2|

30​

|

$991K​

|

$704K​

|

$287K​

|

$484K​

|
underwrite|

31​

|

$987K​

|

$946K​

|

$41K​

|

$797K​

|
ransil|

32​

|

$943K​

|

$1,605K​

|

$-661K​

|

$627K​

|
Clone2|

33​

|

$914K​

|

$897K​

|

$17K​

|

$472K​

|
RISP|

34​

|

$788K​

|

$764K​

|

$24K​

|

$-26K​

|
Fermion1|

5​

|

$522K​

|

$641K​

|

$-120K​

|

$232K​

|

|

Current Open|Long Trades|Short Trades|Option Trades|R/T Trades|R/T-Uniq

2​

|

2​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

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0​

|

6​

|

27​

|

4​

|

0​

|

13​

|

12​

|

4​

|

12​

|

0​

|

0​

|

5​

|

3​

|

2​

|

11​

|

0​

|

0​

|

4​

|

4​

|

4​

|

5​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

2​

|

2​

|

0​

|

0​

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0​

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0​

|

2​

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25​

|

0​

|

2​

|

10​

|

10​

|

4​

|

14​

|

0​

|

0​

|

1​

|

1​

|

7​

|

123​

|

18​

|

11​

|

78​

|

52​

|

20​

|

28​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

3​

|

18​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

12​

|

12​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

3​

|

11​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

30​

|

178​

|

1​

|

0​

|

80​

|

50​

|

6​

|

7​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

9​

|

13​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

3​

|

313​

|

2​

|

0​

|

193​

|

95​

|

5​

|

5​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

8​

|

19​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

1​

|

1​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

4​

|

33​

|

0​

|

0​

|

16​

|

7​

|

3​

|

5​

|

2​

|

15​

|

1​

|

1​

|

8​

|

8​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

18​

|

237​

|

4​

|

0​

|

108​

|

25​

|

2​

|

2​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

6​

|

38​

|

8​

|

1​

|

21​

|

13​

|

1​

|

16​

|

2​

|

0​

|

10​

|

4​

|

|

Ticker Stock|Gain Loss|Gain/Loss Percent
ECYT|

$942K​

|

391%​

|
SHOP|

$191K​

|

106%​

|
SSO|

$147K​

|

31%​

|
PII|

$106K​

|

42%​

|
AAPL|

$170K​

|

37%​

|
VOO|

$96K​

|

19%​

|
ROKU|

$72K​

|

38%​

|
MNKD|

$66K​

|

30%​

|
LEDS|

$150K​

|

80%​

|
TGT|

$26K​

|

51%​

|
VTI|

$58K​

|

16%​

|
AMZN|

$62K​

|

21%​

|
VNQI|

$10K​

|

3%​

|
IRMD|

$26K​

|

54%​

|
AMZN|

$32K​

|

22%​

|
CQQQ|

$7K​

|

8%​

|
ANW|

$25K​

|

4%​

|
TSLA|

$37K​

|

15%​

|
SDYL|

$11K​

|

20%​

|
BLL|

$0K​

|

11%​

|
BOFI|

$170K​

|

35%​

|
NAVI|

$7K​

|

6%​

|
DIS|

$14K​

|

11%​

|
NVDA|

$22K​

|

10%​

|
none|

$0K​

|

?%​

|
SONC|

$73K​

|

73%​

|
NVDA|

$200K​

|

22%​

|

|

Ticker Stock|Gain Loss|Gain/Loss Percent
CLSN|

$-298K​

|

-60%​

|
GIMO|

$-59K​

|

-21%​

|
SOXL|

$-36K​

|

-7%​

|
DB|

$11K​

|

6%​

|
MU|

$10K​

|

7%​

|
VTI|

$94K​

|

19%​

|
JNUG|

$-26K​

|

-15%​

|
DFE|

$-26K​

|

-8%​

|
BB|

$-101K​

|

-20%​

|
GE|

$-35K​

|

-61%​

|
VXUS|

$-2K​

|

-1%​

|
BABA|

$-26K​

|

-19%​

|
VWO|

$4K​

|

1%​

|
ICON|

$-23K​

|

-70%​

|
VWO|

$-14K​

|

-15%​

|
AGNC|

$0K​

|

1%​

|
RAD|

$-140K​

|

-24%​

|
NVDA|

$-59K​

|

-16%​

|
FTR|

$-140K​

|

-70%​

|
BLL|

$0K​

|

11%​

|
TEVA|

$-163K​

|

-51%​

|
EDF|

$-75K​

|

-16%​

|
GE|

$-33K​

|

-31%​

|
ZG|

$-60K​

|

-37%​

|
CAT|

$-70K​

|

-14%​

|
LB|

$-28K​

|

-27%​

|
KITE|

$-312K​

|

133%​

|

Fermion has the honor of being in first place and last place For newbies to the thread, Fermion1's short sale of KITE was never paid back by the simulation, so my results update for that.

And look at rank 1 Fermion...has a huge winner and a very large loser, and that makes up the entire portfolio!

t3ztam3nt is a new player, just dipping a toe in. And I mean just a toe!

 

[natetheb]

Wait, in less than 10 days of playing this game I am beating Boho?! Wow!

 

[ERD50]

..... Of course if it had been a couple of years of down markets, there might be a few more people with narrow picks that beat the index. ....

I've heard this repeated, but have never seen any evidence that stock pickers do better (relatively) in down markets than up markets. Have any links?

Wait, in less than 10 days of playing this game I am beating Boho?! Wow!

Congrats, do you have a strategy you could share?


-ERD50

 

[natetheb]

Congrats, do you have a strategy you could share?


-ERD50

Sure.

Thanks. Not ideal, but I can definitely work with that. This is good, I hope to compare an investment strategy I am considering for the long term. I am going to try to compare the performance of the standard index fund to some momentum funds, as well as compare against REITs. Also, I am having some fun by investing in Amazon and some Chinese stocks. This will probably be the only time in my life I will ever "own" Amazon stock (too rich for me) so I thought I would have some fun. My current allocation is:


Standard Index: VOO
Momentum Indexes: MTUM, VFMO
Quarterly Dividend REITs: MFA, NYMT, CHIM
Monthly dividend REIT: AGNC
Fun stocks: AMZN, CQQQ


I don't plan on changing anything except selling AMZN after the Christmas purchasing rush is over. I will either reinvest that cash in an international index or VOO.

I will say, my REITs did not perform as good as the S&P yesterday, so my account didn't have as much gains compared to someone indexed to the S&P. That isn't how REITs work, they are in my account for the long-term dividends. Really, I think REITs will be really nice to hold onto when the market inevitably turns down in the next year or two...Though I could be completely wrong and that is why I am trying them out in this "game!"

 

[Boho]

My day trade yesterday prevented me from being down for the day and I gained along with the indexers. So far today I'm up while nunnun is down.

I can't wait for the 12 month performance comparison with nunnun at the end of the year. I was ahead last I checked.

 

[ERD50]

Sure. ....

Wooops, sorry, I missed that (memory is going!). Sounds like a plan. Good luck!

My day trade yesterday prevented me from being down for the day and I gained along with the indexers. So far today I'm up while nunnun is down.

I can't wait for the 12 month performance comparison with nunnun at the end of the year. I was ahead last I checked.

So now we measure by hours?

And when did this become a Trailing Twelve Month contest?

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

...I'm going to wait until more third quarter reports come in before I look again. I think there will be a small window between that and Trump's China meeting when I may buy. Like the second week of November. I almost bought L3 Technologies though.

It's just about the second week of November and the market is down today because of tech and it's been down because of China tariffs. I'm buying an index fund and a manufacturing stock today.

 

[kite_rider]

What is your stock picking method? What are you looking for before you buy shares?

Welcome to the contest! I am participating to see if I can pick stocks and time the market in such a way to 'beat boho' and as many other players as possible while still trading more or less like I do in the 'real world'. It's a 'no cost' opportunity to test personal theories and gut emotions in the market and try things that involve more risk than I would usually take.

As you can see from my trading history, I've sold most of my holdings a few weeks ago. I did this because I felt a correction was overdue and believe that there will be better buying opportunities after this market correction that I expect. Pure market timing I guess; but backed up with a notion that bull markets don't last forever and this one is long overdue for a correction.

The general theme of this thread is mostly about the futility of beating the market as currently represented by 'nunnun'. I've been feeling pretty good about myself since I'd been ahead of nunnun until recently - that's even with the gains that nunnun already had by starting months earlier in this bull market.

We'll see where it goes from here, but it's a great place to act on your 'gut' and see how it goes without costing yourself real $$.

 

[sengsational]

I've heard this repeated, but have never seen any evidence that stock pickers do better (relatively) in down markets than up markets. Have any links

No. Just a thought that my strategy in this game is fallen angel stocks, and if they've already fallen, maybe they'll fall less than the market in general. You could Google Joel Goldblatt and see if the spans when the fallen angel aka magic formula beat the market was in times when the market was generally down (or at least not on a path pretty much consistently up). I haven't looked.

 

[Boho]

I'm buying an index fund and a manufacturing stock today.

Here's the results from the manufacturing stock AOS.

11/12/18 12:13 PM Buy at Market 4000 $45.34 $181,364.99
11/12/18 12:57 PM Sell at Limit 4000 $45.62 $182,475.01
11/12/18 3:16 PM Buy at Limit 7000 $45.36 $317,524.99
11/13/18 10:09 AM Sell at Limit 7000 $46.07 $322,485.01
11/14/18 12:07 PM Buy at Limit 7000 $45.35 $317,454.99
11/15/18 10:33 AM Sell at Limit 7000 $45.63 $319,370.01

But I'm pissed that Trump said good stuff about China today and I forgot to buy after the last sell so I didn't take advantage of what may have been the best day! I didn't even check if it sold yesterday. It would be nice to be able to automate this kind of trading. I wanted to trade this stock all month (at the right price).

 

[Totoro]

I wanted to short oil .. seems it dropped already quite a bit.


Stock picking involves being right, and acting on it. I'm much better at the first than the second myself. A well-trained monkey might actually still be better than me on both accounts.

 

[Boho]

I wanted to buy a NASDAQ fund and found DIA. It didn't sound familiar but it looked like a NASDAQ fund and it looked available in the game but three buy attempts failed for an unknown reason. Then I looked for another NASDAQ fund and found QQQ which sounded familiar and the trade went through. I got some of it for close to the daily low so I think I did good. But I couldn't get AOS again for my price.

 

[Boho]

I think I mean I wanted to buy a DJIA fund.

 

[jazz4cash]

Yikes.

 

[ERD50]

I think I mean I wanted to buy a DJIA fund.

So I'm not the only one confused by this 'strategy'? I was going to ask, but if you don't know, I'm not sure who would.

Yikes.

Double yikes.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

So I'm not the only one confused by this 'strategy'? I was going to ask, but if you don't know, I'm not sure who would.

The market is down for several reasons and it looked like the DJIA was down more than the S&P and I already had an S&P fund and a lot of cash. What's the mystery? I think it's better than 50/50 that we'll strike a deal with China next month. It's time to buy.