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Old 09-22-2015, 01:08 PM   #21
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I am looking at buying puts right now. The VLKAY symbol is $25.50 but I think before all is said and done it will be around $15.

The lawsuits have to be enormous for something like this. It would be on par with Apple admitting something like the Iphone causes cancer.
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Old 09-22-2015, 01:26 PM   #22
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I worked in an auto emission lab in the 80's where we conducted EPA dyno testing for self compliance and emission audits for EPA and CARB........
My first position with MegaMotors in 1981 was in emissions certification and because Mega had had their hands slapped by the EPA in the recent past, we got a lecture on how we had to even avoid the appearance of doing anything underhanded. The EPA rules at the time specifically addressed defeat devices even giving examples like using a hood open sensor to change the control strategy. The cars were run with the hood open on a chassis dynamo meter during the test. In recent years, auto companies just self certify with occasional auditing by the EPA to ensure compliance.
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Old 09-22-2015, 01:36 PM   #23
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My first position with MegaMotors in 1981 was in emissions certification and because Mega had had their hands slapped by the EPA in the recent past, we got a lecture on how we had to even avoid the appearance of doing anything underhanded. The EPA rules at the time specifically addressed defeat devices even giving examples like using a hood open sensor to change the control strategy. The cars were run with the hood open on a chassis dynamo meter during the test. In recent years, auto companies just self certify with occasional auditing by the EPA to ensure compliance.
Why am I not surprised. I dealt with the EPA, OSHA, ISO, UL, etc. all my working life, and they relied way too heavily on industry/manufacturers for most of their data. Sadly, they were easily fooled, often fooled themselves with no help from manufacturers. Their audit sampling was so small it was laughable. At least some of them audited at random, some were pre-scheduled (ridiculous for a supposed 'watchdog').

In all fairness, none of them are nearly funded/staffed to do the job the public probably thinks they do. I personally had those discussions with regulators up and down the food chain, most admitted they are overwhelmed and just do the best they can...

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All new cars and light trucks sold in the U.S. are required to have a economy label posted on the window sticker. The label contains the city and highway miles-per-gallon values, as well as other related information. To calculate these values, laboratory tests are performed on pre-production vehicles. Most testing is performed by manufacturers at their own testing facilities. EPA audits the data from this testing and performs its own testing on some of these vehicles to confirm the manufacturers' results.
Emission and Fuel Economy Test Data | Cars and Light Trucks | US EPA
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Old 09-22-2015, 01:51 PM   #24
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At least in the US there are a number of unrelated organizations, affiliated with universities or single purpose constituencies (e.g. clean air groups, Consumers Union), that fund or conduct their own research and scrutinize the claims of others. The auto companies (among others), around the world, are not subject to "only" gov't inspections.

I expect the same hold true for Europe.
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Old 09-22-2015, 01:55 PM   #25
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Executives never go to jail, and this thing goes a whole lot lower in the management food chain. Has to be hundreds involved.

I am sure their competitors have known about this for years, but keep their mouths shut , like the Mafia never rat's on the other guy.
And there in lies the problem. Put a few of these high fliers behind bars and maybe, just maybe the culture will change. The company paying a fine is a joke.
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Old 09-22-2015, 02:01 PM   #26
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My first position with MegaMotors in 1981 was in emissions certification and because Mega had had their hands slapped by the EPA in the recent past, we got a lecture on how we had to even avoid the appearance of doing anything underhanded. The EPA rules at the time specifically addressed defeat devices even giving examples like using a hood open sensor to change the control strategy. The cars were run with the hood open on a chassis dynamo meter during the test. In recent years, auto companies just self certify with occasional auditing by the EPA to ensure compliance.
Ford was using Rousch for emissions lab testing, and because Rousch had such a reputation for , oh, call it" creative use of the numbers " Ford got extra EPA scrutiny for quite a while .

With the clean diesel cars coming from europe, I was amazed VW was getting Nox emissions levels so low, without using the pain is the ass "Diesel exhaust fluid " additive system that some car other makers , and most large diesel trucks use.

It was too good to be true.
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Old 09-22-2015, 02:05 PM   #27
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And there in lies the problem. Put a few of these high fliers behind bars and maybe, just maybe the culture will change. The company paying a fine is a joke.
A few guys from Freddy Mac went to the slammer, pre 2008 housing meltdown. That was the last I have seen of high level folks getting time in the big house.
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Old 09-22-2015, 02:35 PM   #28
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Interesting.... has anyone found what would change in the car performance if they ran the cheat all the time. I would assume it would then be compliant at least with emissions.

I would assume that all cars these days modify settings based on conditions. Older cars did this more mechanically. But adjusting for the test does sound like a cheat. I just wonder if they ran the cheat all the time, what do they give up? mileage? performance? It would be interesting to know... and this could be a very easy fix... just software. But what was so important to use this cheat?
From a Web source:
Volkswagen hasn't explained exactly why it cheated, but outside analysts have a good guess. The NOx emission controls likely degraded the cars' performance when they were switched on — the engines ran hotter, wore out more quickly, and got poorer mileage. Some experts have suggested that the emission controls may have affected the cars' torque and acceleration, making them less fun to drive. (Indeed, some individual car owners have been known to disable their cars' emission controls to boost performance, though this is against the law.)
In the world of drivers obsessed with horsepower performance, this cheat gives VW an advantage over its competition.

By the way, most of these cars in circulation are in Europe, not the US.

See: Volkswagen's appalling clean diesel scandal, explained - Vox.
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Old 09-22-2015, 04:03 PM   #29
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A few guys from Freddy Mac went to the slammer, pre 2008 housing meltdown. That was the last I have seen of high level folks getting time in the big house.
It does happen, rarely:

Former OtisMed CEO sentenced to two years in prison for shipping device after FDA rejected it - FierceMedicalDevices

Former peanut company CEO sentenced to 28 years for salmonella outbreak | Reuters

https://www.fbi.gov/atlanta/press-re...x-ponzi-scheme

San Jose: Jerry Wang, CEO of Herguan University, sentenced to prison - San Jose Mercury News

Not big shot companies, still. In Russia you have some billionaires getting jail time too every so often and in China they get death sentences, but those are very different stories from what you meant.
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Old 09-22-2015, 04:53 PM   #30
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If you want to follow the action on the TDI Club forums, here it is:

Volkswagen's Clean Air Act violations on 2009+ TDIs trigger massive recall, stop sale - TDIClub Forums
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Old 09-22-2015, 05:09 PM   #31
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GM’s scandal has cost the company more than $2 billion, including a $900 million fine the automaker agreed to pay to the U.S. government last week as part of a criminal settlement.

Toyota paid a $1.2 billion fine last year in its own criminal settlement with U.S. prosecutors.

But Volkswagen said Tuesday that it would set aside 6.5 billion euros ($7.3 billion) to account for the costs associated with its emissions scandal, which was exposed Friday by the Environmental Protection Agency. The EPA has the authority to fine Volkswagen up to $18 billion for violating emissions standards on some 482,000 diesel cars in the U.S.

The company admitted that the deceptive software may be installed on 11 million vehicles worldwide and has apologized and ordered an external investigation. The software causes vehicles to emit harmful pollutants at rates of up to 40 times acceptable standards, except when regulators are testing the cars.
From USA Today. They noted GM and Toyota didn't set out to deceive anyone - they failed to catch mistakes and then allegedly tried to hide them. Whereas VW set out to deceive...ouch.
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Old 09-22-2015, 05:44 PM   #32
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Bummer. I am one of the affected owners. And I am piss*d. Some posters above mentioned that people in my shoes may be slow to get their vehicles "fixed." But with state inspection and periodic maintenance, there's unlikely to be an easy way to avoid the "fix."

Class actions will yield some half-as*ed settlement where I'll get some piddling compensation for the likely substantial reduced mileage I'll suffer when the "fix" occurs.

This was a crime. And every country out there that's not third world will be prosecuting and suing VW. Millions of vehicles are likely involved. Europe will be a great white shark compared to US regulators....
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Old 09-22-2015, 06:05 PM   #33
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VW's marketing has heavily targeted non-price-sensitive folks who want a fun to drive car and who want to be (or seen to be) environmentally conscious. Any de-tuning to meet the emissions requirement is going to hurt the "fun to drive" factor for these diesels, and the company's green credibility is now as thoroughly shot as possible. So years of building up a particular brand identity is on the scrap heap--that's hard to put a price on. Heads will (and should) roll, and it won't be long.

I read a story in the WSJ a few weeks ago about a government program that pays whistleblowers. Some folks get paid a lot of money, but the path is a difficult one (specialized lawyers and procedures, etc). An improved program like that would seem to be a good way to catch this sort of thing. Scores of people in VW must have known about this.
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Old 09-22-2015, 06:10 PM   #34
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I heard that fiat Chrysler may have similar issues.

Farfegnugen !!! like an investor.

Who has clean diesel ?
Who stands to benefit from this recall?

Any China impact ( being worlds largest car market) ?

I wouldn't touch VW as i don't know what i don't know as far as total liability yet.

But at some point, value will emerge

Those owning major international funds likely own a percent or two of VW as part of their ETF or MF
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Old 09-22-2015, 06:13 PM   #35
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Any China impact ( being worlds largest car market) ?
Almost zero. Diesel cars aren't popular in China at all.
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Old 09-22-2015, 06:21 PM   #36
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Why is no one blaming unachievable (at least with reasonable cost and performance) standards set by EPA and California? Why do we pay more for diesel than gasoline; the opposite of Europe? Why can we always find a good turbo diesel in Europe that gets great gas mileage while at the same time those cars aren't sold in USA?

I am not saying VW is not without the greatest blame; but the government needs to share the blame.

Marc
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Old 09-22-2015, 06:28 PM   #37
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Yes, the regulation agencies may demand impossible high standards, but if car makers are honest and say that they cannot deliver, then the populace will just have to drive smaller cars or walk. Or the car drivers can apply pressure for the government to relax the requirements.

Some car makers cheat so that they can sell while the competition cannot, and therefore gain market share. They try to use the stringent requirements to their advantage in a deceitful way. And the government and people will say that the honest car makers are "behind the curve" and do not have "advanced technology".

By the way, most of these diesel cars are sold and used in Europe, where there's a demand for high MPG due to the fuel cost as you noted. The impact in the US caused by VW is not that great.
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Old 09-22-2015, 06:33 PM   #38
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Why can we always find a good turbo diesel in Europe that gets great gas mileage while at the same time those cars aren't sold in USA?


Marc
Those cars are sold in the USA. I have one now and have had several of them in the past. They are the ones (2009 - 2015) that VW is being scrutinized about. They same cars (except for a few models) that are running around Europe and other places.

BMW, Mercedes and Audi sell diesels in the USA. VW has been selling diesels here since about 1981..or so.

Seat and Skoda are owned by VW and those cars are running the same 2.0 L diesel engine as the VW's in Europe. WV also runs a 1.6 L diesel in the Polo in other countries (and maybe a 1.4 L engine). There are other diesels in other countries....Datsun, Hyundai, Volvo, Subaru to name a few.

VW, as the current largest car manufacturer in the world, is going to be screwed over this deal.
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Old 09-22-2015, 06:44 PM   #39
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Why is no one blaming unachievable (at least with reasonable cost and performance) standards set by EPA and California? Why do we pay more for diesel than gasoline; the opposite of Europe? Why can we always find a good turbo diesel in Europe that gets great gas mileage while at the same time those cars aren't sold in USA?

I am not saying VW is not without the greatest blame; but the government needs to share the blame.

Marc


Sorry.... but the gvmt does not share the blame for outright fraud....

If a car company cannot meet the requirements, then they should get out of the market... simple...
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Old 09-22-2015, 06:54 PM   #40
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This was a crime. And every country out there that's not third world will be prosecuting and suing VW. Millions of vehicles are likely involved. Europe will be a great white shark compared to US regulators....
11 million according to VW, noted above...
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