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Old 10-05-2015, 09:49 AM   #61
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Voila, this vehemently volatile index, vivified by the VIX, is vexing even veterans.

It is truly taxing the tenacity of the trembling types.
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Old 10-05-2015, 09:59 AM   #62
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Voila, this vehemently volatile index, vivified by the VIX, is vexing even veterans.

It is truly taxing the tenacity of the trembling types.
Fear not. First class forum followers will fathom this feckless frustration with flawless fortitude
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Old 10-05-2015, 10:00 AM   #63
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Fooey...
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Old 10-05-2015, 12:42 PM   #64
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Fooey...
Though another "f" word also comes to mind...
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Old 10-05-2015, 03:25 PM   #65
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Remember that "fooey" is a 5-letter word.

Anyway, this market is schizophrenic. One can't predict whether it is coming or going. I guess I will just keep doing a bit of short-term trading on the side to pick up a few hundreds, if not thousands, here and there, while maintaining my AA of 60% stock.

I won't go "all in" until people cry that the market is a rigged game, and they swear to keep their money under the mattress from now on.
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Old 10-05-2015, 06:51 PM   #66
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No risk... no reward. Too many investors sell low and buy high.
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Old 10-05-2015, 07:23 PM   #67
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Remember that "fooey" is a 5-letter word.

Anyway, this market is schizophrenic. One can't predict whether it is coming or going. I guess I will just keep doing a bit of short-term trading on the side to pick up a few hundreds, if not thousands, here and there, while maintaining my AA of 60% stock.

I won't go "all in" until people cry that the market is a rigged game, and they swear to keep their money under the mattress from now on.
I'm not sure its ever not schizophrenic. And I've certainly never succeeded at predicting whether it's coming or going. Thus my 50/50 with a wide rebalance band that keeps me from doing a lot of wiggling and ziging and zaging that amounts to a tempest in a teapot.

It's worked for a 13 year ER so far (well not ER anymore since I turn 65 this month) and the pot is over twice what it was then (not inflation adjusted though) A world class crappola market in between notwithstanding.
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Old 10-05-2015, 11:50 PM   #68
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The market is usually just mildly neurotic. If it is constantly in a bipolar disorder and has huge swings, then some people will get used to it and learn to make good money off it. And I hope to be one of them.

Buy, sell, buy, sell. Rinse and repeat. Of course I am trading just a few percent of my portfolio for kicks, but it is fun as long as I win or at least do not lose too much.

While the S&P went up 1.83% today, in Europe several countries' indices went up 3% to 4%. What changed? Well, maybe it will be all taken out the next trading session. We'll see.
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Old 10-06-2015, 12:05 AM   #69
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No risk... no reward. Too many investors sell low and buy high.
From my point of view, not enough investors sell low and buy high.
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Old 10-06-2015, 12:08 AM   #70
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... I guess I will just keep doing a bit of short-term trading on the side to pick up a few hundreds, if not thousands, here and there, while maintaining my AA of 60% stock.
If you can pick stocks well enough to make a few thousand 'on the side' in this market, why aren't you leveraged to the max and making 10's of thousands?
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Old 10-06-2015, 12:20 AM   #71
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Because I know that I cannot be right all the time, and do not want an error to cost me too dearly.

One's bet size should correspond to the probability of winning, and since the market has roughly 50/50 chance of going up or down, one can never go all in or all out. But after a big run up, the market will have a bigger chance of going down than up, and after a big loss, a bigger chance of going up than down. So, instead of 50/50, it may be 48/52. Hence, my incremental short-term bets are placed on that small chance, on top of my long-term holdings which I do not trade.

And talking about making 10's of thousands per day, if I were more certain of how the market would move, I could make that kind of money trading a bigger percentage of my stash instead of just a couple of percent of it. I would not go on margin for more leverage. That's for fools.
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Old 10-06-2015, 09:26 AM   #72
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IBB taking a dump again. Down 3.2% right now. There should be a way to make money here if I only knew how far it will go and the direction. Is that too much to ask?
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Old 10-06-2015, 09:45 AM   #73
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I guess I will just keep doing a bit of short-term trading on the side to pick up a few hundreds, if not thousands, here and there, while maintaining my AA of 60% stock.
But if you're sure you'll make "hundreds, if not thousands", you sound pretty confident with play money... Maybe not so much though?


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And talking about making 10's of thousands per day, if I were more certain of how the market would move, I could make that kind of money trading a bigger percentage of my stash instead of just a couple of percent of it.
Well, yeah, if we were all more 'certain' of what the market will do, I think we'd all make a lot of money
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Old 10-06-2015, 12:39 PM   #74
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But if you're sure you'll make "hundreds, if not thousands", you sound pretty confident with play money... Maybe not so much though?
I did not elaborate on how much money committed, how many trades, and over how many days it took to make that few hundreds or a couple of thousands.

Writing calls or puts gets me that few hundreds or a few thousands easily as Fermion and Utrecht have been doing also. Now, it takes stocks or cash to back up these options. One commits capital in the order of 100X the amount one expects to win in a couple of weeks. This is the most conservative play.

Another way to make short-term trades is to wait for the right time to play the more volatile ETFs. One can get 10% return in a week, but the timing has to be right.

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Well, yeah, if we were all more 'certain' of what the market will do, I think we'd all make a lot of money
Of course not. Somebody has to lose.

I was replying to a poster who talked about leveraging to make 10K's on each short-term trade, and pointed out that leveraging is not necessary when one has a 7-figure portfolio. What I need is "certainty" to commit more money to these short-term trades, or to go out further on the risk/reward curve.
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Old 10-06-2015, 12:49 PM   #75
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IBB taking a dump again. Down 3.2% right now. There should be a way to make money here if I only knew how far it will go and the direction. Is that too much to ask?
And I sold calls on my 300 shares of 3X bear biotech ETF shares (BIS) too soon. Left a couple of $K's on the table. Darn!
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Old 10-06-2015, 01:20 PM   #76
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Leverage $1,000,000 with 3x ETFs with calls, what could go wrong?
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Old 10-06-2015, 01:30 PM   #77
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Are you doing that? I admire you the size of your, er...., things.

One could turn $1M into $2M or $3M. Or he can lose it all.

That's big-stake gambling, not the piddly play aiming to make a few 100's or $Ks we talk about here.
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Old 10-06-2015, 01:32 PM   #78
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No way.

Seems better than Vegas.
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Old 10-06-2015, 01:35 PM   #79
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Yes, risky as it is, it is better than Vegas in that you can admit that you are wrong, capitulate and cut your loss, instead of waiting to the end to lose it all.

In Vegas, you cannot change your mind and retract your money after putting it all on red.
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Old 10-06-2015, 04:41 PM   #80
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Yes, risky as it is, it is better than Vegas in that you can admit that you are wrong, capitulate and cut your loss, instead of waiting to the end to lose it all.

In Vegas, you cannot change your mind and retract your money after putting it all on red.

That is true. I am oddball I admit. I have my "gambling money" for Vegas and my investing money to invest. You would think someone who gambles frequently like I do could have more intestinal fortitude to buy common stocks. But I don't...Wait, I do have 500 shares in an electric utility stock...What an aggressive high roller investor I am!


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