This current market....

ownyourfuture said:
"Yes, I know the current (bear?) market has me frustrated"

**I did notice the question mark behind (bear?)**
Here's one definition of a bear market.

Although figures can vary, for many, a downturn of 20% or more in multiple broad market indexes, such as the Dow Jones industrial average and/or the Standard & Poor's 500 index over at least a two month period, is considered an entry into a bear market.

According to this definition, we aren't in a bear market, & I would tend to agree.


No disrespect, but how long have we been hearing that 'the economy is improving' ?
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Right. What I meant was that we might be entering a bear market. Hence the question mark; I wasn't clear.

I not only hear the economy is improving but I also see it in companies that are generally beating estimates and overall positive conf calls; both secular and cyclicals like your "AT&T, Colgate, Johnson & Johnson, 3-M, Emerson, Eli Lilly, Kraft Heinz,".
 
marko said:
Upfront:
Yes, I know the current (bear?) market has me frustrated
Yes, I know that the 130 year trend is a steady upward move
Yes, I know that thinking "this time is different" is suicide
Yes, I know the following is more of a cathartic rant than a question.

But. Seems that over the past year or so, there has been a real trend in the market that overlooks any good news and just focuses on anything bad.


?

Maybe I just need someone to calm me down..........
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Personally, I think that is pretty much the definition of human nature.

Someone will always find something to whine about.
Bad news will always find a willing ear.
Bad news sells.

Spend the next weekend "unplugged". get a good book, throw on your favorite tunes and adapt an "attitude of gratitude".
 
The US market made some very nice gains from 2009-2014. That's 6 up years in a row, which is pretty unusual. The last year or so has been basically flat. Personally, I expect the next few years to be flat or down, as I don't think a whole lot of stocks are overvalued, and the economy is strong enough to support significant gains from here. And the continued FED manipulation of the market is not helping. As a result, my exposure to the market is pretty low right now. Sure, it's market timing, but it is what I am comfortable with. YMMV.
 
bclover said:
Personally, I think that is pretty much the definition of human nature.

Someone will always find something to whine about.
Bad news will always find a willing ear.
Bad news sells.

Spend the next weekend "unplugged". get a good book, throw on your favorite tunes and adapt an "attitude of gratitude".
Click to expand...

That's true, but it seems that the market had always been able to see through the noise. Now it seems that it's distracted by the noise.

(But I did turn off the TV this morning and listened to some music!)
 
RAE said:
The US market made some very nice gains from 2009-2014. That's 6 up years in a row, which is pretty unusual. The last year or so has been basically flat. Personally, I expect the next few years to be flat or down, as I don't think a whole lot of stocks are overvalued, and the economy is strong enough to support significant gains from here. And the continued FED manipulation of the market is not helping. As a result, my exposure to the market is pretty low right now. Sure, it's market timing, but it is what I am comfortable with. YMMV.
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I think the stock market is overvalued, atleast on a historical level. It is not wildly overvalued but it is overvalued. It has come down a little. I expect next year to be flat or down so that the PE ratios can start to be in line with the earnings. Right now it is a little out of whack. I still buy every opportunity I get as long term I like stocks. I think the PE ratios of the SP500 is 19.5 right now. To get to 15 or 16 PE ,earnings are going to have to pick up or we are going to experience a bigger downturn.
 
I should have warned you all of this downturn. I knew that it was coming. You see, I just ERd August 1st. I wouldn't stand behind me at the checkout counter at the supermarket either.


I also subscribe the "Ostrich" theory of portfolio monitoring. I look at it when its going up, and ignore it on the way down. Needless to say, I haven't looked at it in a while.
 
Yes, when we ER'd in April, my wife's 401K was around $635,000, now it is $590,000. 100% Vanguard index funds, and not even anything outrageous like international or energy.

A year's worth of living expenses vanish in just one account. A little scary, but man cannot live on bonds alone (especially sub 2% bonds).
 
Islandtraveler said:
I should have warned you all of this downturn. I knew that it was coming. You see, I just ERd August 1st. I wouldn't stand behind me at the checkout counter at the supermarket either.


I also subscribe the "Ostrich" theory of portfolio monitoring. I look at it when its going up, and ignore it on the way down. Needless to say, I haven't looked at it in a while.
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Me too!


Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum
 
If this keeps up I'm moving 10% into stocks end of year.

Finally a chance to move a bit closer to target allocation!
 
I will check the Shiller PE10 tomorrow after today's fall. I expect it will still be higher than "normal"; maybe I should say higher than "mean".
 
"Cheap" can always get cheaper ... I wouldn't jump back in just yet....


Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum
 
This is really starting to hurt a bit.


It's funny. When market is hitting all time highs there are worries about retiring thinking it will go down once you pull the plug and your sequence of returns risk is high. But when the market is correcting there are worries about retiring cause your portfolio is actually getting pounded. It's not theoretical. It's occurring.


Either way too much worry. This retiring thing is not for the timid. It aint easy.


Muir
 
I am kind of glad we have not sold our (paid for) home yet. If I had had that money a few weeks ago, I would already be losing it in the market.

Maybe by the time we sell, I can buy SPY for $150.
 
Fermion said:
I am kind of glad we have not sold our (paid for) home yet. If I had had that money a few weeks ago, I would already be losing it in the market.

Maybe by the time we sell, I can buy SPY for $150.
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I'm scheduled to DCA part of the money from selling my house last month, on Wednesday. Hmm! Looks pretty good to me. :D But then again, with my luck the market will bounce back with a vengeance by then. :ermm:

Either way, that's the plan.
 
It's funny, I see all the posts about the market ignoring good news and only reacting to the bad. But for the past 3 years or so all I could see was the market going up on bad news, no news, and good news. But it really would jump up on bad news. I don't think there's really any correlation between the news and the market's direction. It's always made me laugh to listen to the heads "explaining" why the market did whatever it did that day. No matter what it did, they always "know" the reason. I'm not sure why they aren't all rich and retired.
 
I just started some tax loss harvesting today. Almost anything with oil or emerging markets looks like a good candidate.
 
harley said:
It's always made me laugh to listen to the heads "explaining" why the market did whatever it did that day.
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An "financial" newspaper out here hit new lows last week: first they were claiming that the market would fall once the Fed raises interest rates. Then, when the Fed didn't raise rates the markets fell anyway.

Now they are claiming the markets are falling because the Fed didn''t raise interest rates :confused: (supposedly it indicates a weak economy etc ..)
 
Even after yesterday's decline

Shiller PE10 at 23.89
Mean 16.63
Median 16.01

S&P500 PE 18.96
Mean 15.55
Median 14.60

A simple calculation (18.96-15.55)/15.55*100 = 21.92% over-valued


But it's still painful to watch money evaporate, so a good thing to do is to look away till Jan 1 or whenever it is time to re-balance.
 
PE10 won't move much in a day, since it is a 10 year average.
 
DEC-1982 said:
But it's still painful to watch money evaporate, so a good thing to do is to look away till Jan 1 or whenever it is time to re-balance.
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Good thing quarterly dividends come in tomorrow night. Some salvation there. (but not much) The "income property" (equities) value has dropped but at least the rent keeps coming in!
 
By design, we've got several years worth of funds earmarked for withdrawals in cash or guaranteed (low yield) funds. Up until recently I was not sure if that was smart or not... now 1.75% return on the guaranteed funds looks pretty fabulous. Still wonder what the current thrashing of equities means for us down the road. Probably could re-think taking SS at FRA and push out needing to sell any stocks for quite a few years, but you know what? I'm starting to think this time actually might just be "different", as in recovery might be painfully slow. But I guess first things first, we have yet to find solid enough footing to have any confidence of knowing where the bottom is.
 
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