ownyourfuture
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
- Joined
- Jun 18, 2013
- Messages
- 1,561
Disclosure: I retired from this company.
My reasoning for considering adding shares. The only significant news for the company in 2018, was the acquisition of Signode Industrial Group, which was completed on April 3, 2018.
Q-1 earnings were released after the market close on April 18th. Q-2 & full year 2018 guidance was $1.55 to $1.65 & $5.35 to $5.55
Shares closed at $52 & change that day. In after-hours trading, the shares were up approximately $7.00 to around $59.00 on heavy volume. Since I hold shares in both my ESPP, & a taxable account @ Fidelity, I was very pleased. But lo & behold, the following day, I saw the shares were actually trading down slightly vs the previous days close ?
I read the earnings report again, & listened to the entire conference call. Couldn't find any reason why AH trading was so wildly optimistic, yet down the following day ?
A couple days later, I found what I believe to be the reason. The new tariffs had caused the price of aluminum to spike. Considering the fact that at any given time, the plant I retired from has approximately 35 aluminum coils weighing between 18 & 21,000 lbs, each, I realized this could put extreme pressure on earnings, & was actually surprised the shares weren’t down more. The stock gradually drifted down & settled in the $44.00 range.
Which leads us to today. Q-2 earnings were released after yesterdays close.
Revenue of $3.05 billion vs forecasts of $2.97 billion
$1.55 per share vs guidance of $1.55 to $1.65
Full-year earnings guidance in the range of $5.15 to $5.30
Merrill Lynch & Bank Of America downgraded from buy to neutral today.
Summary: Q-2 revenue slightly above expectations, earnings at the lower end of guidance, & full year guidance lowered by .25
Not good news, but not horrific either, considering the tariff news.
If they were to achieve the low end of full-year guidance, & earn $5.15 per share, the P/E ratio would be around 8
Thoughts ?
My reasoning for considering adding shares. The only significant news for the company in 2018, was the acquisition of Signode Industrial Group, which was completed on April 3, 2018.
Q-1 earnings were released after the market close on April 18th. Q-2 & full year 2018 guidance was $1.55 to $1.65 & $5.35 to $5.55
Shares closed at $52 & change that day. In after-hours trading, the shares were up approximately $7.00 to around $59.00 on heavy volume. Since I hold shares in both my ESPP, & a taxable account @ Fidelity, I was very pleased. But lo & behold, the following day, I saw the shares were actually trading down slightly vs the previous days close ?
I read the earnings report again, & listened to the entire conference call. Couldn't find any reason why AH trading was so wildly optimistic, yet down the following day ?
A couple days later, I found what I believe to be the reason. The new tariffs had caused the price of aluminum to spike. Considering the fact that at any given time, the plant I retired from has approximately 35 aluminum coils weighing between 18 & 21,000 lbs, each, I realized this could put extreme pressure on earnings, & was actually surprised the shares weren’t down more. The stock gradually drifted down & settled in the $44.00 range.
Which leads us to today. Q-2 earnings were released after yesterdays close.
Revenue of $3.05 billion vs forecasts of $2.97 billion
$1.55 per share vs guidance of $1.55 to $1.65
Full-year earnings guidance in the range of $5.15 to $5.30
Merrill Lynch & Bank Of America downgraded from buy to neutral today.
Summary: Q-2 revenue slightly above expectations, earnings at the lower end of guidance, & full year guidance lowered by .25
Not good news, but not horrific either, considering the tariff news.
If they were to achieve the low end of full-year guidance, & earn $5.15 per share, the P/E ratio would be around 8
Thoughts ?
