Thoughts on TESLA

[Popeye]

As this rapid ramp up of EV cars occurs, what is the plan for them to start paying a fair share of road construction and maintenance costs? If we really are at the tipping point, then the free ride needs to end. Is it going to end up as a per mile charge? In addition to the OTA updates, Tesla could extract and report your miles driven to the state and you could pay your fees monthly via CC automatically. Just like with EZ-Pass!

 

[aja8888]

Would oneill225 kindly tell us what he is currently driving?

Here's something to ponder about the simple task of just making 200,000,000 cars go away:

VW is in the process of buying back 500,000 diesels. I sold mine back last year. It has taken VW, their dealers, and their contractors 2.5 years to round up all those cars and find places here to keep them in storage for eventual disposition. Who and how will 200,000,000 cars be rounded up, sold, scrapped, parked in a field, etc, etc in a reasonable period of time? And a good number of these cars will have loans, be leases, fleet cars, etc, etc with contracts of use. Rounding up MILLIONS of vehicles and ripping them out of people's hands is not as simple as herding cats!

 

[Texas Proud]

Here is another opinion:

(Probably behind a pay wall)

https://www.wsj.com/articles/think-...great-now-just-wait-11545838139?mod=read_more

“So I’m waiting. Waiting to choose one of the scores of electric vehicle models that I know are coming down the pipeline in the next 18 to 36 months—the exact timing of my purchase depends on whether it’s possible to paint the whole van with rattle-cans. In any event, I’m waiting, because internal-combustion (IC) just doesn’t work for me anymore. In the car market I am a human headwind.”

“During the reasonable service life of any vehicle I buy today, I expect the demand for IC-powered vehicles will drop to practically zero, equivalent to the current market penetration of flip phones. No one will want them and there will be nowhere to get them fixed; by that time widespread fleet electrification will have cratered traditional dealerships that depend on service dollars to survive.”

There is a problem with that analogy.... people do not keep phones for 10 to 20 years... cars... yea...


I have not seen anybody on the side that says gas stations will be gone in 5 to 10 years refuting the graphs I found... and this is from experts on the matter, not SOTI....

 

[eroscott]

It's currently a good experience if you have a garage with a charger installed - basically we'll off suburban drivers. Just plug in every time you pull in and unplug as you leave. This works fine for use around town.

Chargers being installed are not necessary 2 of the 3 cars in our garage charge on 120v regular receptacles (albeit 2 circuits but simple/cheap). The 3rd one, our Tesla, charges on a "RV Plug" tho.

ICE cars in the USA are going to be around for a few decades ... it will change much quicker in Europe and other countries. Price of fuel, maintenance, and various businesses and gov getting involved in the charging infrastructure (highways, houses, common areas, etc).

Europe is so far ahead of the USA Tesla had to move to using the CCS 2 charging plugs per my previous post. https://insideevs.com/tesla-ccs-combo-europe-in-depth-video/

 

[Ready]

Think about how much smartphone technology has changed in the last ten years. Prior to 2007 there was no IPhone or Android phone, and no Apple Watch. If I wrote a post prior to 2007 describing all of the things we would be doing with phones and watches in ten years it would have sounded like something from the Jetsons.

I see no reason why EV technology couldn’t advance just as quickly over the next decade.

 

[eroscott]

Think about how much smartphone technology has changed in the last ten years. Prior to 2007 there was no IPhone or Android phone, and no Apple Watch. If I wrote a post prior to 2007 describing all of the things we would be doing with phones and watches in ten years it would have sounded like something from the Jetsons.

I see no reason why EV technology couldn’t advance just as quickly over the next decade.

While all that is true ... as was mentioned people tend to keep cars for many many more years than they keep phones and they have that very different expectation.

Phones and cars cost more than an order of magnitude to buy, maintain, replace.

As well car companies are required to keeps the parts available for 10 years. ala Chevrolet Volt ending 4/1/2019.

 

[jimbee]

As well car companies are required to keeps the parts available for 10 years.

Do you have a citation for this? I've heard stories, but never found a federal requirement. My google skills may be too weak.

 

[eroscott]

Do you have a citation for this? I've heard stories, but never found a federal requirement. My google skills may be too weak.

The last place I recall this being discussed was the Chevrolet Volt forum as they are going to stop making that car March 31, 2019. The powertrain and specifically the battery have a 10 year / 150K mile warranty in CA and perhaps other states (8 years in most).

Here is one site that indicates that the "10 yr" thing may not be true but goes to the normal car warranty (10yr Volt ref above) but I will look some more:
https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/...der-us-federal-law-to-provide-parts-for-a-set

EV parts (batteries) vs emissions parts vs regular parts (blinkers, etc) may vary it seems.

 

[eroscott]

a) Tesla to start testing new Autopilot Hardware 3 [HW3] in employee vehicles
- Dec. 27th 2018 6:06 pm ET
https://electrek.co/2018/12/27/tesla-autopilot-hardware-3-employee-vehicles/

I have HW2 in my Model X but purchased FSD (Full Self Driving) when I bought the car 1 year/20K miles ago (used service with 4K miles on it from the service center). I was told that any new hardware required will be upgraded free of charge.

Musk also reiterated that anyone, employees or customers, who ordered the Full Self-Driving Capability package will receive a free upgrade to the new Hardware 3 computer.

Earlier this year, Musk said that Tesla aims to release the new hardware during the first half of 2019.

Tesla is expected to still release improved Autopilot features through software updates and owners with the new hardware can expect more advanced autonomous features, which Musk thinks will lead to full autonomy by the end of 2019.

b) Twitter: The Detroit News --- @HenryEPayne tested more than 60 vehicles for us this year. Here's what he loved the most: [article below]

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/o...8/12/26/detroit-news-vehicle-year/2379185002/
Payne: A Tesla is Detroit News Vehicle of the Year
Henry Payne, The Detroit News Published 11:01 p.m. ET Dec. 26, 2018 | Updated 11:31 a.m. ET Dec. 27, 2018

NOTE: You can not purchase a Tesla in MI -- buy out of state and register it in MI. Same this in KY when my son purchased his Tesla Model 3.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

EVs are still expensive. Until the price comes down, an ICE car is the best means for transportation, unless you care about 0-to-60 acceleration. When EVs are cheap and easy to charge, people will buy them.

If I buy a new ICE car now and keep it at least 10-15 years like I usually do, I am confident that there will still be gasoline available when I sell it. In fact, whoever buys it from me will be able to get gas to drive the car to the ground.

PS. I helped my mom buy a car to replace her Accord. We settled on a Toyota Yaris sold by Hertz. It was 2018 model, had 11K miles on the odometer, and looked like new. Price was $14K out the door. I thought that was hard to beat.

PPS. My mother has money, and would not mind paying $60K for a Tesla Model 3 if it were a truly autonomous car. But such a car is not currently available at any price. Of course, the SDC technology is agnostic between ICE and EV cars.

Would you call a 26K (after credits) Hyundai Kona expensive? Range 258 miles

Volkswagen will have many models in the next 2 years, even cheaper.

 

[NW-Bound]

Chargers being installed are not necessary 2 of the 3 cars in our garage charge on 120v regular receptacles (albeit 2 circuits but simple/cheap). The 3rd one, our Tesla, charges on a "RV Plug" tho...

Each hour of plugging into a 120V 15-amp outlet only gets you a few miles. It's OK for a 2nd car or if you are retired, but for a worker who commutes he cannot charge enough overnight to drive the next day to work.

ICE cars in the USA are going to be around for a few decades ... it will change much quicker in Europe and other countries. Price of fuel, maintenance, and various businesses and gov getting involved in the charging infrastructure (highways, houses, common areas, etc).

Europe is so far ahead of the USA Tesla had to move to using the CCS 2 charging plugs per my previous post. https://insideevs.com/tesla-ccs-combo-europe-in-depth-video/

I am sure Europeans want to be off petroleum as they have to import it. But I wonder how they are going to execute this.

In my 6000-mile 6-week trip through western Europe last year, I stayed mostly in Airbnb's in rural areas. Parking spaces were sparse even in small villages and towns in France, Italy, Belgium. Only one home in the suburb of Koln (Cologne) had a driveway, but I had to park on the street because the owner of the duplex kept his car there.

Europeans are not electricity hogs like Americans. They do not even have air conditioning, and do not use cloth dryers. How are their grids going to support all the charging cars?

Even here in the US, converting all cars to EVs will probably double our electricity usage. One does not double the amount of generating plants, transmission lines, power stations, distribution networks overnight.

As mentioned in another thread on Renewable Energy, despite all the hype, 37% of Germany's electricity comes from burning lignite, a dirty and polluting brown coal far worse than the US black coal. Will they burn even more of it to generate electricity for cars? Why do they have to burn lignite dug up from an open mine of 33 sq.mi., which they are expanding by relocating entire villages? Because there are days when the sun does not shine and the wind does not blow.

 

[NW-Bound]

Would you call a 26K (after credits) Hyundai Kona expensive? Range 258 miles

Volkswagen will have many models in the next 2 years, even cheaper.

I do not call it expensive. Many will, when they consider that an ICE car costing a lot less will do the job for them, and is more convenient to use.

PS. A Web page I looked up said that "when the Kona Electric goes on sale in early 2019, it will start at $37,495 before the $7500 federal tax credit". That's 2x the cost of an inexpensive ICE car that many people drive.

 

[Breedlove]

And remember a 37,495 Kona will end up less then that because at least here in Houston Hyundai and Kia dealers discount quite a bit.. That 100,000 mile warranty Hyundai is golden plus they warrant lifetime batteries.

 

[mpeirce]

I see no reason why EV technology couldn’t advance just as quickly over the next decade.

The idea that you'll see the same geometric gains you see in chip technology in other technology is flawed. "Moore's law" does not apply.

Car technology is very different from silicon chip technology. The steadily shrinking die size and the resulting geometric growth in circuitry on a chip simply isn't going to apply to things like electric motors and batteries (or solar panels for that matter). It's a very different type of physics involved.

Of course EV's use computer technology for control and such, but so do internal combustion vehicles as well. Both benefit from better controls. So that's nice. But not the same thing as Moore's law applying to cars.

 

[JoeWras]

The idea that you'll see the same geometric gains you see in chip technology in other technology is flawed. "Moore's law" does not apply.

Car technology is very different from silicon chip technology. The steadily shrinking die size and the resulting geometric growth in circuitry on a chip simply isn't going to apply to things like electric motors and batteries (or solar panels for that matter). It's a very different type of physics involved.

Of course EV's use computer technology for control and such, but so do internal combustion vehicles as well. Both benefit from better controls. So that's nice. But not the same thing as Moore's law applying to cars.

+1

Cars are much more complex. Even today's ICE cars have multiple equivalents of smart phones in them. Then there is all the mechanical and comfort items.

They can also kill people, which leads to regulation and further testing.

This doesn't mean that EV takeover or SDC won't happen. It is just that the timeframes have to be realistic.

 

[Ready]

The idea that you'll see the same geometric gains you see in chip technology in other technology is flawed. "Moore's law" does not apply.

Car technology is very different from silicon chip technology. The steadily shrinking die size and the resulting geometric growth in circuitry on a chip simply isn't going to apply to things like electric motors and batteries (or solar panels for that matter). It's a very different type of physics involved.

Of course EV's use computer technology for control and such, but so do internal combustion vehicles as well. Both benefit from better controls. So that's nice. But not the same thing as Moore's law applying to cars.

Understood, but for EV’s to advance we don’t need improvements to motors or mechanical parts. We need improvements to the chip technology and neural networks that allow for fully autonomous driving and enhanced safety features. I suppose these features could be incorporated into ICE vehicles as well, but the industry is pushing hard to incorporate these technologies into new EV vehicles.

 

[JoeWras]

Understood, but for EV’s to advance we don’t need improvements to motors or mechanical parts. We need improvements to the chip technology and neural networks that allow for fully autonomous driving and enhanced safety features. I suppose these features could be incorporated into ICE vehicles as well, but the industry is pushing hard to incorporate these technologies into new EV vehicles.

But we also need improvement to charging times, and charging infrastructure.

 

[Texas Proud]

Would you call a 26K (after credits) Hyundai Kona expensive? Range 258 miles

Volkswagen will have many models in the next 2 years, even cheaper.

Where did you get $26K? The article I read says it is higher....

When the Kona Electric goes on sale in early 2019, it will start at $37,495 before the $7500 federal tax credit.
​

Still, $30K is more reasonable... but a nice Kona with ICE is $23K list... A quick calc says you need to drive 125K miles or so to break even (could be really flawed calc as I used MPGe and gas prices for comparison)...





I want something a bit bigger than a Kona though... right now we have a Hyundai Genesis and Honda Pilot... once you get vehicles in those sizes that compete in price I will be looking at getting one.... but, the Pilot will need to be able to tow a boat... and have chargers in the middle of nowhere so I can go to my favorite lake... at least I could possibly replace my car...

 

[ERD50]

Understood, but for EV’s to advance we don’t need improvements to motors or mechanical parts. We need improvements to the chip technology and neural networks that allow for fully autonomous driving and enhanced safety features. I suppose these features could be incorporated into ICE vehicles as well, but the industry is pushing hard to incorporate these technologies into new EV vehicles.

This makes no sense. You are conflating autonomous and EV. An EV doesn't need to be autonomous. An ICE can be autonomous. In fact, I've seen several reviews claiming the Cadillac Super Cruise system is better than Tesla's system. An EV should be able to compete with ICE with equivalent driving capability.

As others have said, Moore's law does not apply to things like batteries, motors, and infrastructure.

This is the problem with so many EV and clean energy fans. They don't understand the limits and possibilities of the technology, but they make these unfounded claims and I think they believe them. And then get all emotional about it and claim that those in the know are being negative, when we are just being realistic. And then encourage their politicians to support 'dreams' rather than facts.

Regardless, none of that autonomous stuff affects the issues some have with EVs, range and charger availability for those with street parking. And no, it isn't an 'easy upgrade' as oneill225 claims. Infrastructure takes a lot of effort.

Speaking of facts, did either you or clifp ever come up with the maintenance costs for a Tesla, versus my real world costs for a standard ICE 2011 Honda CR-V? You claimed this was a big advantage of the EV - I suspect it is the opposite, or at least neutral due to a variety of reasons.

-ERD50

 

[oneill225]

As this rapid ramp up of EV cars occurs, what is the plan for them to start paying a fair share of road construction and maintenance costs? If we really are at the tipping point, then the free ride needs to end. Is it going to end up as a per mile charge? In addition to the OTA updates, Tesla could extract and report your miles driven to the state and you could pay your fees monthly via CC automatically. Just like with EZ-Pass!

The taxes are coming, but how to do it is still a question. I can tell you that WA State is testing a tax per miles driven. I think the easiest method will be based on some flat rate when cars are registered. In the short term, EVs will continue to enjoy a tax break over ICE.

 

[oneill225]

Would oneill225 kindly tell us what he is currently driving?
Here's something to ponder about the simple task of just making 200,000,000 cars go away:
VW is in the process of buying back 500,000 diesels. I sold mine back last year. It has taken VW, their dealers, and their contractors 2.5 years to round up all those cars and find places here to keep them in storage for eventual disposition. Who and how will 200,000,000 cars be rounded up, sold, scrapped, parked in a field, etc, etc in a reasonable period of time? And a good number of these cars will have loans, be leases, fleet cars, etc, etc with contracts of use. Rounding up MILLIONS of vehicles and ripping them out of people's hands is not as simple as herding cats!

I drive a 2010 Volvo XC60. Based on past history, I seem to replace my vehicles about every 10 years. My next car will be full electric.

Not sure why you think the government will be "ripping" ICE from the citizenry. The transition will continue to be voluntary and in compliance with the US Constitution.

 

[oneill225]

There is a problem with that analogy.... people do not keep phones for 10 to 20 years... cars... yea...
I have not seen anybody on the side that says gas stations will be gone in 5 to 10 years refuting the graphs I found... and this is from experts on the matter, not SOTI....

The gas station prediction is from me and it is not that they will disappear in 5-10 years, only that they will be on a steady decline due to the lack of demand. The 5-10 year prediction is also from me and it reflects the time estimate when the EV market will surpass the ICE market.

I hope there is no argument about the reduced demand for gasoline resulting in fewer gas stations, refineries, and associated distribution networks. This is an obvious outcome as electric vehicles continue to replace ICE vehicles over the coming years.

 

[eroscott]

The taxes are coming, but how to do it is still a question. I can tell you that WA State is testing a tax per miles driven. I think the easiest method will be based on some flat rate when cars are registered. In the short term, EVs will continue to enjoy a tax break over ICE.

A suburban (safer) and yaris (death trap) do not collect the same fuel taxes by far so that method of taxing is still crazy. Plus each state puts that fuel money in different coffers and spends it in many ways.

Many states collect extra annual fees. Some states have gone overboard and collect way more than the average Joe/Jane would spend on fuel tax.

Mileage makes about the best sense but heavier vehicles do have more of a toll on the roads. Ways to collect that mileage may be the challenge.

 

[oneill225]

The idea that you'll see the same geometric gains you see in chip technology in other technology is flawed. "Moore's law" does not apply.
Car technology is very different from silicon chip technology. The steadily shrinking die size and the resulting geometric growth in circuitry on a chip simply isn't going to apply to things like electric motors and batteries (or solar panels for that matter). It's a very different type of physics involved.
Of course EV's use computer technology for control and such, but so do internal combustion vehicles as well. Both benefit from better controls. So that's nice. But not the same thing as Moore's law applying to cars.

We are not talking about "car" tech, we are talking about "battery" and "software" tech. New battery R&D is exploding right now.

 

[oneill225]

It's really hard to take you seriously oneill225. It seems to me you are either trolling us, or you are such a fan that you are blind to reality, and/or you are really bad at numbers.
OK, I will call your bluff. Instead of you just spouting predictions, and telling us we are lacking vision - you put together a scenario where your 'dream' can come true. Using real facts and figures.

I don't troll, ERD. I know that you are fixated on numbers (which is important), but you struggle with big picture trends. One example is ignoring the faster than expected adoption of EVs over the last few years. Keep in mind that the Tesla Model 3 has only been in production a little over a year. Something tells me that, back in 2015, you would not have been close to predicting over 150,000 sold and 4000+ per week coming off of the line as 2019 approaches. Sometimes the numbers don't tell the whole story.

[/QUOTE]You can research your own numbers, but I'm finding that there are about:
280 million registered vehicles on the road today in the US.
12-15 million vehicles reach the end of their use each year in the United States
So we could assume that the number of vehicles stays about the same, with scrapped cars being replaced one for one. What it would take in EV sales each year to reach the point where it will be hard to find a gas station (let alone "not exist") in 5, 10, or even 15 years?[/QUOTE]

I did not say gas stations will be non-existent, but a smart number cruncher like you should be able to recognize a demand issue as EVs replace gas driven vehicles over the coming years. Not complicated or requiring statistical proof.

[/QUOTE]There are often multiple gas stations on a corner, and on the next corner a mile away. We could easily have 1/10th the number of gas stations, and they still would still be easy to find. On google maps, there are 16 gas stations within a few miles of my home, and even more if I include ones along the roads I travel between fill-ups, so 1/10th is a low bar for 'hard to find'. But OK, let's set 90% EV on the road as the target. Just do the math, we can ignore that some subset of drivers will probably hang onto gas vehicles longer.[/QUOTE]

Agreed. As I stated earlier, there will be classic cars out there that will need gas to operate and there will be those who hold onto their gas cars until they have no choice. As the number of gas stations start to shrink, due to a lack of demand, keeping a gas driven vehicle will be less and less convenient. You will most certainly not have a gas station on every corner like you see today.