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Trap Door opened today!
Old 05-29-2019, 11:01 AM   #1
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Trap Door opened today!

Last week I said this:

"There will be one more push to 2860 area (S&P), then we retest the Dec lows, and then rally back to new highs at about 4,000 before this Bull market is finally over in about 3 years!"

Well the S&P only rallied to 2940, with the trap door (2770) now open, I expect the market to trade down to the 2200 area again. See you all their!
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Old 05-29-2019, 01:45 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NYEXPAT View Post
Last week I said this:

"There will be one more push to 2860 area (S&P), then we retest the Dec lows, and then rally back to new highs at about 4,000 before this Bull market is finally over in about 3 years!"

Well the S&P only rallied to 2940, with the trap door (2770) now open, I expect the market to trade down to the 2200 area again. See you all their!
I am just going to push all the buttons and hope the elevator door opens on the right floor! The latest tariff news is scariest yet IMHO. Rare earth tariff's will hurt. Hopefully we don't end up climbing out the trap.
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Old 05-29-2019, 01:51 PM   #3
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Pushing elevator buttons will not help if the cable already breaks, as the OP said.
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Old 05-29-2019, 02:19 PM   #4
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I am just going to push all the buttons and hope the elevator door opens on the right floor! The latest tariff news is scariest yet IMHO. Rare earth tariff's will hurt. Hopefully we don't end up climbing out the trap.
Does not matter what the Chinese/North Koreans/Fed/Potus/My Grandmother do/say/threaten, It is only "market sentiment" that matters. The "higher probability" of this move lower has been baked into the cake for months.
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Old 05-29-2019, 02:29 PM   #5
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Does not matter what the Chinese/North Koreans/Fed/Potus/My Grandmother do/say/threaten, It is only "market sentiment" that matters. This move lower has been baked into the cake for months.
Add 'analyst' to the list

Heard one say that there is an 85% chance of the markets moving up after a 3 month decline...based on some historical analysis somewhere. Which means there is a 15% chance it won't...if you listen to analysts
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Old 05-29-2019, 08:39 PM   #6
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I do not believe the market will be "allowed" to go down...until 2020 elections are over.
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Old 05-29-2019, 09:02 PM   #7
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I do not believe the market will be "allowed" to go down...until 2020 elections are over.
I believe your opinion is shared by many!
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Old 05-29-2019, 10:56 PM   #8
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I sold 3 PUTs yesterday. Are these good strikes and expiry? I am mostly in cash and these puts are cash secured. So I am wondering, if I should sell more PUTs or wait for more fall, to earn more premium?Screenshot_2019-05-29-23-12-40-165_atws.app.jpg
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Old 05-30-2019, 06:21 AM   #9
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I do not believe the market will be "allowed" to go down...until 2020 elections are over.
I actually think the opposite - there's going to be a lot of pressure on this market by those who can do so (the "real" money) to create fear, negate what to now has generally been a perception of a very strong economy (good for the current administration) and to ultimately try to effect change in leadership.

Guess we shall see..but I do think the next 12+ months are going to be a lot more volatile and potentially include some big drops once again (to try to cause a stampede to the exits which once it starts would easily be self-sustaining) than the last 5..in fact, I think it's already started with the fear-mongering about the inverted yield curve, bond market direction, etc. Plus, they're building on the "sell in May and go away" mantra that even your local shoe shine boy knows nowadays. It's almost obvious and I expect it will only get worse the closer we get to election season..
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Old 05-30-2019, 07:14 AM   #10
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Ha.

Iím going to lunch today with friends!
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Old 05-30-2019, 07:20 AM   #11
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I guess we will see in the next few months if the OP is right or not. I do think there is more downside than up for the summer and with the TW heating up.
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Old 05-30-2019, 07:59 AM   #12
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Well the S&P only rallied to 2940,
2940? Last week?

-ERD50
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Old 05-30-2019, 08:18 AM   #13
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2940? Last week?

-ERD50
Good catch! MY BAD, it should have read 2840!
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Old 05-30-2019, 08:38 AM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NYEXPAT View Post
Last week I said this:

"There will be one more push to 2860 area (S&P), then we retest the Dec lows, and then rally back to new highs at about 4,000 before this Bull market is finally over in about 3 years!"

Well the S&P only rallied to 2940, with the trap door (2770) now open, I expect the market to trade down to the 2200 area again. See you all their!
I am curious just how seriously you bet your portfolio on this view? What percentage do you put at risk on short term calls? If I recall correctly, you have a method that looks at some combo of moving averages.

BTW, my model which is most sensitive to yield curve inversion shows we are getting closer to a sell situation but not there yet.
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Old 05-30-2019, 11:55 AM   #15
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I am curious just how seriously you bet your portfolio on this view? What percentage do you put at risk on short term calls? If I recall correctly, you have a method that looks at some combo of moving averages.

BTW, my model which is most sensitive to yield curve inversion shows we are getting closer to a sell situation but not there yet.
I am currently net 30% short on this view. I would like to be shorter but I do not use margin. I am strictly a technical trader. I use various trading models and my current model does not use MA although I am aware of the 200 day MA right below us, as well as the H&S top pattern we broke through yesterday. To be more specific I believe we are in the third wave of a corrective "C" wave. The A wave off the top we reached last year.
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Old 05-30-2019, 10:44 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NYEXPAT View Post
Last week I said this:

"There will be one more push to 2860 area (S&P), then we retest the Dec lows, and then rally back to new highs at about 4,000 before this Bull market is finally over in about 3 years!"

Well the S&P only rallied to 2940, with the trap door (2770) now open, I expect the market to trade down to the 2200 area again. See you all their!
are you going to short sell the market then ?
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Old 05-31-2019, 05:25 AM   #17
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Another round of Tariffs for Mexico .. Dow down 270 points today. I guess more Trade Wars coming
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Old 05-31-2019, 08:56 AM   #18
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I think this long term chart on Deutsche Bank indicates a clear buy point on the stock and shows how technical analysis can be so valuable
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Old 05-31-2019, 09:11 AM   #19
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Wow, interesting chart on Deutsche Bank share price!

I do not follow any bank stock, but a fundamental analysis of this bank vs. another that does well like, say, Toronto-Dominion (TD), would be interesting to this ignoramus.

Sorry for the topic drift.
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Old 05-31-2019, 10:01 AM   #20
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I think this long term chart on Deutsche Bank indicates a clear buy point on the stock and shows how technical analysis can be so valuable
You need to go back further in time. The signal to go short was on 8/18/2008 at about $98.00 after dropping down from the high of $162. Shorts would have covered years ago (2009) at $25.00. In the past 10 years, there has never been a "buy" signal, only several more opportunities to short!

So, when in your opinion, would "fundamental analysis" have led you to short the stock or buy a put?
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