What about Apple now?

[Fedup]

I rather generate 7% consistently. I'm my own hedge fund manager.

 

[kcowan]

Oh well, less risk, less reward. Still, the annualized gain on the put works out to around 30%/yr, so I should be grateful and not too greedy.

You should be grateful because you got lucky. Never be too proud to accept the benefits of luck! And congratulations. Skill, risk and luck often combine to produce above average returns.

 

[Totoro]

But Apple isn't reliant on a single product or even a single segment like Nokia. They have iPhone, iPad leading two sectors of the same ilk, Macs sell well, and they have services lines up now as well. They have also successfully created households run on Apple products (ask me how I know) and are leveraging that advantage to get into home controls ala Nest.

The chances they're driven out like Nokia are slim, but they could certainly lose market share in phones or pads.

Two things here: 1) Nokia was never single segment. They sold telco equipment and services to carriers for example, and even home devices. throughout the years they've gone as wide as DSL modems, digital and analog set-top boxes, PC equipment and cards, and even televisions. 2) IPhone sales are 65% of their revenue. Depending on who you ask it's more than 65% of their profit too.

The chances that Nokia would be driven out were slim too. No telling how slim they are for Apple.

 

[NW-Bound]

You should be grateful because you got lucky. Never be too proud to accept the benefits of luck! And congratulations. Skill, risk and luck often combine to produce above average returns.

I mainly try to control my greed. And fear when the market turns. The market god hates braggadocio.

Anyway, these bets that I make using the cash I hold give me some returns that may beat CDs over the short periods I commit the money. However, they entail some risks, and I am not able to find "deals" like this all the time. It takes a bit of work too, and is never risk-free.

 

[petershk]

Two things here: 1) Nokia was never single segment. They sold telco equipment and services to carriers for example, and even home devices. throughout the years they've gone as wide as DSL modems, digital and analog set-top boxes, PC equipment and cards, and even televisions. 2) IPhone sales are 65% of their revenue. Depending on who you ask it's more than 65% of their profit too.

The chances that Nokia would be driven out were slim too. No telling how slim they are for Apple.

That's the problem with disruption... easy to see in hindsight... hard to predict in advance, even taking into account it's hard to predict.

Often it's the things we think couldn't possibly be disrupted that are the most painful.

Personally I loosely apply the close my eyes and imagine 20 years test.

Will I have an iPhone? No idea. Will I have an Android? No idea. Will I eat a big mac? Probably. Will I be on facebook? Maybe. Will I drink coke? Probably.

Then, of course, price matters. I worked in tech all my life and am amazed at how fast things rise and fall so I'm hesitant to invest in it .

That said... I've missed huge potential gains in Amazon, Apple, etc but I remember getting killed on a relatively modest "no brained" investment in Cisco in the late 1990s. They were, at one time, the biggest company on the planet and similarly had a pretty clear path to long term domination. Of course, they were expensive compared to apple on a P/E and cash basis.

Oh well... if only it were easy .


Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Early Retirement Forum mobile app