Which Vanguard fund

F

Florida

Recycles dryer sheets
Joined
Jun 17, 2007
Messages
84
would you purchase Monday for maximum return as a long term investment.
 
It's impossible to answer this - there are too many unspecified variables. For example, what's your risk tolerance? What model for the future evolution of American and world economies do you prefer? Do you believe that the assumptions that have served the 'mature' economies well for the past 220 years (with a few blips along the way) are sustainable? If not, when do we 'jump the shark' as the accumulated weight of our foolish unsustainable activities becomes too great to bear?

If you believe that the past is perfectly prologue, then all you have to do is scan the universe of VG funds and pick the one that has performed best over your time frame of interest.

Good luck! :D
 
Just wait till Monday and see what the market is doing. Whether you purchase the fund in the AM or the afternoon you still pay the closing price at 4 PM. So see what's happeing during the day and make your decission after 3PM but before 4PM.
 
Tough question without more information. Vanguard Energy will probably be one of the highest, if not THE highest return for the longer term. But I dont think I'd buy it on Monday...I think I'd wait until oil finishes going down.

For something thats been punched hard in the face this year but should be great long term, either the International Value or Intl Growth funds are good choices.

For something that hasnt taken too much of a beating, offers good diversity, and will probably do very well in the long haul, the Extended Market index.

Or just the plain old Total Stock Market. Hell, its beaten all the similar American funds over the last 15 years. And its cheap! :)
 
cute fuzzy bunny said:
Total Stock Market. Hell, its beaten all the similar American funds over the last 15 years. And its cheap! :)
Click to expand...

<pirate>Arrrr</pirate>, I think CFB is attempting to derail the thread with yet another Vanguard versus American funds fight. :bat:


And just to not be left out of the thread - I recommend purchasing VISVX Monday and holding it for 10-20 years.
 
I'd probably go with Vanguard Total Stock Market. It may not give you maximum return, but you'll beat at least one-half or more of all funds over the long term. I'm not prejudiced against other index funds, it's just that I have all of my assets with Vanguard.

No one can predict what will be the best fund to buy for the long term, but at least you can be rest assured that you won't end up in the bottom quadrant of the universe of mutual funds.
 
Retire Soon said:
I'd probably go with Vanguard Total Stock Market. It may not give you maximum return, but you'll beat at least one-half or more of all funds over the long term. I'm not prejudiced against other index funds, it's just that I have all of my assets with Vanguard.
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Total Stock Market is what I had in mind.
Just fishing for opinions.
 
VG Energy is a fave of mine for very long term. Mine is in a Roth so i get the tax advantage there.
VG Total Stock Market, coupled with Total Bond Market if you need that diversifer, are two excellent choices.
as far as buying it Monday goes, if you can time the market, let us all know that secret. j/k :D
 
I'd couple the TSM with the short term investment grade fund right now. Rates will eventually be headed up and the TBM will take a few bad dips when that happens. I dont think theres a whole lot of benefit to taking a slight return advantage coupled with a much higher risk component.
 
mickeyd said:
Sounds to me like a market timing question Florida. I would invest on Monday only if that was part of my overall investment plan (IPS). Since it is not, I will just sleep in.;)
Click to expand...

Time to DCA some sideline money.
 
Florida said:
would you purchase Monday for maximum return as a long term investment.
Click to expand...

For max return I'd go with the SCV index fund or the EM index fund. Those are the most risky in my book so they may not deliver the highest return.
 
I started my wife's 403b with one of the Targeted Date retirement funds. It's only down 8% since we started it last year!

Only down 8%!! Wow, and that seems good. It's probably one of my best performing funds.
 
x * Total Stock Index +
y * Total International Index +
z * Total Bond Index

Pick x,y,z to suit your risk profile.
 
cute fuzzy bunny said:
You've gotta love a fund that can run from a 60/40 to an 85/15 between one day and the next.
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Actually it would be 65/10/25 (stocks/bonds/cash) to 90/10/0, depending on the 25% in VAAPX.

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/JS...?tab=0&FundId=0078&FundIntExt=INT#hist::tab=0
Uses a computer model to evaluate expected returns and risks of stocks, bonds, and money market securities, and to recommend changes in allocation among them as expectations shift.
Click to expand...

[from the Semiannual Report 03/31/2008, it is available from the link above]
Still, although the Asset Allocation Fund can play an important role in your portfolio, it is not designed to be a core holding. When it is allocated 100% to stocks, you have no exposure to bonds. And the fund’s stock component, though diversified, is focused on larger U.S. companies, so it does not offer you exposure to smaller capitalization stocks or international stocks.
Also, when the fund includes a bond allocation, it typically invests only in long-term U.S. Treasuries. Therefore, the fund is best suited as just one part of a well-balanced portfolio that
features holdings across all parts of the stock and bond markets.
Click to expand...
 
It wouldnt go to a full 90% because each of the index funds holds ~2-3% in cash as a result of inflows and cash buffering for outflows.

The AA fund also RARELY goes into large amounts of cash and when it does allocate a portion to cash, its for a short period of time.
 
That Asset Allocation fund is something else. The current allocation is 100% stock -- which seems strange given the 1st goal and the current economic climate.

Goals are:

  • Seeks to maximize long-term total return (share price growth plus income) while incurring less stock market risk than a fund made up entirely of stocks.
  • Follows a tactical asset allocation strategy.
  • Uses a computer model to evaluate expected returns and risks of stocks, bonds, and money market securities, and to recommend changes in allocation among them as expectations shift.
Yet it's behind the TSM in YTD, 1, 3, 5, and 10 year performance. Maybe they need to work on their computer model.
 
73ss454 said:
Just wait till Monday and see what the market is doing. Whether you purchase the fund in the AM or the afternoon you still pay the closing price at 4 PM. So see what's happeing during the day and make your decission after 3PM but before 4PM.
Click to expand...

That makes no sense whatsoever. You'd get the closing price so you'd miss any daily move.
 
I guess you have to look at the basics of the AA funds methodology. Bonds arent paying squat and rates will be heading up soon, making the long treasuries the AA fund likes to use unappealing. Cash is paying almost nothing. Stocks are at a multi year low, and hence the best available buy.

The stated strategy is to return something in the vicinity of the S&P 500 with less volatility.

The strategy works well when the markets are moving within normal parameters. It works poorly when things like Nasdaq 5000, artificially low interest rates for multiple years, and other gross asset mispricing scenarios show up. Its particularly problematic when they keep showing up on a non stop basis.
 
They have been sitting on go for a while now - I used to check prior to 2006 when I owned Lifestrategy mod. and scratch my head trying to figure how they picked their asset mix. I guess coming up from the 02/03 bottom made stock look good but I developed no feel for how their quant model worked.

heh heh heh - :cool:
 
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