Driving RV to Baja

[REWahoo]

I have an engineer coworker from Monterrey, and he told me he would never drive home to see his family, but only fly. He said it's very common to be stopped on the road a little ways across the border, and a "safe travel insurance" would be demanded. If you don't pay, you risk the consequences further on down the road, he said. I don't know how often this actually happens, but he's convinced the risks are too high.

Similar story from our neighbors who have family in Monterrey. They no longer drive to visit for the same reason.

 

[Olbidness]

There are RV convoys that travel though out Mexico. It's not free but you travel with experienced people and in numbers that add a margin of safety. There are areas more at risk than others, just like the US. I know when I had to travel through Detroit on business, my internal radar was in constant alarm.

Even staying home has risk. My take on travel is to not take foolish risks and to mitigate them as much as possible.

I refuse to live my life in constant fear of the unknown.

 

[2017ish]

Well it is in certain areas. New Orleans is the murder capital of the US. The death rate in Chicago exceeds the death rate in all of Mexico. Southside even higher.
...

Now wait a minute, you can't underrate my former hometown! St. Louis wins that highly [not] coveted prize. New Orleans is only third. (Subject to the usual issues with stats--particularly given the fact that STL City Proper has a small geographic footprint, and you "need to include the county" etcetera etcetera...." And these rankings are for cities with over 250,000 people; there are more concentrated pockets out there....)

E.T.A.--Link from Detroit paper celebrating STL's victory: St. Louis overtakes Detroit as nation’s murder capital

 

[Gone4Good]

First, the bad thing about a forum is it seems like arguing with the back and forth. I hope you don't take it that way.

No worries.

What I read seems to be a statement of facts. What inferences are taken from this depends on the reader's age, experiences, travel history, current living arrangement and on and on. How would you write it?

How I'd write travel warnings that are useful for travelers is a good and fair question.

The first thing I'd do is exercise a great deal of editorial discretion in choosing which facts were relevant to highlight for travelers.

A single incident, on a single day, in a single city that resulted in the deaths of 0.002% of the French population is not something I'd choose to highlight as a legitimate risk for travelers to France.

Nor would I highlight that in the U.S. more people die from firearms each week than have died at the hands of terrorists in France since the turn of the century. It's factually accurate. It's also entirely irrelevant to people visiting the U.S. (although it might be useful for American's looking to decrease their risk by spending some time in France

The only things we do by highlighting these kinds of facts and labeling them as "government warning" is overstate their significance and therefore undermine the credibility of all other travel warnings.

I'd similarly avoid highlighting generalized risks that are present everywhere (sorry, but terrorism pretty much fits the bill these days for any major city.) So no warnings about crime either unless the level of crime is particularly elevated.

And if I'm warning about crime, I'm going to want to be specific about what kinds of crime, where it tends to happen, and who are the most likely victims. In Mexico the victims are often people who engage in the drug trade and not tourists.

If there's specific regions or neighborhoods where crime is endemic, then I'd want to convey that specific information as well. And also make sure I highlight if there are areas not similarly effected. Mexico certainly has places that are perfectly safe along with other regions that are not so safe.

Because only with specific, targeted, and relevant information can people actually take actions to protect themselves.

 

[Options]

In a cab in TJ about 5 years ago, a jeep came alongside us, armed with a machine gun about 7 or 8' long, and manned by Federal police or soldiers or something. I asked the driver if he felt safe in TJ, and he told me most shootings, beheadings (yes, there have been beheadings/mutilations in recent years), and other violence were drug-related. If you stayed away, he said, you were okay.

No way would I drive an RV anywhere in Mexico. In recent years, an American couple were jailed and the wife was raped while in "custody". I recall it was a mess for them, legally and otherwise, due to cover up and them not wanting to release the wife.

Years ago I would have and in fact did drive in Baja. Today I would not. It is a different Mexico.

 

[r2021t]

The first thing I'd do is exercise a great deal of editorial discretion in choosing which facts were relevant to highlight for travelers.

You make some very good points. No question. The firearm stat was a nice zing. I'm not taking that bait except to say associating "typical" crime statistics with singular catastrophic terrorist events seems to mix the fruits and nuts a little. I know, you did say later you wouldn't highlight such things after you highlighted them.

If I'm stating your point of view correctly, and taking France as the example, you wouldn't post anything about the terrorist threat as it isn't pertinent to traveler safety because the event itself is statistically insignificant and unlikely to be repeated. Fair enough. I'll concede both of these points. If I go there, I probably won't be shot while attending a concert.

Will my flights be delayed? Will attractions be closed? Will there be a rather large and heavily armed contingent of men and women redirecting local travel and activities? Will that increased law enforcement in one place cause the criminal element to change locations? Perhaps to where I'm staying? Will I be searched at places and times I wouldn't normally be searched? Will public transportation be affected?

I traveled just after 911 and all of these things happened to me. Right here in the US. I'll bet some of this is still happening in France today. If my travel is going to be disrupted in some significant way, can I get a warning? An advisory? A Post It note? Something? Unless I'm not comprehending what you've said, I won't get much warning from your travel advisory office, if any at all. That's fine. I'm all for less government intervention. I certainly don't want my travel decisions controlled by a bureaucrat but you really aren't giving me information to make any decision.

 

[Letj]

Well it is in certain areas. New Orleans is the murder capital of the US. The death rate in Chicago exceeds the death rate in all of Mexico. Southside even higher.

I enjoy the drive through northern Mexico (through Nogales), but I would not drive it at night. But I would not drive through Alabama either.

The average American is not at risk even if they lived in inner city Chicago. The fact is that the vast majority of murders in the US are targeted. I would be more worried about Mexico where much of the crime is predatory in nature, often targeting the perceived haves.

 

[dixonge]

The average American is not at risk even if they lived in inner city Chicago. The fact is that the vast majority of murders in the US are targeted. I would be more worried about Mexico where much of the crime is predatory in nature, often targeting the perceived haves.

Do you have stats to back up that claim?


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[Letj]

I certainly can post the stats but I don't think it's necessary. It's pretty well known that randomly murdering people even in the commission of a crime such as carjacking or robbery is rare in the US. Obviously it does happen like the unfortunate family that was recently killed along with their maid and that family lived in an upscale neighborhood in Northern Virginia but no amount of precaution or avoiding a certain part of town would keep you safe from those type of murders.


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[Gone4Good]

If my travel is going to be disrupted in some significant way, can I get a warning? An advisory? A Post It note? Something? Unless I'm not comprehending what you've said, I won't get much warning from your travel advisory office, if any at all.

I don't have a problem with the kind of advisory you're discussing. But it doesn't belong under a Safety and Security headline, which is what the State Department advisory is for.

Besides, the best place for that kind of information isn't the State Department. Travel forums like Thorne Tree are great for that kind of stuff. There you can connect with real people on the ground, who are sharing real experiences in real cities in real time.

 

[dixonge]

The average American is not at risk even if they lived in inner city Chicago. The fact is that the vast majority of murders in the US are targeted. I would be more worried about Mexico where much of the crime is predatory in nature, often targeting the perceived haves.

On second thought, never mind the source or stats behind your statement here, because I don't understand what you are saying. First you state the majority of US murders are targeted. Then you say that crime in Mexico 'often targets' people.

So we're comparing crime to murders, and we worry more about Mexico crime than US murders. Could I just ask you to clarify what you intended to say? Also, how are you defining 'targeting?'

 

[Fermion]

So just out of curiosity I pulled up the murder rate in Mexico and the USA:

Murder rate per million people Mexico: 218.49 USA 42.01

And Canada is about 18 per million.

So go north in your RV, not south.

 

[dixonge]

So just out of curiosity I pulled up the murder rate in Mexico and the USA:

Murder rate per million people Mexico: 218.49 USA 42.01

And Canada is about 18 per million.

So go north in your RV, not south.

Where in the world are you getting that number? That Mexico number is more than double the actual rate of the most violent country in the world. Mexico isn't even in the top 10!

These 10 Countries Have The World's Highest Murder Rates

(Source: UN Global Study on Homicide )

EDITED:

I think I found your source, but that number is just wrong. I do see where NationMaster has Mexico listed at 218+ Mexico Crime Stats

That stands in stark contrast to the links I just provided. I think that part of the discrepancy is due to counting murders vs. 'intentional homicides' which seems to be an effort to distinguish between deaths in gun battles between rival cartel groups and/or Federales and what we typically think of when we think of homicide. There are also questions about reporting accuracies, both in Mexico and the U.S.

 

[Meadbh]

Where in the world are you getting that number? That Mexico number is more than double the actual rate of the most violent country in the world. Mexico isn't even in the top 10!

These 10 Countries Have The World's Highest Murder Rates

(Source: UN Global Study on Homicide )

EDITED:

I think I found your source, but that number is just wrong. I do see where NationMaster has Mexico listed at 218+ Mexico Crime Stats

That stands in stark contrast to the links I just provided. I think that part of the discrepancy is due to counting murders vs. 'intentional homicides' which seems to be an effort to distinguish between deaths in gun battles between rival cartel groups and/or Federales and what we typically think of when we think of homicide. There are also questions about reporting accuracies, both in Mexico and the U.S.

It's very important to cite numbers using the same denominator. Fermion is quoting rates per million, while dixonge is quoting rates per hundred thousand.

The attached table is from the original report referenced in dixonge's link. The denominator is 100,000. Apologies, I could not rotate the screenshot.

 

[kcowan]

I traveled just after 911 and all of these things happened to me. Right here in the US.

Yes we traveled from Vancouver to New Orleans on Oct. 1, 2001. Although we noticed increased security at the airport in Minneapolis, we encountered full planes and full hotels when we got there. The week was uneventful from a security viewpoint.

 

[travelover]

Interesting back and forth. I feel like I'm reading the comments section of an on line newspaper.

Perhaps statistics that relate directly to crime against tourists would be more useful, though I can see where these might be fudged or minimized to keep the tourist industry happy.

 

[dixonge]

It's very important to cite numbers using the same denominator. Fermion is quoting rates per million, while dixonge is quoting rates per hundred thousand.

Bingo! Missed that part..


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[Gone4Good]

Perhaps statistics that relate directly to crime against tourists would be more useful, though I can see where these might be fudged or minimized to keep the tourist industry happy.

So lets roll our own.

According to the State Department 20 MM Americans visited Mexico and another 1MM live there. So if we assume each visitor spent an average of 5 days and each resident spent an average of 50 weeks in the country, that works out to be 450MM days Americans spent in Mexico each year.

Now according to the State Department travel warning section on Mexico, about 100 Americans were murdered in Mexico in each of the last two years. They don't tell us the circumstances of those murders - where they killed by friends, where they participating in crime, etc. - but let's assume they're all innocent tourists gunned down while sipping margaritas.

That leaves us with 100 murders over 450MM person days in the country. That means on any given day an American in Mexico has about a 1 in 4,500,000 chance of being murdered.

To put that number in perspective, the risk from dying while scuba diving (a popular sport off the coast of Mexico) is 1 in 200,000.

 

[Fermion]

So lets roll our own.

According to the State Department 20 MM Americans visited Mexico and another 1MM live there. So if we assume each visitor spent an average of 5 days and each resident spent an average of 50 weeks in the country, that works out to be 450MM days Americans spent in Mexico each year.

Now according to the State Department travel warning section on Mexico, about 100 Americans were murdered in Mexico in each of the last two years. They don't tell us the circumstances of those murders - where they killed by friends, where they participating in crime, etc. - but let's assume they're all innocent tourists gunned down while sipping margaritas.

That leaves us with 100 murders over 450MM person days in the country. That means on any given day an American in Mexico has about a 1 in 4,500,000 chance of being murdered.

To put that number in perspective, the risk from dying while scuba diving (a popular sport off the coast of Mexico) is 1 in 200,000.

But your risk of dying while wing suit gliding in Mexico is 1 in 500

 

[tfudtuckerpucker]

So lets roll our own.

That leaves us with 100 murders over 450MM person days in the country. That means on any given day an American in Mexico has about a 1 in 4,500,000 chance of being murdered.

To put that number in perspective, the risk from dying while scuba diving (a popular sport off the coast of Mexico) is 1 in 200,000.

So are we only discussing the murder rate of Americans? What about having a gun shoved in your face? What about implied threats without weapons (the "offer" of "safety insurance")? These might be more difficult to measure, but probably many orders of magnitude higher.

 

[dixonge]

So lets roll our own.

According to the State Department 20 MM Americans visited Mexico and another 1MM live there. So if we assume each visitor spent an average of 5 days and each resident spent an average of 50 weeks in the country, that works out to be 450MM days Americans spent in Mexico each year.

Now according to the State Department travel warning section on Mexico, about 100 Americans were murdered in Mexico in each of the last two years. They don't tell us the circumstances of those murders - where they killed by friends, where they participating in crime, etc. - but let's assume they're all innocent tourists gunned down while sipping margaritas.

That leaves us with 100 murders over 450MM person days in the country. That means on any given day an American in Mexico has about a 1 in 4,500,000 chance of being murdered.

To put that number in perspective, the risk from dying while scuba diving (a popular sport off the coast of Mexico) is 1 in 200,000.

I was thinking about this while out walking with the DW this morning. The true measure of risk is much more specific than statistics can cover. So 200 American citizens (out of millions) visiting or living in Mexico were killed. What is that expressed in rate per hundred thousand? How does that compare to an American just living in America?

Also, just randomly clicking on some Google searches brings up another point - being an American citizen doesn't mean you are of European descent. Your entire family can be Mexican but have US citizenship, or maybe you were born here. This would definitely be a factor driving across the border, differentiating you from, say, me. Or you could be married to a Mexican. Many factors go into this. Until you know the breakdown, you can't really assess your true risk.

 

[dixonge]

So are we only discussing the murder rate of Americans? What about having a gun shoved in your face? What about implied threats without weapons (the "offer" of "safety insurance")? These might be more difficult to measure, but probably many orders of magnitude higher.

We can discuss it, but it would be meaningless without some sort of actual, verifiable numbers. Do you have any?

 

[OrcasIslandBound]

I've traveled to Mexico with a small camper shell several times. 1987 for 3 weeks to Cabo San Lucas, no problems. ~ 1989 w Beaver camper, surrounded by Federales with machine guns pointed at us, once. 9 pm at night, ended with us giving them hot dogs, they went away happy. We moved the campsite at 9 pm to a different place.

But, then, my DW and I took a cab from Tijuana to a restaurant called Guadalajara Grill, on the way there the cab driver took us into a shopping center parking lot. Two guys with big guns looked us over and left. The cab driver paid a token to exit the lot and continued on the way to the restaurant. We didn't, apparently, look like the people they were after that day. Never went back after that. This took place ~ 1997.

 

[Gone4Good]

So 200 American citizens (out of millions) visiting or living in Mexico were killed. What is that expressed in rate per hundred thousand? How does that compare to an American just living in America?

If we did the same math I did above using the U.S. murder rate of ~42 per million with a population of 330MM, you come up with a risk of being murdered in the U.S. of 1 in 8.6MM per day.

That puts the risk of being murdered in Mexico on any given day at roughly double that in the US.

Which sounds about right to me. Nobody is saying that Mexico is as safe as the U.S. It isn't.

So if someone lives their life worrying about 1 in ~5MM possibilities, then they really should stay home. And I'd wager they already do.

 

[Gone4Good]

So are we only discussing the murder rate of Americans? What about having a gun shoved in your face? What about implied threats without weapons (the "offer" of "safety insurance")? These might be more difficult to measure, but probably many orders of magnitude higher.

Are you looking for data to help form an opinion or are you just fishing for a way to confirm an existing opinion?

Either way, I don't think the data needed to answer your question actually exists.

What I can offer by way of answer, though, is what I've experienced over the past 65 days in Mexico. During the past two months we've traveled to 13 different locations across the south and central parts of the country. We've taken public transportation; spent two weeks in Mexico City and traveled extensively on the subway.

We've not once had a gun shoved in our faces. We've never had a single person even speak harshly to us let alone threaten us in any way. And we've never witnessed any of those things happening to anyone else either.

When we go out after dark, the streets and parks are generally crowded with people of all kinds, including families and women out by themselves. In that sense it doesn't feel like a country under siege or one that is "lawless in every way" as one commentor here so delicately put it.

Having said that, in many places there is a pretty visible presence of heavily armed police. They are their for a reason. So walking down the street in Mexico City doesn't have the same vibe as strolling through Des Moines, Iowa (but that's also kind of the point of traveling).

Overall, we've never felt unsafe anywhere we've traveled in Mexico. And we wouldn't hesitate to spend future winters here.

YMMV