When and How Will the Pendulum Swing Back?

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There is no "solution" to the problem. There are various approaches to addressing it.

With all due respect samclem, I see nothing in what you have suggested that would do anything to help address the economic meltdown that we are facing. You've admitted that you basically want govt. to get out of the way, and let the chips fall where they may. That may satisfy your desire for a smaller and less intrusive govt., but it does nothing to constructively address the situation we are facing. It is possible that the current mess we're in would eventually self-correct without govt. intervention, without leading to a major crisis far worse than anything we have now, but I wouldn't want to bet the whole economy on it, as you seem willing to do.
 
With all due respect samclem, I see nothing in what you have suggested that would do anything to help address the economic meltdown that we are facing. You've admitted that you basically want govt. to get out of the way, and let the chips fall where they may. That may satisfy your desire for a smaller and less intrusive govt., but it does nothing to constructively address the situation we are facing. It is possible that the current mess we're in would eventually self-correct without govt. intervention, without leading to a major crisis far worse than anything we have now, but I wouldn't want to bet the whole economy on it, as you seem willing to do.
Ultimate the economy will reach an equilibrium whether we "do nothing" or we go through with the "stimulus" - no changing that, just a question of when. The question is which will be faster and which less painful?

"Do nothing" will punish all of us, those who over-leveraged themselves especially. The "stimulus" will punish all of us, while seemingly rewarding "bad behavior" to some extent. And the latter will increase deficits, debt and ultimately taxes and the size of government (likely a permanent setback)- might get a healthy dose of inflation to boot. I'd rather try the approach that does not ensure higher debt or taxes, what's the downside? If "do nothing" increases debt and taxes, how is that likely to be worse? Stimulus supporters like to point out that we'll all be hurt by "do nothing" - of course "stimulus" will hurt at least as much in the end.

I saw it posed on another thread - can anyone point to a government "stimulus" type intervention that clearly corrected a recession/depression (aside from Hitler & Mussolini)?
 
RAE....I agree with what you said. I think some on this thread represent what is increasingly becoming a fringe "Herbert Hoover" movement who believe "let the chips fall where they may". It is one alternative to the current situation but I can't buy it. Luckily I don't think the country is with them on that.


1. On HH - he was the opposite of what you are saying.

Herbert Hoover - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Hoover deeply believed in the Efficiency Movement (a major component of the Progressive Era),

Efficiency Movement - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The Efficiency Movement was a major dimension of the Progressive Era in the United States. It flourished 1890-1932. Adherents argued that all aspects of the economy, society and government were riddled with waste and inefficiency. Everything would be better if experts identified the problems and fixed them. The result was strong support for building research universities and schools of business and engineering, municipal research agencies, as well as reform of hospitals and medical schools.

2. "Fringe" most movements have been described as such at their beginning from abolitionist to the Viet Nam protesters. (Unless you are attempting to be dismissive by choosing that word.)
 
In the 80's the COLT States Colorado, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and Texas had a housing bubble. The government did not come to the aid of the home owners. Saving and loans, banks big and small were closed and sold off. The RTC took over the properties and liquidated them. These four states survived. If this is Nationalization then lets get it done.

What we are doing now reminds me of the mentality of every kid in the race must get a prize, so everyone goes home a winner.
 
Our society is past being fiscally responsible. I believe we'll keep living beyond our means until the Chinese and others stop lending or the currency collapses.Time will tell.
 
bold mine:

What I am saying is that I am willing to pay the higher taxes that Obama proposes by those most fortunate in this society (I am one of them per his definition) if it will right the ship of state.

OK, but what makes you think his plan as stated is a good plan to "right the ship"? And if it were, wouldn't the markets be doing the jubilation jig?

And by his definition, I am NOT one of those that will be paying higher taxes. But I still don;'t like the plan, because I don't see enough in there to stimulate business to create jobs. What I see is spending on things the govt wants to spend on, and bailing out bad decisions, and calling that "stimulus".

-ERD50
 
Our society is past being fiscally responsible. I believe we'll keep living beyond our means until the Chinese and others stop lending or the currency collapses.Time will tell.

The Chinese and others will stop lending but the currency won't collapse, at least for a while. We'll just accelerate the trend of selling land and infrastructure to foreign investors who have grown weary of lending to us. Chicago has already sold Midway airport and the Chicago Skyway (a toll road) and I'm sure more will follow. When others own our roads and bridges, airports, rail lines, harbors, local, state and federal parks, farmland, manufacturing and other capital....... then the final end will be in sight.

I wonder how much we can get for the rights to the fresh water in the Great Lakes?
 
The Chinese and others will stop lending...

Hard to say. What's happened to China's economy shows that happens to them when the U.S. economy suffers a serious slowdown. I don't think it's in their best interest to use the nuclear option to tank the dollar or cause the rate on Treasuries (and thus all other borrowing) to skyrocket.

It could be that continued buying of Treasuries despite the apparent watering down of their value through eventual inflation and erosion of the dollar -- and the added credit risk -- is the "lesser of two evils" for China compared pulling the plug and watching their entire export market shrivel to near nothing. That may not last forever, but for now and the foreseeable future, I think it is. The Chinese government, for whatever else its flaws, is neither stupid nor shortsighted.

For better or worse, the U.S. needs Chinese investment and China needs the U.S. economy to flourish. It's an uneasy symbiosis, but it is what it is for the time being.
 
The Chinese government, for whatever else its flaws, is neither stupid nor shortsighted.

For better or worse, the U.S. needs Chinese investment and China needs the U.S. economy to flourish. It's an uneasy symbiosis, but it is what it is for the time being.

All true. OTOH, the PRC government may not continue to act with the measured, rational steps we've seen in the past. There's considerable social pressure building in China--huge numbers of peasants who moved from the provinces to the city for jobs are now out of work and hungry. They've seen what prosperity looks like and they have seen that capitalism can lead to wealth--or at least chance at wealth. They've changed a lot since they left the farm. This is the type of situation that leads to social unrest. If it grows worse, the government will do what it must to clamp down on internal dissent while using the time-proven tactic of searching for an external enemy on which to focus popular attention and whip up support for the government. China's derailment from the (slow) course it has been on toward capitalism could be yet another unfortunate impact of the present downturn.
 
Hard to say. What's happened to China's economy shows that happens to them when the U.S. economy suffers a serious slowdown. I don't think it's in their best interest to use the nuclear option to tank the dollar or cause the rate on Treasuries (and thus all other borrowing) to skyrocket.

It could be that continued buying of Treasuries despite the apparent watering down of their value through eventual inflation and erosion of the dollar -- and the added credit risk -- is the "lesser of two evils" for China compared pulling the plug and watching their entire export market shrivel to near nothing. That may not last forever, but for now and the foreseeable future, I think it is. The Chinese government, for whatever else its flaws, is neither stupid nor shortsighted.

For better or worse, the U.S. needs Chinese investment and China needs the U.S. economy to flourish. It's an uneasy symbiosis, but it is what it is for the time being.

You missed my point. Correct, the Chinese are not stupid and don't want to destroy their export market. But their lack of stupidity also tells them that shipping us goods in exchange for soon-to-be worthless paper ain't so smart either. They'll be wanting more collateral than just our promise to pay later. So, we'll have to pick up the pace on shipping them our natural resources and deeds to our land, infrasturcture and capital.
 
You missed my point. Correct, the Chinese are not stupid and don't want to destroy their export market. But their lack of stupidity also tells them that shipping us goods in exchange for worthless paper ain't so smart either. They'll be wanting more collateral than just our promise to pay later.
I'm not sure I missed it completely. Yes, I agree they may want to try to get more advantageous terms than to ship everything and getting likely depreciating currency in the longer term, but not to the extent that Treasury prices crumble. That would cause their yields to spike, putting a lower bound on pretty much ALL other borrowing, including even the best corporate risks, causing new Treasury debt to be issued at much higher rates (making it harder to pay back) and seriously jeopardize any recovery -- and possibly make it worse.

It may well be that the Chinese would like to do this, but for the time being I don't think causing a spike in the cost of borrowing for the U.S. government or American businesses (read: employers) is likely something China wants to set in motion. Not at this fragile juncture, anyway.
 
I'm not sure I missed it completely. Yes, I agree they may want to try to get more advantageous terms than to ship everything and getting likely depreciating currency in the longer term, but not to the extent that Treasury prices crumble. That would cause their yields to spike, putting a lower bound on pretty much ALL other borrowing, including even the best corporate risks, causing new Treasury debt to be issued at much higher rates (making it harder to pay back) and seriously jeopardize any recovery -- and possibly make it worse.

It may well be that the Chinese would like to do this, but for the time being I don't think causing a spike in the cost of borrowing for the U.S. government or American businesses (read: employers) is likely something China wants to set in motion. Not at this fragile juncture, anyway.

Well neither you nor I have shown ourselves to be very talented at predicting the future, so I guess we'll have to wait and see. I'll stand with my position that the Chinese, and others, will own more tangible property while holding fewer notes going forward. Whether it's airports, harbors, major urban buildings, land or natural resource rights, look for foreign concerns to increase ownership in lieu of holding our paper in the future.
 
Well neither you nor I have shown ourselves to be very talented at predicting the future, so I guess we'll have to wait and see. I'll stand with my position that the Chinese, and others, will own more tangible property while holding fewer notes going forward. Whether it's airports, harbors, major urban buildings, land or natural resource rights, look for foreign concerns to increase ownership in lieu of holding our paper in the future.

That's ok - cause we can tax, regulate, & restrict the heck out of those things - esp. with the Dem's in power :D:D:D
 
"Give banks money so they will lend." (I think the suckers are falling for it!)

"Rely on the same market forces that have proven to be the best system for allocating capital, labor, and other resources." We definitely need to modify some regulations and improve oversight to assure risks and reward are transparent and alligned, but that's a far cry from nationalizing the economy and throwing money at the very actors, big and small, who have proven least adept at using money responsibly.

Exactly. Do not give money to the banks that are "in trouble".

If you want to free up consumer credit just deposit money in the thousands of credit unions and savings and loans that are perfectly fine.

They will lend it responsibly and make money collecting the interest and principal.
 
Exactly. Do not give money to the banks that are "in trouble".

If you want to free up consumer credit just deposit money in the thousands of credit unions and savings and loans that are perfectly fine.

They will lend it responsibly and make money collecting the interest and principal.

Exactly, let all of those troubled banks fail and fail miserably such that we have a cascading effect throughout the entire system, then lets bankrupt the deposit insurance system and tie the pension guaranty system in knots (and not bail out depositors and pensioners with any federal money), squeeze all those credit engines dry by not providing any more liquidity into the system, and let the chips fall where they might fall!

We can all get loans and credit from the neighborhood loan shark.

Do nothing (or Santelli's "F___ them all" rant) is not a plan either -- just a recipe for greater disaster and with the potential for civil unrest.
 
Exactly, let all of those troubled banks fail and fail miserably such that we have a cascading effect throughout the entire system, then lets bankrupt the deposit insurance system and tie the pension guaranty system in knots (and not bail out depositors and pensioners with any federal money), squeeze all those credit engines dry by not providing any more liquidity into the system, and let the chips fall where they might fall!

We can all get loans and credit from the neighborhood loan shark.

Do nothing (or Santelli's "F___ them all" rant) is not a plan either -- just a recipe for greater disaster and with the potential for civil unrest.

Oh, the humanity! And they will take away everyone's birthday, for good measure.

Look at the bottomless pit this has become. The entire economy is in limbo while everyone waits to see when/if the feds will/will not bail out this entity or that. And we're not even talking about the tax bills that will come due.

We have a process for liquidating banks--the FDIC runs it. Some of the more "extreme" proposals for repairing the system have mentioned nationalization of the banks, but in one sense this is not extreme at all--the government briefly nationalizes insolvent banks all the time through the FDIC. It's not a good deal for the targeted bank, which is why they try to avoid it by staying solvent (exactly as it should be). But when it is implemented, it is orderly, transparent, and brief.
If/Once the government bailout gravy train stops, I think people will be amazed how fast the private deals materialize to buy up discounted assets. But those deals won't happen as long as the irresponsible ("troubled") entities can realistically hold out in hopes for a better deal from Uncle Sam. They are behaving rationally.
 
Do nothing (or Santelli's "F___ them all" rant) is not a plan either -- just a recipe for greater disaster and with the potential for civil unrest.

Is that what Santelli said? Hmmm, here's the text:

Rick Santelli Rant Transcript « America’s Tea Party

How many of you people want to pay for your neighbor’s mortgage that has an extra bathroom and can’t pay their bills?

I can turn that around - if someone bought a house they couldn't afford, or got a mortgage with no concern about how future payments may change, and NOW they want *me* to pay their mortgage after it went bad (but would not share the profit with me if the leverage went well), well *those* people are saying "Eff you for being responsible, I want my MTV - money for nothin', get your chicks for free".

I think *that* is a recipe for social unrest.

-ERD50
 
We have a process for liquidating banks--the FDIC runs it. Some of the more "extreme" proposals for repairing the system have mentioned nationalization of the banks, but in one sense this is not extreme at all--the government briefly nationalizes insolvent banks all the time through the FDIC. It's not a good deal for the targeted bank, which is why they try to avoid it by staying solvent (exactly as it should be). But when it is implemented, it is orderly, transparent, and brief.
If/Once the government bailout gravy train stops, I think people will be amazed how fast the private deals materialize to buy up discounted assets. But those deals won't happen as long as the irresponsible ("troubled") entities can realistically hold out in hopes for a better deal from Uncle Sam. They are behaving rationally.

Yeah, but you're missing the real point. The process does not entail liquidating banks that are too big too fail! At one end of the process, the gummint (principally through the FDIC) orderly resolves troubled institutions and the FDIC takes care of depositors (a form of Government subsidy and intervention that you don't seem to have an issue with, correct, so much for moral hazard and unregulated capitalism) and at the other end the gummint can't "liquidate" banks that are too big too fail. So, the rant against pumping money in mega-troubled banks is misplaced -- it's part of the process designed to deal with systemic risk.
 
Is that what Santelli said? Hmmm, here's the text:

Rick Santelli Rant Transcript « America’s Tea Party



I can turn that around - if someone bought a house they couldn't afford, or got a mortgage with no concern about how future payments may change, and NOW they want *me* to pay their mortgage after it went bad (but would not share the profit with me if the leverage went well), well *those* people are saying "Eff you for being responsible, I want my MTV - money for nothin', get your chicks for free".

I think *that* is a recipe for social unrest.



-ERD50

Ok, you got me on misreading Santelli's rant.
 
Exactly. Do not give money to the banks that are "in trouble".

If you want to free up consumer credit just deposit money in the thousands of credit unions and savings and loans that are perfectly fine.

They will lend it responsibly and make money collecting the interest and principal.

Wow.

This may work for an auto loan but big banks are needed for big investments. Building a Fab is much more difficult if there are 50 credit unions in the room all trying to negotiate terms.
 
Wow.

This may work for an auto loan but big banks are needed for big investments. Building a Fab is much more difficult if there are 50 credit unions in the room all trying to negotiate terms.

There's a shiny, new, EMPTY fab in Richardson, TX you could probably get cheap...
 
. . . resolves troubled institutions and the FDIC takes care of depositors (a form of Government subsidy and intervention that you don't seem to have an issue with, correct, so much for moral hazard and unregulated capitalism)
Because, just like it says on the little sign at the deposit window, federal insurance was always part of the deal. It's not a new twist, it's not a new giveaway, and it was already priced into the product. Maybe the price of the government insurance was too low, but at any rate, depositors accepted lower interest rates in exchange for the government guarantee. So, the government needs to pay up. There was no such gaurantee for stock or bondholders of these institutions, and their losses, to use a technical financial term, are "tough luck."

. . . and at the other end the gummint can't "liquidate" banks that are too big too fail. So, the rant against pumping money in mega-troubled banks is misplaced -- it's part of the process designed to deal with systemic risk.
"Process" might be too complimentary by far for what we are seeing. A good alternative process (that has been proven to work) is the Resolution Trust Corp. It was expensive, but much less expensive (at the end of the day) than what we are doing now. The government recovered approx 50 cents on the dollar, and the toxic assets were scrubbed off the balance sheets and we moved on. If we'd done then what we are doing now, I guess we'd still be keeping those damaged S&Ls on life support and wondering if the pain would ever end. The RTC model is scaleable, and would work fine under the present situation. We just need someone in DC with the backbone to tell it like it is, make the hard decision, and administer the medicine. Like you, I won't hold my breath waiting for this to happen.
 
Because, just like it says on the little sign at the deposit window, federal insurance was always part of the deal. It's not a new twist, it's not a new giveaway, and it was already priced into the product. Maybe the price of the government insurance was too low, but at any rate, depositors accepted lower interest rates in exchange for the government guarantee. So, the government needs to pay up. There was no such gaurantee for stock or bondholders of these institutions, and their losses, to use a technical financial term, are "tough luck."

Where do you get this stuff from Samclem? Deposit insurance is a corruption of the free market -- it was ushered in by that last great government socialist, FDR. Without deposit insurance, we had a total lack of confidence in the banking system which resulted in panic and inaccessibility of credit.

Priced into the product? At what price? Didn't I just get a $150K increase in my insurance without doing anything or paying for that? You mean if the Government ran the deposit insurance program as a private business the cost of deposit insurance incurred by the banks would be much higher? You also mean we consumers really have a choice to go to an uninsured institution for deposits; how many states do you think currently allow state banks to be uninsured? and there's not one federal chartered depository institution that's uninsured.

I point out federal deposit insurance because it is one true success story of government intervention into the market place.

Deposit insurance is there simply to instill confidence in the banking system. Without that confidence, we'd be going through rounds and rounds of great depressions. And the idea of protecting, in limited cases, some bondholders and perhaps some equity interests in institutions that are too big too fail, is based on the same notion that we need to bolster up engines of credit and institutions critical to our payments systems because the alternative is to take a hit on "confidence" which is perhaps the single most important aspect of psychology driving the markets right now and ultimately the real economy.

"Process" might be too complimentary by far for what we are seeing. A good alternative process (that has been proven to work) is the Resolution Trust Corp. It was expensive, but much less expensive (at the end of the day) than what we are doing now. The government recovered approx 50 cents on the dollar, and the toxic assets were scrubbed off the balance sheets and we moved on. If we'd done then what we are doing now, I guess we'd still be keeping those damaged S&Ls on life support and wondering if the pain would ever end. The RTC model is scaleable, and would work fine under the present situation. We just need someone in DC with the backbone to tell it like it is, make the hard decision, and administer the medicine. Like you, I won't hold my breath waiting for this to happen.

Apples and oranges; the RTC process of shutting down numerous failing thrifts is simply not available here for banks too big too fail like Citi; BTW, there's nothing new with this process it was done in the 1930's with the Reconstruction Finance Corporation and the FDIC, before there was an RTC. And the FDIC continues the process; it does not work well with banks too big too fail!

RTC never shut down a mega, mega thrift; and each of the mega institutions resolved by the FDIC over the past 40 years have had "bridge banks" formed (like the conservatorship in IndyMac) and in many cases there was a "good bank, bad bank" division of balance sheets. I suspect what the Government is now doing is out of the textbooks of success they've had in the past -- the problems however are so big and daunting this time around, however: dealing with AIG, IndyMac, WaMu, Bearns Stearns, Lehman, B of A, and the toxic mess is truly unprecedented. The savings and loan mess of the 1980's and 1990's does not even remotedly approach the mess we're now facing!
 
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