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-   -   Bonds have outperformed stocks the last 40 years? (http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/bonds-have-outperformed-stocks-the-last-40-years-43498.html)

cardude 04-01-2009 11:17 AM

Bonds have outperformed stocks the last 40 years?
 
http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/pdf/mwo032809.pdf

MasterBlaster 04-01-2009 11:27 AM

Do the comparisons in the paper include dividends ?

I would like to know a bit more about what exactly that chart is as it isn't exactly clear what is plotted.

In a perfect world I would like to see the effects of dividends and inflation on the graph.

Free To Canoe 04-01-2009 11:52 AM

Good to see someone write a biased report favoring bonds. There were many in the past writing biased reports favoring stocks.
Seems to be going out of his way to make a gloomy point. New home sales down (currently). The point is to scare us toward bonds?
Unbiased reports get more respect from me.

Free

charlie 04-01-2009 03:27 PM

I would rather see a rolling 10 year comparison of stocks and bonds than
just one 40 year period. I suspect the outcome would vary quite a bit
depending on which period you select.

Cheers,

charlie

Gone4Good 04-01-2009 05:50 PM

I wonder how many of those periods where bonds outperformed stocks started with 10-yr bonds yielding 2.65% as they do now?

My strong suspicion . . . None.

Just for comparison purposes, a 2.65% bond yield is equivalent to a 37.7x P/E with zero growth in "E". Yuck!

mathjak107 04-01-2009 05:59 PM

rates have steadily dropped over the last 40 years to the point we are now...i wouldnt count on that happening again from these rediculious levels

Dennis 04-02-2009 05:15 PM

yes, and alot of spin Dr.'s ( Cloumnist etc. ) comming out of the woodwork, as they do during every Bear market ( and Annuity Salesmen too )...
All I know is what My Treasuries and GNMA bonds have done since past 9 yrs and that's about 10% on the Treas and 6.4% on the GNMA's and I didn't count on any of my Bonds in my retirement to do better than 6% apy..for Financial Planning ...

Treas paid off very well in the previous Bear yrs of 00-02' and of course last yr...
Me? I'm waiting to see when we get hyperInflation, "Bernekeet" Does what Greenspan Said he should of done and raised rates and see how High Bernekeet has the Gonads to raise those rates... maybe 8-10% For 30 yr LT Treas, like in Carter Yrs, would be nice..

For Recvoery Yrs? It's Been move the Bond $ into EMarket Bonds ..worked In the Last recovery of 03' & 04', should repeat again this time around ( already about +8% YTD )

But then again, Bonds ave 6%, Equities ave 9% and Those Equities are at 15% CG's, not like those Bonds being at your Income Tax Rate is or will be when you retire..
So, I wouldn't go Jumping into all bonds just because of last yr....At the Most? A conservative Balance Fund Like a PRPFX, HSTRX or OAKBX

FIRE'd@51 04-02-2009 05:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mathjak107 (Post 802577)
rates have steadily dropped over the last 40 years to the point we are now

more like 27 years


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