LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter

papadad111 said:
No worry. Like stones in a babbling brook. Just have to reach down and pick up a few when the timing is right.

I would never trade like this in my portfolio. This market timing stuff is just fun /mad money. It's fun to see how much one can parlay a position.

I don't have the guts any longer to do this for my main portfolio. In my 20's. Yes. Not now.
Click to expand...


Ok...Now I see the light! You were writing yesterday about not having any cap gains and been flat since 2014 in some funds. I thought this was a trade to "make up for lost time". That is why I was so negative toward your thoughts. I didn't realize this was just the ol gambling account. I have one of those too, but it is dedicated to sports betting. Im afraid if I did that with my investment money, there would be "leakage". :)


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
True story of what happened today follows.

I had been wanting to sell all the VTI (total US stock market) in a couple of IRAs because shares had been purchased in the past 30 days and they would interfere with some tax-loss harvesting of VTI that I wanted to do in a taxable account (see post #835: http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/lol-s-market-timing-newsletter-57042-42.html#post1679216).

I set up some limit orders to sell these positions. But I made a mistake: I wanted to sell at 97.23 and put in a limit order to do so, then got distracted.

I also forgot that a few days ago, I set up a couple of alerts to e-mail me if the price reached 97.21 because I was thinking a few days ago of selling, too. I think that was 1% or 2% above where VTI was trading a few days ago. Anyways, I forgot about the alerts, but they showed up today on my smart phone. So ...

I logged in to see how my limit order to sell was doing. It turns out it had not executed because I had transposed two digits and the limit was set for 97.32. Since VTI was trading in that range, I just changed the orders to be market orders and sold.

Then I was out the door to go running with the dog and have some lunch.

And you know the rest of the story: VTI closed 1.8% lower than what I sold it for.
 
I opened up positions today in my gambling account as follows:
Each position $2000 equivalent shares..

Ticker-company / price per share (long)

CHK - chesapeak 3.18
DVN - devon energy 25.63
FCX - freeport mcmoran 4.67
KMI - kinder morgan 14.99
PSX - Philips 66 78.85
SDRL - sea drill 2.05

So, in total a $12K bet on oil ... I chose this versus a commodities or oil ETF.... I dont know why, typically I would just play ERX 3x leveraged ETF but thought about this last week and talked myself out of it...so talked myself back into it over the weekend. Lets track this to "keep me honest"....

I'm not sure how long I'll keep the position open. I actually thought I would buy call options (which would lever my position) but decided to just stick with an overall long position for now.
 
I have not been putting in my trades... but for fun, I bought last week WMT, CPB and AEE approx $25k on each position. I'll try to be a bit more timely
 
papadad111 said:
I opened up positions today in my gambling account as follows:
Each position $2000 equivalent shares..

Ticker-company / price per share (long)

CHK - chesapeak 3.18
DVN - devon energy 25.63
FCX - freeport mcmoran 4.67
KMI - kinder morgan 14.99
PSX - Philips 66 78.85
SDRL - sea drill 2.05

So, in total a [-]$12K[/-] 20K bet on oil ... I chose this versus a commodities or oil ETF.... I dont know why, typically I would just play ERX 3x leveraged ETF but thought about this last week and talked myself out of it...so talked myself back into it over the weekend. Lets track this to "keep me honest"....

I'm not sure how long I'll keep the position open. I actually thought I would buy call options (which would lever my position) but decided to just stick with an overall long position for now.
Click to expand...

Added to DVN today, now 4K @25.25 avg price per share
Added to PSX today, now 4K @78.69 avg price per share
Opened ERX today, 4K at 17.05

Total investment : 20K. Down $570

Lets see how this plays out...... That's my new toy (car, motorcycle) mad money so here we go... !
 
added 200 AMLP @ 9.95

I'll hold my "oil bet" at this level for now $22K across 8 stocks in my gambling account. Lets see what happens by mid-April.

, plus a ton of VXUS in my long term account which continues to languish... has heavy global oil exposure (Shell, Petron, etc)...
 
papadad111 said:
added 200 AMLP @ 9.95

I'll hold my "oil bet" at this level for now $22K across 8 stocks in my gambling account. Lets see what happens by mid-April.

, plus a ton of VXUS in my long term account which continues to languish... has heavy global oil exposure (Shell, Petron, etc)...
Click to expand...


Admit it Papa, you are doing this to just have a little fun, and profits/losses are immaterial....What is life without a little gambling in ones life! :)


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
Yep. Mulligan. You are correct. It's the thrill of the chase. I took my "toy fund" money to see if I could parlay it

I look at it this way: I'll either be driving a new BMW or an old Ford Pinto as my next set of wheels. Either way, it gets me from A to B !

Cheers !
 
papadad111 said:
Value Play ? Strong dividend? What was the attraction to IP.... I dont follow it at all.
Click to expand...
I'm building a portfolio of dividend growth stocks. Had been watching IP for a while. It went past 5% yield and I wondered...then noticed it is -40% from yearly high.

I use FAST graphs to help me decide. For example, see the attached. Is the future really like that? I do not know, but am placing a bet on a company that promises to grow the dividend. We'll see.
 

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Good analysis. I concur on IP- looks interesting. Commodities and wood prices are down so input costs looks well contained. Also a cyclical and they are due for gains.

I just now I exited my oil. positions with a 2 day 5 % gain.

Freeport McMoran was up 20 percent today ... so I dumped it too.

Will assess in 2-3 days and see what happens.
 
papadad111 said:
Good analysis. I concur on IP- looks interesting. Commodities and wood prices are down so input costs looks well contained. Also a cyclical and they are due for gains.

I just now I exited my oil. positions with a 2 day 5 % gain.

Freeport McMoran was up 20 percent today ... so I dumped it too.

Will assess in 2-3 days and see what happens.
Click to expand...
I have FCX on energy watchlist. However, went with PBF, XOM, STO at various stages in the past 2 years. These are hold forever. Forever meaning a few years, then re-evaluate.
 
I just exited a short position on TSLA, was getting nervous whether I would make any money or not. This is my trading account.


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Fermion said:
This turned out to be a very timely buy. An announcement of a large insider purchase just a couple days after this buy and the stock has gone from $2.70 to $3.60. I am taking a bit of profit and leaving some on the table.
Click to expand...


Looks like a timely sell too. At this rate it might be back to $2.70 soon.
 
Looking to re-enter ERX and AMLP today for short term trade

ERX at 15 and 13
AMLP at 9 and 8.50

P.S. CHK down 40% today too.
 
kiki said:
Looks like a timely sell too. At this rate it might be back to $2.70 soon.
Click to expand...

Yes, thinking of reloading here soon. I am comfortable with it as long as they trade 50 million or so below cash on hand.
 
I bought a chunk of VXF (extended market index, so mid/small cap US stocks) a moment ago. I might buy some more later today.

Bond funds are not supposed to go up 0.5% in one day, so sold shares of BND and bought VNQ (REIT index, down 4% today).
 
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Fermion said:
Yes, thinking of reloading here soon. I am comfortable with it as long as they trade 50 million or so below cash on hand.
Click to expand...

Just bought back the 5000 shares I sold in the mid $3s for $2.79. Simply amazing. I know it is a risky biotech, but 170 million in cash and 120 million market cap with good results in current trials. Plenty of time on this one with no risk of bankruptcy in the next couple years. A lottery ticket with a lot of chances for a win. I am going to trade it though and will sell again in the mid $3s.
 
Thanks. Anyone watching Nordic American tankers. NAT. Heard a bit in power lunch and seemed credible. Chasing financials now to have a peek.
 
Bought some large-cap US (VV) this morning on the little drop after the market open.

It is worrisome that stocks go up 2% intraday, but the gains do not stick and they fall back in the last couple hours of trading. I would've made a lot of money if I had sold at those times.
 
LOL! said:
I bought a chunk of VXF (extended market index, so mid/small cap US stocks) a moment ago. I might buy some more later today.

Bond funds are not supposed to go up 0.5% in one day, so sold shares of BND and bought VNQ (REIT index, down 4% today).
Click to expand...
OK, I sold the VXF at a small gain and also noticed that the BND is selling lower than I sold it at. VNQ is trading about 0.5% lower than recent purchase price, so I will keep it for now.

Also sold earlier purchased IVV at a small loss since it overlaps with the VV I just purchased which is up. Call it tax-loss harvesting if you like.

And just posting this will probably make the market go up another 1%-2% before the close this week. :)

I basically do not want to have my asset allocation so overweighted to equities over the long weekend, though if they do drop over the next couple of hours, I may change my mind.

Update: I'm not the greatest market timer, but if my selling earlier today made the market go up, then I am happy. :)
 
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What a great day in the market.

I made no transactions today, but I am totally bummed by the sales I made last Friday. One might say I sold several thousand dollars to soon. Sigh!

A positive is that equities closed at their highest values of the day and did not fade in the last hour.
 
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