LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter

[LOL!]

I still can't decide if this is a spoof thread or not...

Am I missing something?

What makes you think this is a spoof thread?

 

[NW-Bound]

Dixonge spent too much time on the Bogleheads forum?

 

[Fedup]

In 2014, I was a multiple day trader. I was right on 98% of my trade. But I was getting distracting at work so I stopped. It was up almost 100% on a very small account. The best part was shorting a stock and the following day it went into bankruptcy, GTAT, IIRC. But the hellish part is to input thousands of trades into a Turbo Tax so I stopped. But doing very randomly now.


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[NW-Bound]

The tax computation burden is indeed awful. So, if I daytrade, would use a tax-deferred account. Even now, when I want to make a short-term trade, I would reach for one of my IRA accounts. No worry about wash sales either.

 

[dixonge]

What makes you think this is a spoof thread?

Because there's not a newsletter?

 

[MichaelB]

Because there's not a newsletter?

That depends on your definition of newsletter.

 

[Fermion]

I think for most of us this is just a fun side activity. I personally have never had more than $50k at risk...barely real money.

 

[dixonge]

Dixonge spent too much time on the Bogleheads forum?

I had them delete my account. Too much excitement.

 

[dixonge]

Anybody can be a day trader, as it takes only a few grand. Being a successful one is tougher.

I got bored. To ramp up the challenge, I now day-trade mutual funds.

 

[LOL!]

I think for most of us this is just a fun side activity. I personally have never had more than $50k at risk...barely real money.

For me, I am definitely using real money. I don't have "trading account." The trades I post are with a real portfolio and often more than $50K a pop. Otherwise, tax-loss harvesting would hardly be worth it.

 

[Fedup]

Mine is less than $50k. Any gain is going to my travel account.


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[Fermion]

For me, I am definitely using real money. I don't have "trading account." The trades I post are with a real portfolio and often more than $50K a pop. Otherwise, tax-loss harvesting would hardly be worth it.

Yeah but your trades are boring

Come talk to me when you have $50k of a biotech on the line, with an FDA announcement after hours and you don't know if it will be $150k or $10k the next day.

 

[LOL!]

Yeah but your trades are boring

Of course my trades are boring. That's the whole point of LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter: One can be patient, make some boring trades, and still make lots of money!

Why not start a "Fermion's Biotech Market Timing Non-boring Newsletter"?

Oh, full disclosure: I worked in biotech since the 1970s and still sit on some advisory panels. I don't need to invest in biotech stocks.

 

[NW-Bound]

I think for most of us this is just a fun side activity. I personally have never had more than $50k at risk...barely real money.

Outside of my I-bonds/Stable Value/Cash which is now 30% of portfolio, I consider the rest (stock+bond) as at risk. However, I may have up to 10% in "riskier" category, meaning highly volatile stocks or 2x or 3x leveraged ETFs, not the stodgy S&P.

For excitement, one does not need a big chunk of a leveraged EM or biotech ETF. A $1 bet counts as $3, and on a volatile stock at that, which can move 2x the S&P. And go short or long as the mood suits you. Never boring.

PS. Note that I do short-term trades in a tax-deferred account, so cannot sell short and must use a bear ETF to short.

 

[NW-Bound]

I had them delete my account. Too much excitement.

Never had an account there, and never made a post. Did not stay long either. When I paid them a visit, which was many years ago, they happened to have a fairly heated discussion. Some guys talked about stock picking, and man oh man, all hell broke loose over there. And you say they don't get excited? I have not been back since.

If I go over there and talk about not just picking stock but also doing leveraged ETFs and options, they will get all bent out of shape. Nah! I don't want to be trolling, even though I trade a lot less than even MF managers like Wellesley. You do not go into a place of worship and start badmouthing a religion. Not my style, and besides they will beat you black and blue.

 

[Fermion]

Outside of my I-bonds/Stable Value/Cash which is now 30% of portfolio, I consider the rest (stock+bond) as at risk. However, I may have up to 10% in "riskier" category, meaning highly volatile stocks or 2x or 3x leveraged ETFs, not the stodgy S&P.

For excitement, one does not need a big chunk of a leveraged EM or biotech ETF. A $1 bet counts as $3, and on a volatile stock at that, which can move 2x the S&P. And go short or long as the mood suits you. Never boring.

PS. Note that I do short-term trades in a tax-deferred account, so cannot sell short and must use a bear ETF to short.

Can't you buy puts or sell calls in such a way to be net short, even in a tax deferred account?

I know I did this in the past in my IRA. I did a bear call spread on Seadrill when it was $25 (but unfortunately I closed it out at $21 way early)

 

[NW-Bound]

They do not allow selling naked calls in my IRA, only covered calls. So I cannot be net short using calls.

I don't think I can buy a long put there, but have not checked.

 

[Ed_The_Gypsy]

I still can't decide if this is a spoof thread or not...

Am I missing something?

GOTCHA!

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[LOL!]

The overall portfolio performance has been above my benchmarks for the past few days and if foreign funds outperform US funds today, then the lead over benchmarks will increase. If it gets too far above the benchmarks, that means I should be selling equities. I haven't decided a number yet, but I don't want to be too greedy.

I need to sell about 10% of the total portfolio value out of equities and buy back into bonds in order to get back to my desired asset allocation. I probably will not move more than 2% to 3% of total portfolio value per day, so this will probably take a while.

I decided to start selling this morning. I sold some small-cap value (VBR) purchased back on 1/20 for a 12% gain.

I bought AGG (bond index) with some of the money.

 

[LOL!]

And VBR continues to climb, so I sold another tranche this afternoon.

And another tranche a couple minutes before the close.

 

[LOL!]

And VBR is up 2% from when I started selling yesterday. I'm cursed!

But I still have more to sell.

 

[papadad111]

Yes. This is more of a fun pastime than actual investment philosophy. All here seem to be boggle heads with 80-90 percent of assets ...

In my case, I have approx 100k aside the Bogle 2-fund portfolio and that is for gambling - day trading- etc.

I don't play poker nor bet on sports so this is my idea of risky fun ...

My typical positions are in the 25k to 50k range , sometimes as low as 5k-10k if doing options. Mostly buying calls.

I reserve another 25-50k in there on case I need to double down on a really bad bet ... I never touch outside funds for that activity.

Been totally neutral for the past few weeks ... No trades on ... Been busy doing other stuff.

 

[Fedup]

One of my stocks been moving up everyday since it was upgraded recently. I won't jinx it by mention it here.


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[Fermion]

Today was a good day with Gilead. I was able to buy 20 Jan 2017 $75 calls at the market open for $16.10, then I sold 10 of them for $17.15 about an hour later. As the price went up, I was able to sell short 10 August $90 calls at $5.85.

After the dust settled, I then have $1000 in my pocket plus a $75/$90 Jan/August diagonal which will be profitable even if Gilead stays flat for the summer or falls a bit.

If the stock remains flat, the profit will at minimum be 4.75/10.25 = 46% for the ~6 month period.

Now to lose it all in oil stocks like I did in 2014/2015

 

[NW-Bound]

Can't you buy puts or sell calls in such a way to be net short, even in a tax deferred account?

I know I did this in the past in my IRA. I did a bear call spread on Seadrill when it was $25 (but unfortunately I closed it out at $21 way early)

They do not allow selling naked calls in my IRA, only covered calls. So I cannot be net short using calls.

I don't think I can buy a long put there, but have not checked.

One thing I have been doing a bit lately is to bet that the market would not drop further, though it may not go up much (if you think it will go up, you buy the stock). So, I have been selling put on the S&P. As I do this in an IRA, they require me to have cash to back it up, which is OK since I have been holding quite a bit of cash. I figured that if the market dropped that low, it would force me to buy low and in the long run I will be OK.

So far, the market recovers, and if it holds till April, the options will be worthless and I will make a few $K. It's really not that great percentage wise, as that is the profit off the hundreds of $K cash that is sitting idle. A safe strategy just cannot make you boatloads of money. Every little bit helps, however.