Stock Picking ("Beat Boho") Contest

[Coolius]

Don't feel too bad. I dropped 8 places from yesterday!

My portfolio is a close parallel of what I have in real life - so actual money is being made and lost.

 

[almost there]

Yesterday I went from the middle, to 11, to 27th, to #1. Up 3 1/2% today.
TECS Triple / tech short.

 

[ERD50]

I don't know what you people are doing but I sold half my portfolio last night, all stock funds, and the market is down today yet I dropped two places.

Some of those people might be largely in funds that won't be priced until after the close. Things may change for them by the open tomorrow, or the contest may update after the close sometime tonight.

But tomorrow is not a year, or a lifetime!

-ERD50

 

[RetiredGypsy]

I had in mind the cyclist who stays in the back for 99% of the race then in a burst of energy sprints forward to catch the gold finish. But your analogy works!

I tried to find the video, but there was an old stock car or NASCAR race where first place fell halfway back the track just to show off and finish first.

 

[almost there]

Always wanted to do this. Might be fun, or upset some folks here. Made 3% today triple shorting tech, sold and just shorted a triple short tech fund. Ha Ha!

 

[Fermion]

I am really impressed with myself. I have managed to lose 12% in just a couple of days. I actually picked one of the very worst performing stocks.

Do you realize how hard that is? It is similar in difficulty to picking the best stock. Quite hard.

 

[almost there]

Fermion , give me the symbol. I might already own it.


Just so everyone knows, I will burn out fast. And probably be the big looser in the end. Using my current strategy..,.


Looking for a bounce tomorrow. Cover the reverse short, and short again.

 

[LOL!]

I don't know what you people are doing but I sold half my portfolio last night, all stock funds, and the market is down today yet I dropped two places.

How does selling at night work for the contest? Since markets aren't open at night, I hope the tracking software gives one the next price available which would be the open price the next day for stocks/ETFs and the closing price the next day for mutual funds. Is that what the software does?

So "… I sold half my portfolio last night, all stock funds, …" should mean you sold at the end of yesterday after the market dump.

 

[almost there]

Fun 2 days. Back in cash...... for "M"

 

[Totoro]

Do you realize how hard that is? It is similar in difficulty to picking the best stock. Quite hard.

In fact, you have a winning play here. Just start shorting whatever you'd long in. The Boson portfolio, if you will.

 

[easysurfer]

Nothing like a quick drop (Dow index down about 140 pts at open) today to test the investing strategy .

 

[Boho]

I already was 50% cash but I decided to buy Viacom. Half the time my strategy is complicated by something but I go ahead with it anyway. So far it's working. Got it for $44.40 and it immediately went up to $44.70 so I'm optimistic.

 

[Boho]

Sold at $44.70 and now it's $44.90 but I guess I should be glad. In real life I bought it for $44.50 and I'm holding it.

 

[ERD50]

Nothing like a quick drop (Dow index down about 140 pts at open) today to test the investing strategy .

Remember, some of the participants are all/mostly in funds which won't be re-priced until a while after the market closes.

Sold at $44.70 and now it's $44.90 but I guess I should be glad. In real life I bought it for $44.50 and I'm holding it.

Nice trade, I guess. But only ~ 0.68%, and a $5 fee? How much of your contest portfolio did this represent (that would be good to know, if you feel the urge to announce a trade)? Mmmmm, even if it was near half the portfolio, 1000 shares, that's still just 1000*$0.30 = $300 minus $5 = $295, and I'm guessing it was a smaller portion?

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

1 M (Profile: Trader1576002) ------------$104,144.09 +4.1%
2 Risp (Profile: Risp1576099) -----------$104,109.26 +4.1%
3 Wendall (Profile: Wendall1575867) ---$101,309.83 +1.3%

I'm curious what the first two investors are in.

They are miles (relatively) ahead of #4, @ 0.8% gain. I forgot who "M" was, and RISP only offered this:

Sounds fun! I've just created an account and placed my first orders. Expect me to burn through those 100K real quick - I'm a terrible stock picker.

Also not a big fan of the contest rules - why the 5$ minimum stock price and the limitation to those markets only? I wanted to bet half on SDRL and short some German energy companies with the rest.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

Remember, some of the participants are all/mostly in funds which won't be re-priced until a while after the market closes.



Nice trade, I guess. But only ~ 0.68%, and a $5 fee? How much of your contest portfolio did this represent (that would be good to know, if you feel the urge to announce a trade)? Mmmmm, even if it was near half the portfolio, 1000 shares, that's still just 1000*$0.30 = $300 minus $5 = $295, and I'm guessing it was a smaller portion?

-ERD50

A little less than half. "03/27/17 Sell VIA 1,014 44.7000 - 5.00 45,320.80" Your math's probably about right.

And in real life I just sold 63 shares at $45 so I made about $31.50 minus the fee. I still have most of my trading money in URBN waiting for the price to break $24.88 so I don't have to take a loss. But meanwhile I could have made more with VIA if I sold URBN to get trading cash.

 

[easysurfer]

Remember, some of the participants are all/mostly in funds which won't be re-priced until a while after the market closes.



Nice trade, I guess. But only ~ 0.68%, and a $5 fee? How much of your contest portfolio did this represent (that would be good to know, if you feel the urge to announce a trade)? Mmmmm, even if it was near half the portfolio, 1000 shares, that's still just 1000*$0.30 = $300 minus $5 = $295, and I'm guessing it was a smaller portion?

-ERD50

As long as the market doesn't go in one direction only for the year, the contest should serve as a good exercise seeing how well (or not well) folks try to navigate the ups and downs.

 

[ERD50]

As long as the market doesn't go in one direction only for the year, the contest should serve as a good exercise seeing how well (or not well) folks try to navigate the ups and downs.

Will we be able to get a chart at the end (or even before)? It would be kinda interesting to see how individuals did in any up/down cycles, or just volatility in general.

It's still very early, but somewhat interesting that the three at the bottom have had far worse losses than the three at the the top have had gains.

32 Freddy Lbm ----------- -5.2%
33 Moorebonds ----------- -10.3%
34 Fermion ---------------- -15.0%

-ERD50

 

[Totoro]

Also interesting, just sitting in cash puts one in the top third!

Which is incidentally what Enginerd and Camellia are likely doing?

 

[easysurfer]

Will we be able to get a chart at the end (or even before)? It would be kinda interesting to see how individuals did in any up/down cycles, or just volatility in general.

It's still very early, but somewhat interesting that the three at the bottom have had far worse losses than the three at the the top have had gains.

32 Freddy Lbm ----------- -5.2%
33 Moorebonds ----------- -10.3%
34 Fermion ---------------- -15.0%

-ERD50

Just guessing, but I take "accounts viewable" at end of contest as a the history of trades. As for a chart, that I don't know.

 

[Boho]

I think you just get to see everyone's account summary.

When this contest is about up I may look into a different contest website. SimVest doesn't seem very popular and it's buggy and their forum is full of spam. I just hope it sticks around for the entire year.

 

[easysurfer]

I think you just get to see everyone's account summary.

When this contest is about up I may look into a different contest website. SimVest doesn't seem very popular and it's buggy and their forum is full of spam. I just hope it sticks around for the entire year.

Would be interesting to see what other contest sites you find. I'm sure there are others to choose from that work better than SimVest.

That said, I am having fun with this contest at SimVest besides the hiccups.

 

[ERD50]

Also interesting, just sitting in cash puts one in the top third!

Which is incidentally what Enginerd and Camellia are likely doing?

Yep, and long term, we know that's not a winning strategy. These short term results are interesting but pretty meaningless.

-ERD50

 

[RISP]

1 M (Profile: Trader1576002) ------------$104,144.09 +4.1%
2 Risp (Profile: Risp1576099) -----------$104,109.26 +4.1%
3 Wendall (Profile: Wendall1575867) ---$101,309.83 +1.3%

I'm curious what the first two investors are in.

They are miles (relatively) ahead of #4, @ 0.8% gain. I forgot who "M" was, and RISP only offered this:

-ERD50

I fell back quite a bit since you posted that yesterday (currently +2.8%), but I'm still in 2nd place, so I'll gladly share my winning strategy.

Since I'm currently reading Benjamin Graham's "The Intelligen Investor", I wanted to try a little value play. Using the Yahoo stock screener, I filtered for companies that could be bought way under book value, with manageable debt (especially short term) and a reasonable P/E ratio. I don't even remember the exact settings, and I did no research what so ever. I just tightened the requirements until I ended up with just four stocks. Then I bought those in equal quantities of about 25,000$: BXC (+1.6%), CCO (+0.9%), HCA (+7.8%), and MIK (+1.2%). No idea what they are or what they do.

Now I hope they quickly crash, or otherwise I might convince myself that I'm a good stock picker.

 

[Lawrencewendall]

1 M (Profile: Trader1576002) ------------$104,144.09 +4.1%
2 Risp (Profile: Risp1576099) -----------$104,109.26 +4.1%
3 Wendall (Profile: Wendall1575867) ---$101,309.83 +1.3%

I'm curious what the first two investors are in.

They are miles (relatively) ahead of #4, @ 0.8% gain. I forgot who "M" was, and RISP only offered this:



-ERD50

Got me some cash from dividends to put back in!