Blow that Dough! - 2018

[Mdlerth]

WARNING: Math ahead! Proceed at your own risk!

This probably doesn't fit perfectly into the spirit of this thread, but there definitely are times when it feels like I'm doing nothing but shoveling benjamins into the fireplace. I am over 20 g's lighter in only three months.

However, it's not because I've converted to the Church of RobbieB. It has more to do with the clustering of lumpy expenditures.

I've noticed a pattern emerge at Casa Mdlerth over these thirty-odd years: costwise, it never rains until it pours. We can go skipping merrily along for six months or a year during which nobody gets sick and nothing breaks or wears out. No big surprise bills. It lasts just long enough to create a false sense of LBYM. "Look at us saving money like crazy! How frugal we are! ER, here we come!"

Then - WHAM! - a barrage of irregular expenses falls on us like so many Acme safes. The heat pump fries itself. Next week the ancient Jeep bursts its radiator. Then DW's car has to get new tires to pass state inspection. Then one of the kids needs braces. Then the old fridge gives up the ghost. Et cetera...

Let me geek out for a brief moment. In statistics class they taught us about Poisson events: discrete, countable variables such as lightning strikes or celebrity deaths (which differ from continuous variables like temperature or the S&P) separated by intervals. The intervals between Poisson events follow a predictable distribution (the Exponential), with some long intervals and some shorter ones. Obviously, when we encounter some of these events separated by short intervals, they will appear to be coming in clusters, i.e., Fate is slamming us with "a run of bad luck".

In reality, though, it's not luck at all. It's just the way the universe works. There are stretches where you don't have to spend much, and other stretches where you get pelted with expenses. 2017 was a pretty mild year for us up through November, but since Christmas we've been beset with nonrecurring costs: birthdays, tires, appliances, veterinarian, new computer, new door, bat infestation, a few short vacation trips, show tickets... I can't wait to STOP blowing the dough!

 

[REWahoo]

... the clustering of lumpy expenditures.

Doncha just hate it when that happens?

EDIT: I sure hope this was an oversight:

... since Christmas we've been beset with nonrecurring costs: birthdays...

 

[aja8888]

This probably doesn't fit perfectly into the spirit of this thread, but there definitely are times when it feels like I'm doing nothing but shoveling benjamins into the fireplace. I am over 20 g's lighter in only three months.

However, it's not because I've converted to the Church of RobbieB. It has more to do with the clustering of lumpy expenditures.

I've noticed a pattern emerge at Casa Mdlerth over these thirty-odd years: costwise, it never rains until it pours. We can go skipping merrily along for six months or a year during which nobody gets sick and nothing breaks or wears out. No big surprise bills. It lasts just long enough to create a false sense of LBYM. "Look at us saving money like crazy! How frugal we are! ER, here we come!"

Then - WHAM! - a barrage of irregular expenses falls on us like so many Acme safes. The heat pump fries itself. Next week the ancient Jeep bursts its radiator. Then DW's car has to get new tires to pass state inspection. Then one of the kids needs braces. Then the old fridge gives up the ghost. Et cetera...

Let me geek out for a brief moment. In statistics class they taught us about Poisson events: discrete, countable variables such as lightning strikes or celebrity deaths (which differ from continuous variables like temperature or the S&P) separated by intervals. The intervals between Poisson events follow a predictable distribution (the Exponential), with some long intervals and some shorter ones. Obviously, when we encounter some of these events separated by short intervals, they will appear to be coming in clusters, i.e., Fate is slamming us with "a run of bad luck".

In reality, though, it's not luck at all. It's just the way the universe works. There are stretches where you don't have to spend much, and other stretches where you get pelted with expenses. 2017 was a pretty mild year for us up through November, but since Christmas we've been beset with nonrecurring costs: birthdays, tires, appliances, veterinarian, new computer, new door, bat infestation, a few short vacation trips, show tickets... I can't wait to STOP blowing the dough!

Yeah, lots of "what the heck?" stuff there, and the ink is still drying on our check for the new furnace expense .

Now we are into the home stretch on DD's wedding and are writing a bunch of checks. But that was planned for. Tires? Hey, car maintenance is something one should not be surprised about. But I understand the timing aspect of it can run up on you.

 

[Mdlerth]

Oops!

EDIT: I sure hope this was an oversight:

since Christmas we've been beset with nonrecurring costs: birthdays,

Wowzers, that reads pretty awkwardly, doesn't it? Well, you know what I meant... those spending events that, unlike the electric bill and the grocery tab, don't happen every month.

Sorry about that! Maybe I need to run my posts by an editor first? Yet another way to blow that dough!

 

[REWahoo]

Maybe I need to run my posts by an editor first?

No need. Half the fun of this forum is kidding around regarding the "oops" folks post - and I have more than my fair share!

 

[kcowan]

We just completed $110,000 pesos of unexpected expense caused by a new unfriendly neighbour exerting her ownership rights.

OTOH those pesos would have been closer to $ NOTB! But there was the unplanned disruption to our snowbird lives as well.

 

[audreyh1]

This probably doesn't fit perfectly into the spirit of this thread, but there definitely are times when it feels like I'm doing nothing but shoveling benjamins into the fireplace. I am over 20 g's lighter in only three months.

However, it's not because I've converted to the Church of RobbieB. It has more to do with the clustering of lumpy expenditures.

I've noticed a pattern emerge at Casa Mdlerth over these thirty-odd years: costwise, it never rains until it pours. We can go skipping merrily along for six months or a year during which nobody gets sick and nothing breaks or wears out. No big surprise bills. It lasts just long enough to create a false sense of LBYM. "Look at us saving money like crazy! How frugal we are! ER, here we come!"

Then - WHAM! - a barrage of irregular expenses falls on us like so many Acme safes. The heat pump fries itself. Next week the ancient Jeep bursts its radiator. Then DW's car has to get new tires to pass state inspection. Then one of the kids needs braces. Then the old fridge gives up the ghost. Et cetera...

Let me geek out for a brief moment. In statistics class they taught us about Poisson events: discrete, countable variables such as lightning strikes or celebrity deaths (which differ from continuous variables like temperature or the S&P) separated by intervals. The intervals between Poisson events follow a predictable distribution (the Exponential), with some long intervals and some shorter ones. Obviously, when we encounter some of these events separated by short intervals, they will appear to be coming in clusters, i.e., Fate is slamming us with "a run of bad luck".

In reality, though, it's not luck at all. It's just the way the universe works. There are stretches where you don't have to spend much, and other stretches where you get pelted with expenses. 2017 was a pretty mild year for us up through November, but since Christmas we've been beset with nonrecurring costs: birthdays, tires, appliances, veterinarian, new computer, new door, bat infestation, a few short vacation trips, show tickets... I can't wait to STOP blowing the dough!

One (of many) reasons I don’t reinvest unspent funds in a given year. You never know when you might need it the next year!

Just because you come in under budget in one year doesn’t mean you’ll continue under budget the next.

Those aren’t Benjamins thrown in the fireplace. That’s life! Especially with kids!

 

[Dtail]

One (of many) reasons I don’t reinvest unspent funds in a given year. You never know when you might need it the next year!

Just because you come in under budget in one year doesn’t mean you’ll continue under budget the next.

Those aren’t Benjamins thrown in the fireplace. That’s life! Especially with kids!

+1 strongly agree. Plan to withdraw a set x% and keep unspent funds in a CD type account to potentially supplement a down year.

 

[RockyMtn]

Are there some extra zeros on that number, if not you should have a Heck of a birthday celebration...

oops...make that $4k!

 

[RobbieB]

My contractor stopped by to collect eleven hundred to finish up my front patio.

 

[Dreamer]

Am just checking in...........after seeing that my last post was on 12/26/16.

That's because 2017 brought a wonderful new adventure: meeting and marrying Spouse #2. Back in 2015, when my first husband passed away, many of you were so kind with your support and condolences.

Then, last year-- truly out of the blue-- I met a delightful widower whose story had many parallels to my own: my first husband had braved a debilitating illness for the last 30 years of our 35-year marriage. My "new friend" (now husband) had faithfully taken care of his wife of 46 years while she suffered with cancer off and on during the last 20 years of their marriage.

But the similarities only began there. It has been a lovely story.

But, anyway, when we decided to marry in Nov. '17, he kindly and patiently went along with my desire for a nice, big fat celebration (that is, by my frugal standards). Not a mega-wedding so popular with today's 20-somethings. But a pretty church wedding with lots of flowers, friends, family, and fabulous music; followed by a nice catered dinner in a historic schoolhouse (circa 1900) in the middle of the Cuyahoga Valley National Park. (I am a retired teacher, and new husband's mom taught for 40+ years in a one-room school.)

The day cost much more than the cake and punch reception at my first wedding back in '79. While Hubby #2 and I shared the cost of this party, I added goodies along the way that I just wanted to have, simply because...... (So my part cost about $7,500.......major "big bucks" for this veteran LBYM-er.) But it all was soooooooooo worth it, both for fun and for beauty.

It was a happy family and friend celebration, enjoyed by all. And we are both confident our late spouses would have enjoyed our choice of each other......and would have loved the day as well.

Great joy in "blowing that dough!!

I am just coming back from a cruise and read this wonderful news. Congratulations on finding a new love. I wish you both the best.

 

[W2R]

My contractor stopped by to collect eleven hundred to finish up my front patio.

Really, that doesn't sound that bad. Well I guess it depends on how much he already charged! But for a patio that seems reasonable. You will enjoy the patio for years.

Uncle Sam and Louisiana just extracted more than twice that much (more) from me yesterday for my 2017 income taxes. I always send quarterly estimated tax payments but they were too low this time. OOPS I guess they will let me know if I need to pay a fine or interest or whatever to compensate for my goof. Hopefully I will think of something fun to spend that much on, in the spirit of "blow that dough".

 

[HadEnuff]

I'm in Kona, Hawaii, and I just spent $7.00....on a donut.
It was a good donut, but not that good...Aloha

 

[kevdude]

I'm in Kona, Hawaii, and I just spent $7.00....on a donut.

It was a good donut, but not that good...Aloha

That’s much better than the donut I’m thinking about buying in Seattle, even if it’s only $1.00 and a hostess donut...

 

[Winemaker]

I'm in Kona, Hawaii, and I just spent $7.00....on a donut.
It was a good donut, but not that good...Aloha

But you can get a $1.00 cup of Kona coffee. My $1.00 donut here tastes great with my $7.00 cup of Kona coffee!

 

[HadEnuff]

I should have suspected something was up, as there were no prices posted anywhere in the store. And I must admit, I haven't been hungry since I ate it. I'm just lucky DW didn't want one. $14 for two would have really stung me.

 

[TimeMeasure]

Let me geek out for a brief moment. In statistics class they taught us about Poisson events: discrete, countable variables such as lightning strikes or celebrity deaths (which differ from continuous variables like temperature or the S&P) separated by intervals. The intervals between Poisson events follow a predictable distribution (the Exponential), with some long intervals and some shorter ones. Obviously, when we encounter some of these events separated by short intervals, they will appear to be coming in clusters, i.e., Fate is slamming us with "a run of bad luck".

Always enjoy your interesting and erudite posts. Almost enough to make one look forward to the next spike in the run rate, just to be able to invoke the spirit of Poisson.

Seriously, though, interesting. Hadn’t thought about the different probability distributions in awhile, and how they manifest in daily life.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

2 New Pairs of Glasses for me and 1 for DW From Costco........ $700+ What is it about Costco? We cannot get out of there for less than $500 any time....... Shhhhhhh.

 

[kcowan]

My contractor stopped by to collect eleven hundred to finish up my front patio.

My contractor stopped by to get the final installment on our 110,000 pesos renovation to our snowbird place. So nice to have our place back to ourselves.

 

[Meadbh]

My contractor stopped by to get the final installment on our 110,000 pesos renovation to our snowbird place. So nice to have our place back to ourselves.

You mean $6807.25 CDN, or $5363.35 US?
Not bad for a reno that required you to move out!

 

[kcowan]

Yes I should have mentioned the resort that we escaped to. C$589/night!

We use local currency for all our expenses.

 

[W2R]

Right now I have a wonderful view of my back yard through the French doors that are about 15 feet in front of my easy chair. So, it's as though I had a patio with part of it being air conditioned. If I wanted to get out of the air conditioning into the 83F heat with 72% humidity (current conditions), I could just open the French doors. But I'd rather not..... I might feel differently if I lived where Robbie or kcowan live.

ShokWaveRider, my glasses used to cost hundreds of dollars like that, too, though Costco may be one of the better bricks'n'mortar retailers for purchasing glasses. Luckily, since my cataract surgery the only glasses I need are readers; I guess that's one of the very few advantages of getting old. Readers cost only $10 for 3 pairs on Amazon. But I remember those pricey glasses! My last pair cost me $500 since I got them at Lenscrafters (which is such a rip-off but they had the frames I wanted). Couldn't even afford prescription sunglasses back then. But no more expensive glasses for me and I don't long for prescription sunglasses any more. Now, I have a fabulous pair of non-prescription Ray-Bans that make me feel like a movie star and completely cut out all that glare on sunny days.

 

[Scuba]

Dear ivnsfan, W2R, and scuba,



Yes, this new adventure has been a gift I never anticipated. DH#2 and I found that we bring as much joy to each other as did our first spouses. Plus, we have a unique appreciation for good health, so hope to use our remaining years to enjoy it for as long as possible.



Since neither of us had ever spent over $7,500 on a party, it did feel like a fun and extravagant day to us both..........(but then, of course, it was not a car or a "thing" we could enjoy on a shelf.....)



But we already have stuff. Instead, DH#2 has been my surprise of the decade! The situation deserved a major party. And all who attended seemed to agree!



Thanks for your kind wishes!!

Definitely deserving of a major party! Wish you continued happiness and good health!!

 

[Scuba]

Last weekend I spent $2.99 to download some beautiful new jigsaw puzzles for my iPad jigsaw puzzle program. They are providing me with hours of fun! I listen to free podcasts to occupy my mind while doing them. The puzzles are all photos of colorful birds.



I don't know what the rest of you like to do in retirement, but to me, this sure beats other forms of couch potato activity.

W2R, I’m so glad I saw your puzzle app suggestion. I like to do something on my iPad to wind down at night before I go to sleep. Online puzzles are PERFECT for me. Thanks for the tip!

 

[W2R]

W2R, I’m so glad I saw your puzzle app suggestion. I like to do something on my iPad to wind down at night before I go to sleep. Online puzzles are PERFECT for me. Thanks for the tip!

They are such fun, for me! Glad they are working out for you too.

I also like doing a couple of sudokus just before going to bed, because I like numbers and dreaming about numbers. But jigsaw puzzles can keep me happily busy for most of the evening.