ACA Rate Increases For 2019

[scrabbler1]

Have any of you on ACA plans received letters from your insurance companies regarding proposed rate increases for 2019? I got mine a few days ago and my IC is proposing a nearly 30% increase in my premium for 2019 to over $700 per month (one person, not a couple). This follows a 17% increase for 2018. My ACA premium subsidy is small, and will drop to zero in 2018 if I go over the ACA "cliff" like I did for the first time last year. So I am not relying on that to save me. Also, I have to depend on the SLCSP (Second Lowest Cost Silver Plan) rate to rise a lot in order to enable the subsidy to rise.

https://www.dfs.ny.gov/about/press/pr1806011.htm

The chart shown in the above link to the NY DFS website includes how much of the filed increases are due to the repeal of the individual mandate. On an aggregate basis, the repeal of the IM causes half the overall average filed increase.

I wonder how bad things are in other states, such as yours.

 

[pb4uski]

My carrier proposed a 1.2% increase for my plan. You can always move... we're not that far away and long-johns are inexpensive.

http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f38/proposed-2019-health-insurance-increases-92057.html

 

[kimcdougc]

Haven't received anything yet. I hope it won't go up that much. I already pay $1680 per month for DH and myself.

 

[jim584672]

scrabbler1, Any way to get your MAGI down? 200 FPL ($24,120) or lower, you can get plans for $20 a month.

 

[pb4uski]

.....The chart shown in the above link to the NY DFS website includes how much of the filed increases are due to the repeal of the individual mandate. On an aggregate basis, the repeal of the IM causes half the overall average filed increase. ...

I'm really skeptical that the individual mandate will have such a significant impact. That suggests that a lot of people were buying health insurance only because of the mandate... rather than paying the penalty... given that the penalties were so modest compared to the premiums for a year I am very skeptical that is the case. If I am right then they will be handing out big premium refunds in 2020 because of the minimum loss ratio requirements.

 

[scrabbler1]

scrabbler1, Any way to get your MAGI down? 200 FPL ($24,120) or lower, you can get plans for $20 a month.

I had an unexpectedly huge cap gain distribution in late December last year which greatly exceeded the $13k max I needed to retain my ACA subsidy. It ended up being a $23k distribution. My monthly and quarterly dividends add up to about $31k per year, enough to cover my bills with a decent cushion left over. That's the backbone of my ER plan.

 

[jim584672]

I had an unexpectedly huge cap gain distribution in late December last year which greatly exceeded the $13k max I needed to retain my ACA subsidy. It ended up being a $23k distribution. My monthly and quarterly dividends add up to about $31k per year, enough to cover my bills with a decent cushion left over. That's the backbone of my ER plan.

Those year end distributions can really screw things up.

Put everything in FANG stocks and BRK-B for low dividends. It will either work really well or disastrously.

 

[MRG]

Yesterday I reviewed a letter from Anthem. While I didn't read it closely the bulk of it was a spreadsheet comparing 2017-2018 YTD. Much to my surprise their numbers look really bad for 2018. Profits are way down.

 

[Dtail]

No info for me yet in FLA.

 

[jesaco]

Premiums for me and DW from $1,020 to $1,475 or about a 45% proposed increase for 2019. New York State Fidelis insurance.
BTW, Fidelis just got acquired by Centene, a much bigger player. this is crazy..

 

[joeea]

Have any of you on ACA plans received letters from your insurance companies regarding proposed rate increases for 2019?

No, I haven't received such a letter.

 

[BrianB]

No specific numbers finalized yet, but the St. Paul Pioneer Press reported on 6/15:

"The Minnesota Commerce Department released proposed insurance rates for 2019 on Friday. The rates are subject to state review and could change.

Individual market rates are projected to fall between 7 percent and 12 percent, the department said. Employers with two to 50 people could see anywhere from a 3 percent decline to a nearly 12 percent increase in costs."

I will remain cautiously optimistic.

 

[wmc1000]

Indiana average increase requested for 2019 is 5.1% https://www.in.gov/idoi/files/Indiana 2019 ACA Filings.pdf

 

[USGrant1962]

In MD the only PPO plan has asked for a 91.4% increase. The HMO plans have asked for an average of 25.6%.

That's after the PPO went up 62% and HMOs up about 40% in 2018.

Note that CareFirst's filing regarding the 91.5% increase does not even mention the individual mandate. From what I've seen reported, that is expected to add only 5% to rates.

In MD you can follow the rate review process here: http://www.healthrates.mdinsurance.state.md.us/Default.aspx

 

[Splash]

I haven't seen anything yet. Waiting on pins and needles.

Our only ACA choice available to us for 2018 was a regional co-operative. They offered a few in-network only plans, no bronze or HSA plans. Their rates increased 63% from 2017. That was bad enough but some pretty reliable sources say they will be pulling out of the exchange after 2018.

Looks like it will be a bumpy ride until Medicare eligible in 9 years.

 

[scrabbler1]

I'm really skeptical that the individual mandate will have such a significant impact. That suggests that a lot of people were buying health insurance only because of the mandate... rather than paying the penalty... given that the penalties were so modest compared to the premiums for a year I am very skeptical that is the case. If I am right then they will be handing out big premium refunds in 2020 because of the minimum loss ratio requirements.

It would be interesting to know how an insurance company's book of business changed in 2014 after the exchanges came in and the IM went into force. Furthermore, how many new customers did they add who were receiving no ACA subsidy, or perhaps a small one like myself. If those customers are still young and/or healthy now, they are the most likely ones to drop coverage.

Another thing to consider is if the state, like yours and mine, ban age rating. This boosts the rates for younger people while lowering it for older people, also encouraging younger people to drop coverage. This could make the effect of repealing the IM more pronounced in New York, already a HCOL, than in other states.

That being said, some states have or are considering enacting their own IMs like what MA had prior to the ACA. Unfortunately, I haven't heard about NY doing this, and their legislative session just ended for the year.

I hope the effect of the repeal of the IM is a one-time thing, not the start of some death spiral where the higher rates cause more people to drop coverage which causes higher rates which causes more people to drop coverage...…..

 

[MichaelB]

The Sun Sentinel reported this morning teh three major insurers have all filed for 2019 South Florida's 3 Obamacare providers file proposals to return in 2019 - Sun Sentinel

In all, rate increases proposed by eightcompanies offering ACA-compliant plans on and off of the exchange, average 8.8 percent, according to a news release by the state office late Friday afternoon.

 

[BeachOrCity]

Every year it is the same drill. Late spring rate filings with huge percentage increases. Negotiations over the summer followed by final rates in the fall which are lower than requested (but still large increases).

Best to figure out your plan when final rates are actually available and you can determine best course of action. Otherwise you will infuse your otherwise lovely summer with undue stress and worry about something you cannot control.

 

[gstillson]

If you were to get really close to the cliff, place a huge bet on some options that expire in Dec 2018. Either they pay off and you go way over the cliff or they expire worthless and the loss puts you under the cliff.

This would be if something like $1000 in gain would cause you to owe $2000 in subsidy. So you want either a $1000 loss or a more than $2000 gain.

 

[Popeye]

News reports for Pennsylvania said about 4.9% increase. They also said the number of counties with only one plan was coming down. But they did not give county specific details yet.

 

[scrabbler1]

Every year it is the same drill. Late spring rate filings with huge percentage increases. Negotiations over the summer followed by final rates in the fall which are lower than requested (but still large increases).

Best to figure out your plan when final rates are actually available and you can determine best course of action. Otherwise you will infuse your otherwise lovely summer with undue stress and worry about something you cannot control.

I agree with your second paragraph. But in the 10 years I have been buying my own HI and have received these midyear letters, sometimes the final rate increase ends up lower, and sometimes the rate increase ends being just what that letter said it would be. There is no "always lower" rule. At best, it's 50-50 the rate increase gets reduced.

 

[Dtail]

The Sun Sentinel reported this morning teh three major insurers have all filed for 2019 South Florida's 3 Obamacare providers file proposals to return in 2019 - Sun Sentinel

When they post these estimated increases, are they theoretically the same net increases for subsidized and non subsidized users?
If it goes up too much, I will manage my income even lower but stay above the minimum.

 

[Mr._Graybeard]

When they post these estimated increases, are they theoretically the same net increases for subsidized and non subsidized users?

The premiums have been the same for subsidized and non-subsidized, IME, but subsidies have increased with the premiums. Since the subsidies are based on the second-cheapest Silver plan and we always have chosen an HSA-eligible Bronze plan, our premiums after subsidy have fallen consistently every year. That is with a MAGI around $50k

 

[Dtail]

The premiums have been the same for subsidized and non-subsidized, IME, but subsidies have increased with the premiums. Since the subsidies are based on the second-cheapest Silver plan and we always have chosen an HSA-eligible Bronze plan, our premiums after subsidy have fallen consistently every year. That is with a MAGI around $50k

Thanks. Just moved to FLA last year and went from single to single with dependent for medical, so don't have any point of comparison yet.
Because I have a sig other on Medicare plus enough cash, I have reasonable leeway to manage the income side.

 

[NoMoreJob]

Just FYI Kaiser Family Foundation article I ran across with increase info. that will be update as more information comes in......

https://www.kff.org/private-insurance/issue-brief/tracking-2019-premium-changes-on-aca-exchanges/