Thoughts on TESLA

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Does this auto meet all USA safety standards? That's a biggie that many overlook when comparing prices of cars in places like India and China with the USA.

But for China sales, does it matter (competition-wise)?

It would matter for US sales, but then, they need to meet the standards - seems like a moot point.

edit/add:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/24/tesla-cuts-model-3-prices-in-china-.html
The starting price for a Model 3 in China now is 499,000 yuan ($72,000).


Compared with ~ $12K for an admittedly lesser vehicle (but $12K vs $72K opens up a market) :

... the lowest price EV that BYD is selling in China, and saw this BYD Yuan EV.

Not in the same class as the Tesla Model 3, but nor is its price: 80,000 yuan or US$12K. Range is 305km or 190mi.

See: BYD Yuan EV360 goes on sale with price starting from RMB 79,900


-ERD50
 
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Good points ERD50. I believe there is a lot of speculation that future growth for Tesla will come from China. With a per capita GDP that's $8,800 vs us of $59,500, could be a case of champagne taste on a beer budget. People just don't have the $$$ to by high-end products, especially US, and will then look for alternative products that meet their budget. At face value the BYD seems to be a good alternative. Similar fate then as AAPL now faces?
 
IMHO, the extended life we are seeing in modern automobiles of all types is another plus in the war against pollution and waste. Like many of you I remember the times when a car turning 100,000 miles was a big deal. Also the time they added the extra digit for hundred-thousands to the odometer.

A recent article I read indicated that most EV batteries still hold about 90% of their original capacity well after 160,000 miles. But, we must take into account that EV and hybrid cars do not use all their capacity, but have a reserve on the high and low ends. The reserve helps keep the charging/discharging activity in an area that causes very little stress to the battery. As the battery gets older the reserve shrinks to fill in the 'gaps'. But, if the car still runs well at 200,000 miles what does it matter how they do it? I doubt if most Prius and Telsa drivers with well over 150,000 miles on the car care that much as long as the system works and does not prematurely end the useful life of the vehicle.

See below for an interesting discussion on battery tech:

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/08/26/the-secret-life-of-an-ev-battery/

Thanks, that was interesting. I have been surprised at the reports of how well the batteries are holding up. The Leaf had its problems though, and I thought this was all due to heat, but maybe Leaf also does (or did) not have as much reserve capacity? Maybe both?

I recall when first learning about how the EV designers needed to be conservative on the "full" and "empty" charge levels, I wondered - so what does it really mean to have an 80 kWh battery? So it does seem to mean that it actually will charge/discharge that amount between indicated "full"/"empty", but the actual battery is significantly larger. So when they talk about getting to $100/kWh, is that 'indicated' kWh, or the larger amount with reserve?

It seems surprising that no mfg admitted to this. It makes perfect sense and would be wasteful to not do it. You keep it in reserve to go easy on the battery to extend life, but when you are running out, why the heck wouldn't you tap into that reserve? Sure, you are going to see it drop faster as you do that, but what would you save it for?

-ERD50
 
a) Not sure if the global view makes good sense if you look at where the population of people are at compared to where various car companies sell cars.
ie. how many China or India cars are sold in the USA?

Depends on the question you want to answer I guess. Mine comes from the question what kind of sustainable lead (technology or manufacturing wise) Tesla has vs. others in EV.

If you look at only the american producers they are in a very good position, five maybe 10 years ahead? If you look at others, it's a bit fuzzier, looks more like two to three years, and only on the EV drive train + battery part. On (interior) quality and finish the Europeans are still ahead, reliability typically is where the Asia excels (Kia & Nissan specifically). Neither seem to be strong points for Tesla at this point.

Asian and European producers can enter the USA market (as they've done in the past). It's very much a race, and I don't know who will turn the winner, or if there will be winners at all (in profitability terms).
 
My apologies, I missed that context. You are correct, it appears that Supercharger energy rates are marked up well above their cost to Tesla at its charging stations. Markups of 100% and higher. I presume this is to recoup the cost of building and maintaining the charging stations. Otherwise they would (will) be a nice profit center.

Apology accepted. I know this thread is long and there are multiple discussions going on, but that one did have me frustrated because several people kept diverting from a very basic statement that eroscott made:

This was in reply to eroscott's post #1701, where aja8888 was asking about the costs to charge at a Supercharger.
eroscott replied "At least 1/2 - 1/4 the cost of gas."

By the time you came along, I was frustrated that people were not keeping on track, and talking about a bunch of other measurements. Sorry if I was a bit gruff. But the fact is, picking IL, where I live (not cherry picking), per mile Supercharger costs are about the same as gas for a 25 mpg vehicle. Will eroscott acknowledge he was wrong? By a factor of 2x to 4x? I guess he has me on ignore, maybe he doesn't like arithmetic either?

Good to get that context. So, you do not dispute that EVs get at least 2.5 times the mileage over gas cars for the same amount of money?

Edit: When not using a supercharger.

I never disputed that home charging is less expensive per mile than gas for an ICE, so why do you ask?

Here's a question for you. Can you actually come out and admit that some of the claims from the EV fans here are just plain wrong? See how in your post above, you don't actually come out and say it, you divert to the at home charging costs. You'd have more credibility if you'd admit when you are wrong.

In fact, I discussed home charging a while back, let's see.... back in post #1631. And guess what, it was in response to another extreme claim (w/o any numbers/reference to back it up), from eroscott, who said: " you are using 'fuel' from the electrical grid which is 4 to 6 times cheaper than gas. "

So I ran numbers in that post, for myself, here in IL. And there is a 2.3:1 ballpark cost ratio in favor of EV over a 30 mpg ICE/hybrid. A 40 mpg hybrid brings the ratio to ~ 1.7:1. That is not the "4 to 6 times cheaper than gas" that eroscott claims.

I think there was some follow up, that if EVs expand the way some of you expect, they will need to pay the current road tax rates that other cars do, so that ratio gets even tighter. Even more so if EV electric demand drives kWh prices up, and gas prices go down with lower demand.

Now, can people see where some frustration comes into play? Some of the Tesla/EV fans spit out numbers/claims, do not provide the analysis and when challenged with numbers, they seem to just change the topic or the context. It gets frustrating. Are we here to learn something, or just be cheerleaders? If it is to be cheerleaders, you can stop now, we get it.

-ERD50
 
The tax credits are not intended to help"rich guys". ... .
I cannot determine what the "intent" is. But the facts are, much/most of the tax credits have helped rich guys buy expensive cars that the middle class tax payer cannot afford. It isn't hard to understand that can cause some resentment from those middle class tax payers.

... The governments of the world are implementing ways to eliminate ICE cars and transition to EV's (or whatever technology comes next). This is because ICE cars pollute the earth. ...

And so do EVs. The delta in pollution is small, and might even be in favor of the better hybrids. I've discussed this before, I won't rehash it all, but the fact is that we don't have an excess of RE on the grids, so the extra demand for charging an EV fleet will be coming mostly from fossil fuel on most US grids, for the foreseeable future. There are better ways to reduce pollution.

...
I read that 2000 environmentalists had a meeting in Poland recently. ... they came up with a list of things governments need to do, with eliminating ICE cars right near the top of the list. ....

Sure, because self proclaimed 'environmentalists' hate the ICE. They also hated nukes, which meant we had much more coal and much more pollution than we would have had otherwise. If we had gone nuclear, EVs might be a clear pollution advantage over the modern ICE/hybrid. But we don't, so EVs run mostly on fossil fuel. You can thank 'environmentalists' for that.

... Now if you don't want to accept what the governments are offering you to purchase an EV, then don't do it, and stop whining on retirement forums. ...

:confused: If you want to promote EVs, the tax credit subsidies are just about the worst bang for the buck. That's one reason I hate them. And if I hate something, and especially if I have a better alternative (invest in R&D instead), I certainly will 'whine' about it on forums.

And if I do buy an EV, I certainly will take the tax credit. Just like I do every other tax advantage I can legally claim, even if I disapprove of them. Until I can write the rules, all I can do is play the game.


... Your use of shaming language on anybody that thinks differently than you is pathetic. Grow up.

:confused: "shaming language". What the heck are you talking about? I'm trying to present objective information, with numbers and references. Challenge me on the same level, instead of name calling, and let's see if we can learn something.

-ERD50
 
I love government subsidies on everything! I use them as much as possible - :)
 
Good points ERD50. I believe there is a lot of speculation that future growth for Tesla will come from China. With a per capita GDP that's $8,800 vs us of $59,500, could be a case of champagne taste on a beer budget.

China is a very big country. There are lots and lots and lot of poor and lower middle class folks there who certainly can't afford a Tesla, but there are also lots of well to do Chinese who can.

When I picked up my Mercedes in Stuttgart a few years back the majority of the people there for the pickup tour were Chinese that morning. The welcome speech was in German, English, and Chinese (all given by the same woman, very impressive language skills). Actually, the Chinese there weren't really picking up their cars, but they still wanted the pick it up at the factory experience. So they came to Stuttgart for just that.

I expect Tesla can sell a lot of cars in China.
 
As I stated in post 1767, my Lexus L460 cost .22/mile while my Model 3 cost .03/mile, so we are talking 7x more expensive for me to drive the Lexus.

The numbers of course get closer if you compare cars that get 30mpg, but I think you are now comparing apples to oranges. I enjoy driving cars that have brisk acceleration. My Lexus goes from 0-60 in about 6.2 seconds, and the Model 3 in about 5.4 seconds.

Once I start looking at cars that get 30 mpg, we are now talking about Camry/Accord class vehicles with typical 0-60 times above 8 seconds. I can make the numbers look even more ICE favorable if I compare my Model 3 with a Prius, which we used to own before it was totaled in a crash. But that car was so painfully slow to drive that I refused to drive it at all, and left if for DH to drive exclusively.

An EV is the only solution for a super fast car that is highly economical and green to drive. If that is not important to you, there are plenty of ICE alternatives that are completely acceptable solutions for most people. EVs are clearly not for everyone. I think we all get that here.
 
Today, you can buy a new Model 3 (264 mile range) for $44,000 before any government incentives. Markets are now opening in the EU and China, as well. With the new Model Y SUV becoming available this year, demand for Tesla is unlikely to wane over the next couple of years. Serious competition for Tesla won't arrive until 2020 or beyond and Tesla should be even more competitive (with products and pricing) by that time.

The Model 3 VIN tracking site started breaking down the VINs by USA and non-USA. It will be pretty interesting to follow European sales. I think that will be the big market in the near future. China will grow as they are jumping on that Tesla Gigafactory (3) and the site is being prep'd already. They are not known to work at a slow pace.
Model 3 VINs has been updated with an option to show VIN batches based on region (North America and International). "International" VINs contain a ‘7' in digit 6 of the VIN (restraint system) and includes Europe as well as other countries.

TM6h1Xc.jpg
 
edit/add - I cross posted, submitted this before I saw Ready's # 1859

To use specific numbers for my situation:

I pay .13/Kw for home charging. My M3 has a 75Kw battery. .13x75 = 9.75. I get 310 miles range. 9.75/310 = .0314 cents per mile to drive the Tesla.

My Lexus LS460 averages 15 miles per gallon. I'll bump it up to 20 for highway only driving. I pay $3.40 for a gallon of gas. 3.40 / 15 = .2267 per mile to drive the Lexus.

So to compare the efficiency of my Tesla to my Lexus, it would be

.2267 / .0314 = 7.22. My Tesla is 7.22 more efficient than my Lexus.

Thanks for the numbers, but so many things to clarify in this short post.

First, it is kWh (Kilowatt Hours), not Kilowatts. kWh is energy (power over time), kW is power (at that instant - like the 211 kilowatts of power the motors deliver to the wheels as you accelerate). Don't mean to nit-pick on that, but it gets confusing in other contexts, best to learn to keep it straight.

A quick search and I don't see anyone getting 310 miles on 75 kWh that they paid for (242 watt-hours per mile). Part of that is, as I understand it, the indicator in the Tesla reports energy used from the battery (not from the wall - which is how you pay for it). So that does not include charging losses, or idle losses while plugged in, so those numbers will be somewhat worse.

You didn't bump the mpg to 20 for highway use. $3.40 ∕ 20 = $ 0.17 per mile.

You ratio isn't 'efficiency', it is a cost ratio. Again, not trying to nitpick, but these discussions are technical, and it's important to use the right words. Efficiency in this context is Pout/Pin, not $.

And of course this is local to electric rates and gasoline costs and vehicle choice. If fuel costs are the concern, there are plenty of vehicles with better mpg than your Lexus. I guess the Lexus takes premium? I see ~ $3.00 (regular, I assume?) from Gas Buddy in San Diego (still high compared to our $2.00 in Illinois). But clearly, your Tesla 'fuel costs' will be far less than your Lexus fuel costs, for the same miles.

But as I mentioned in the previous post, the 'fuel' cost delta favors EV, but not by so very much in some areas, if you have a higher mpg vehicle, and I do think it could get smaller, maybe even reverse in the future with road taxes and kWh and gas prices. Or maybe not.

-ERD50
 
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.... An EV is the only solution for a super fast car that is highly economical and green to drive. If that is not important to you, there are plenty of ICE alternatives that are completely acceptable solutions for most people. EVs are clearly not for everyone. I think we all get that here.

I agree that an ICE with the performance of a Tesla will suck a lot of gas, no doubt about that.

I cannot agree on the 'green to drive' comment. If 'green' is the goal, a decent hybrid is probably the best choice. But for equivalent performance, the Telsa might well be 'greener' than an ICE super car. But IMO, that's a little weird, like someone buying a huge house, keeping all the lights on 24/7, and then bragging that they use LEDs, so they are 'green'. :)

edit/add:

... there are plenty of ICE alternatives that are completely acceptable solutions for most people. EVs are clearly not for everyone. I think we all get that here.

Try telling that to some of the EV fans here, who claim we won't be able to find a gas station for the ICE we buy today ( or was it in just 5 years, or 10 years, or ? ) ! :)

-ERD50
 
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People keep talking here about cost per mile on fuel purchase. while that is a good feature, it's not the total story.

No one yet has made any kind of comparison on "total cost of ownership" over a selected period (say 100,000 miles) which can be:

Purchase price

Minus

- total operating cost (fuel, maint., repairs, tires, etc)
- Insurance costs, registration costs, etc,
-Sales tax, property tax costs,
-Anything I forgot....

+plus salvage value of the used up car at final disposition.

Factored over 100,000 miles.

I suspect that since most Tesla owners have not parted with a car or and have driven one 100K miles, getting the costs, etc would be difficult.
 
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Getting the TCO is reasonably easy: just look up the lease rates for the cars, and add in fuel.

Gives you an idea of where EVs are on the cost curve vs. hybrids.

There is a small caveat that leasing companies have to put in their own estimate of depreciation so they might be wrong, but all in all they do a reasonable job at it.
 
I agree that an ICE with the performance of a Tesla will suck a lot of gas, no doubt about that.
I cannot agree on the 'green to drive' comment. If 'green' is the goal, a decent hybrid is probably the best choice. But for equivalent performance, the Telsa might well be 'greener' than an ICE super car. But IMO, that's a little weird, like someone buying a huge house, keeping all the lights on 24/7, and then bragging that they use LEDs, so they are 'green'.
Try telling that to some of the EV fans here, who claim we won't be able to find a gas station for the ICE we buy today ( or was it in just 5 years, or 10 years, or ? )-ERD50

And why would a hybrid be greener than a full EV like Tesla? Wishful thinking.

Regarding Tesla vs ICE, a Tesla is greener on all fronts while performing like a super car. That is the point; economy plus performance makes it a superior car over ICE (and hybrid). Yes, taxation will be coming, but it defies common sense to think governments will tax EVs in a way that discourages their use. More likely, EVs will be taxed in a way that continues to incentivize their use over ICE.

The only current downside to EVs like Tesla are price and cross country charging. Both of those obstacles to adoption are quickly being overcome and daily drivers can simply be charged in the driveway (no more gas station visits).

EVs are the future of car travel. I can respect an argument concerning how fast ICE vehicles will disappear, but any suggestion that EVs are not going to wipe-out the ICE market is just plain short-sighted. Hybrids are just a stop-gap for some while the transition occurs. That is why I am investing in Tesla, not Ford.
 
I have been preparing an itinerary for another long European auto trek. I am reminded of how painful it can be to find a place to park a car. Most Europeans do not have a garage, and not even a driveway. Cars are all parked on the streets. It will be interesting to see how they are going to solve the problem with charging.

They also are not car lovers like Americans, and many of them drive smaller, older beat-up cars. It will be interesting to see how much they are willing to pay for an EV. They will need inexpensive EVs.

And that is in Western Europe. Eastern European countries are not that rich.
 
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I have been preparing an itinerary for another long European auto trek. I am reminded of how painful it can be to find a place to park a car. Most Europeans do not have a garage, and not even a driveway. Cars are all parked on the streets. It will be interesting to see how they are going to solve the problem with charging.
They also are not car lovers like Americans, and many of them drive smaller, older beat-up cars. It will be interesting to see how much they are willing to pay for an EV. They will need inexpensive EVs.
And that is in Western Europe. Eastern European countries are not that rich.

Where there is a will (or a market) there is a way:

https://insideevs.com/new-study-shows-canada-trailing-in-electric-car-adoption/

We are in the very early stages of this new and transformative technology. Adaptation will happen wherever a market can be found (like solving charging issues for those who park on the street). Where the market does not freely support the transition, governments (like those in the Scandinavian countries) will take steps to keep it moving.
 
And why would a hybrid be greener than a full EV like Tesla? Wishful thinking. ...

Not wishful thinking, facts. It is something I've discussed before in length on this forum, with data from the National Academy of Sciences. I'm busy now, will try to find links later if you have not found them yourself by then.

Hint: As I've probably mentioned recently, an EV is additional marginal draw on the grid. The grids in the US rarely (most are never) have an excess of RE, so to 'fuel' that EV, a non-RE power plant somewhere on the grid must increase its output. That plant is most likely a gas peaker, but if a fleet of EVs charge each night, it's likely that a grid operator will meet that expected demand with the cheapest fuel available, which may mean keeping a coal plant operating a bit higher overnight than they would w/o that added demand from EVs. Yes, your EV is mainly running on fossil fuel. Average generation on the grid does not matter - it is that extra marginal generation that matters. Any source dealing with average RE on a grid is missing the point.

... Yes, taxation will be coming, but it defies common sense to think governments will tax EVs in a way that discourages their use. ...

Hmmmm, the subsidies are ending for some EV brands. And...

https://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-ln-clean-air-car-decals-20180917-story.html

And why should any government encourage their use? If they are so great, they will expand on their own merits.

On Jan. 1, the owners of as many as 220,000 low- and zero-emission vehicles stand to lose the white and green clean-air decals that allow them to drive solo in the diamond lanes.

Those EV drivers are discouraged, to say the least.


... EVs are the future of car travel. I can respect an argument concerning how fast ICE vehicles will disappear, but any suggestion that EVs are not going to wipe-out the ICE market is just plain short-sighted. Hybrids are just a stop-gap for some while the transition occurs. ...

EVs will no doubt increase over the next few years. After that, who knows? The competition (hybrids, who knows what next?) is not standing still, and maybe more people will understand that EVs are not as green as they have been willing to believe.

Now, if you want to challenge the above, fine - but can we play by some helpful rules please? Like -

A) Please answer within the context I provided. I see a lot of diversion tactics in this thread. It appears that when the facts become inconvenient, the technique is to change the subject, and try to answer a different question.

B) Provide facts, figures, sources where applicable.

C) No 'appeal to authority' or other logical fallacies - the statements should be able to stand on their own.

D) Just admit when/if you are wrong.

Speaking of the above - can you go back and review post #1611? I got lost, what exactly were you trying to say about an ICE owner having trouble finding a gas station? It seems to me you never clarified that. And I think you tried to change the subject from gas stations being hard to find to some general statement about EV sales - IOW, changing the topic instead of addressing the issue. I don't want this post to just go open ended like that, that's a waste of time. So please close that #1611 gas station conversation out and explain yourself before we continue. Thanks.

-ERD50
 
And why would a hybrid be greener than a full EV like Tesla?

<snip>

The only current downside to EVs like Tesla are price and cross country charging. Both of those obstacles to adoption are quickly being overcome and daily drivers can simply be charged in the driveway (no more gas station visits).

I suppose the answer to the first question depends upon where the power for the hybrid comes from? Coal? Not so good. Damming some natural and/or wilderness area (Think the Hetch Hetchy Valley in Yosemite)? Again, not so good.

The downsides you mention are still significant, IMHO. I would love to have an EV, but the places I travel to and through often aren't on the main roads. Is there as guide/app that shows all publically available chargers everywhere in the USA and Canada? Do all chargers work with all EVs? That might help convince many.

The photo below shows the Hetch Hetchy valley before the city of San Francisco dammed it.
 
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Not wishful thinking, facts. It is something I've discussed before in length on this forum, with data from the National Academy of Sciences. I'm busy now, will try to find links later if you have not found them yourself by then.
Hint: As I've probably mentioned recently, an EV is additional marginal draw on the grid. The grids in the US rarely (most are never) have an excess of RE, so to 'fuel' that EV, a non-RE power plant somewhere on the grid must increase its output. That plant is most likely a gas peaker, but if a fleet of EVs charge each night, it's likely that a grid operator will meet that expected demand with the cheapest fuel available, which may mean keeping a coal plant operating a bit higher overnight than they would w/o that added demand from EVs. Yes, your EV is mainly running on fossil fuel. Average generation on the grid does not matter - it is that extra marginal generation that matters. Any source dealing with average RE on a grid is missing the point.

I do recall you citing a flawed study that grossly overstated the use of coal to generate electricity. Any more recent studies showing hybrids are cleaner? Regarding "marginal" increases in electricity generation, those will be gas plants, as you suggest, not coal plants. So, if we are already using those coal plants, why do you include them in the "marginal" increases? If the "marginal" increase in electricity is met with gas and not coal, then we are talking about a more eco-friendly solution over hybrids and ICE vehicles. You cannot seriously argue that a car powered by a natural gas plant is less green than a car powered by gasoline (hybrid or ICE).

And why should any government encourage their use? If they are so great, they will expand on their own merits.
EVs will no doubt increase over the next few years. After that, who knows? The competition (hybrids, who knows what next?) is not standing still, and maybe more people will understand that EVs are not as green as they have been willing to believe.

Why? It is irrelevant, because they are (I think it has something to do with carbon emissions). By the way, I am not talking about the current incentives, I am talking about how the government will tax EVs to replace gas taxes. As it stands, EVs are avoiding those taxes. When that changes, I contend that it will be done in a way that still incentivizes EV sales. Common sense.

Now, if you want to challenge the above, fine - but can we play by some helpful rules please? Like -
A) Please answer within the context I provided. I see a lot of diversion tactics in this thread. It appears that when the facts become inconvenient, the technique is to change the subject, and try to answer a different question.
B) Provide facts, figures, sources where applicable.
C) No 'appeal to authority' or other logical fallacies - the statements should be able to stand on their own.
D) Just admit when/if you are wrong.
Speaking of the above - can you go back and review post #1611? I got lost, what exactly were you trying to say about an ICE owner having trouble finding a gas station? It seems to me you never clarified that. And I think you tried to change the subject from gas stations being hard to find to some general statement about EV sales - IOW, changing the topic instead of addressing the issue. I don't want this post to just go open ended like that, that's a waste of time. So please close that #1611 gas station conversation out and explain yourself before we continue. Thanks.-ERD50

I'll pass on the gotcha game, but since this thread is devoted to whether Tesla is a good investment, can you tell us whether you believe Tesla is a stock worth investing in?
 
I suppose the answer to the first question depends upon where the power for the hybrid comes from? Coal? Not so good. Damming some natural and/or wilderness area (Think the Hetch Hetchy Valley in Yosemite)? Again, not so good.
The downsides you mention are still significant, IMHO. I would love to have an EV, but the places I travel to and through often aren't on the main roads. Is there as guide/app that shows all publically available chargers everywhere in the USA and Canada? Do all chargers work with all EVs? That might help convince many.

Odds are good that future plants will not be coal fired:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/will-the-u-s-ever-build-another-big-coal-plant/

I am not an expert on chargers, but I know that they are proliferating as we speak. Charging times also seem to be coming down with future models. The picture will be very different in a few years if these trends continue.
 
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