Thoughts on TESLA

[kcowan]

Of course this thread is ALL about focus on stock price. I guess you forget this is a message in "Stock Picking and Market Strategy" and specifically to this original question:

Perhaps you are confusing this with a topic on future of EV cars or a forum of Fanboys of Tesla?

The Mods removed a thread on EVs in general and suggested that all discussion might migrate to this thread.

 

[bobandsherry]

The Mods removed a thread on EVs in general and suggested that all discussion might migrate to this thread.

I don't understand their reasoning as it's offtopic to the OP and even to the broader forum topic.

Per the description of this forum:

Discussions about individual stocks or other investments, stock analysis, and market timing. Share your strategy or get advice about buying and selling decisions.

Not sure how discussion on EV's fit in, but whatever....

 

[bobandsherry]

I found this interesting read. Can't say I agree with everything, but close enough and pretty much on par with my thinking as I look at Tesla as an INVESTOR.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4251036-tesla-time-customer-investor-reality-check

Summary

Tesla vehicles are like four-wheeled rockets and the company is selling them to anyone with a drivers license. Some customers do not even get a test drive.

Buyers are allowing Tesla to get away with things they would never allow another dealer to do.

Bullish investors are ignoring the long-term impacts certain issues could have on sales, revenues, and profits. I have strategy suggestions at the end of this article.

 

[Aerides]

The Mods removed a thread on EVs in general and suggested that all discussion might migrate to this thread.

Not exactly. We rarely remove threads, but we do delete individual posts in threads when they are especially contentious, disruptive, or violate community rules. When that happens repeatedly in a thread, or a thread is clearly circling the drain, we close it.

And we closed the other EV thread because of such actions, and yes suggested we keep the whole lovely topic contained to this one, because everyone here is clearly enjoying this discussion...

As you are all aware, this thread has its own history of issues, and if you care to scroll back you'll find several warnings to keep things friendly. The tone of late has far improved, which is very helpful, so we hope that continues.

 

[Ready]

Is the 3 as good to drive as the S loaner you had? I remember your original post, and having only ever ridden in an S I'd be very impressed if the 3 manages to come close to the S.

The Model S was faster since it was a dual motor performance car. But the S drives like a large sedan, so aside from its speed I didn’t care that much for the way it handled. The Model 3 is much more fun to drive, and the technology in it is more advanced. If I had an unlimited budget I’d go for the Model 3 Performance over the Model S. Eventually the Model S will get a refresh but until it does I don’t see it being all that attractive.

 

[NW-Bound]

I found this interesting read. Can't say I agree with everything, but close enough and pretty much on par with my thinking as I look at Tesla as an INVESTOR.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4251036-tesla-time-customer-investor-reality-check

Summary

Tesla vehicles are like four-wheeled rockets and the company is selling them to anyone with a drivers license. Some customers do not even get a test drive.

Buyers are allowing Tesla to get away with things they would never allow another dealer to do.

Bullish investors are ignoring the long-term impacts certain issues could have on sales, revenues, and profits. I have strategy suggestions at the end of this article.

I got mellowed out and stopped caring about fast cars more than 20 years ago. If I bought a Tesla, it would be more for economic reasons, and its current price does not support the choice.

About Tesla shares as an investment, too much risk for my taste.

So, my interest on this is more about technology, mainly about the battery rather than about the car. This keeps me following the news about EVs.

 

[eroscott]

The Mods removed a thread on EVs in general and suggested that all discussion might migrate to this thread.

The mod did state to continue in the Tesla thread:

http://www.early-retirement.org/for...or-electric-vehicles-96228-7.html#post2190816

"Those who feel compelled to continue the EV discussion are welcome to visit the Tesla thread."

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

I got mellowed out and stopped caring about fast cars more than 20 years ago. If I bought a Tesla, it would be more for economic reasons, and its current price does not support the choice.

About Tesla shares as an investment, too much risk for my taste.

So, my interest on this is more about technology, mainly about the battery rather than about the car. This keeps me following the news about EVs.

My 2 Tesla's have amazing acceleration. But I drive nice and slow, and won't be getting any speeding tickets. Been that way all my life.

My neighbor just bought an Ioniq from Hyundai. 5th electric car on my block.

My utility company raised the EV credit from $450 to $1000 for 2019.

 

[bobandsherry]

More sleazy and/or depserate tactics?

Many buyers of Tesla’s new base Model 3 with Standard battery pack starting at $35,000 are reportedly being told by the automaker that their delivery is being delayed. In some cases, Tesla is trying to upsell them.

https://electrek.co/2019/03/26/tesla-model-3-standard-battery-delay/

 

[Texas Proud]

haha, haters/people are using the stock price as a gauge of the companies success in this very new line of electric car world wide sales.
How about comparing Tesla to every other *electric* car maker
AND how many new car makers have been successful in the past 100 years
AND how many car makers have failed in the past 100 years.

Tesla has successfully FORCED several manufacturers to get in this business. Several Germany car makers in very recent days have committed to all electric. GM, Ford, too. None of these would have without Tesla PROVING demand exist if the car is built with range AND performance AND charging speeds. Tesla Model 3s are now getting 145 kW at upgraded V2 Superchargers. Over 200 kW at V3 Superchargers.

My bold.... a statement without any facts.... other companies were looking at electric and even self driving cars... the question is has Tesla moved up their timeline any (probably)....


If all electric was the way to go then the other car companies would have gotten there without Tesla... someone else would have led, but all would be going that direction...

 

[Texas Proud]

Not exactly. We rarely remove threads, but we do delete individual posts in threads when they are especially contentious, disruptive, or violate community rules. When that happens repeatedly in a thread, or a thread is clearly circling the drain, we close it.

And we closed the other EV thread because of such actions, and yes suggested we keep the whole lovely topic contained to this one, because everyone here is clearly enjoying this discussion...

As you are all aware, this thread has its own history of issues, and if you care to scroll back you'll find several warnings to keep things friendly. The tone of late has far improved, which is very helpful, so we hope that continues.

I hope the mods are willing to put in the extra work to keep this open... I do find interesting to read and I learn a bit more about electric all the time...


But now I know why the investment side has slide a bit... I, like others, was still viewing it as an investment thread...

 

[aja8888]

My bold.... a statement without any facts.... other companies were looking at electric and even self driving cars... the question is has Tesla moved up their timeline any (probably)....


If all electric was the way to go then the other car companies would have gotten there without Tesla... someone else would have led, but all would be going that direction...

There were electric car manufacturers in the early 1900's. Plus, GM made an electric one in the 1980's but never went too far with it. The technology is there, and the base vehicle with an ICE or electric powertrain is essentially the same. What has made EV manufacturing a reality is the battery technology.

Actually, for today's infrastructure, hybrids make more sense for parctical use.

 

[Texas Proud]

There were electric car manufacturers in the early 1900's. Plus, GM made an electric one in the 1980's but never went too far with it. The technology is there, and the base vehicle with an ICE or electric powertrain is essentially the same. What has made EV manufacturing a reality is the battery technology.

Actually, for today's infrastructure, hybrids make more sense for parctical use.

I am with you on the hybrid for now... but there is a small minority that are pushing all electric.... and if they get all the problems worked out with range and charging time... and battery life and costs.... then it might be the better way...

 

[aja8888]

I am with you on the hybrid for now... but there is a small minority that are pushing all electric.... and if they get all the problems worked out with range and charging time... and battery life and costs.... then it might be the better way...

I agree on that, but it will take time and the car costs (mostly battery cost) needs to come down to reality. Most citizens cannot afford an EV at today's prices, no matter who makes them.

Then there's the issue with service over the long term. Now Tesla (has announced) is stopping selling long term maintenance contracts...who is going to buy one to have it last out of warranty if they can't get it serviced?

Lots of issues to remedy.

 

[bobandsherry]

Then there's the issue with service over the long term. Now Tesla (has announced) is stopping selling long term maintenance contracts...who is going to buy one to have it last out of warranty if they can't get it serviced?

This is one major issue that sits in the back of my head on purchasing a Tesla. Today, I take my car to some place other than the dealer for out of warranty repairs (cost, convenience, etc). Doesn't appear to be an option with Tesla, currently. Will that change? Dunno. But I shutter to think there is a monopoly on getting your Tesla serviced after warranty and them charging whatever they want. And Tesla won't be as "warm and fuzzy" to just give you a car at that time (use Google as your friend for proof on that).

 

[Lakewood90712]

Tesla announced today, another delay in standard range model 3 production. It was 4-6 mo after order, now on hold again. Probably is better to concentrate on the highest / best use of the production facilities, and forget selling cars at a loss.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

I am with you on the hybrid for now... but there is a small minority that are pushing all electric.... and if they get all the problems worked out with range and charging time... and battery life and costs.... then it might be the better way...

By small minority did you mean VW, Daimler and BMW? You might check what they all agreed to in the past week.

 

[Aerides]

I hope the mods are willing to put in the extra work to keep this open... I do find interesting to read and I learn a bit more about electric all the time...


But now I know why the investment side has slide a bit... I, like others, was still viewing it as an investment thread...

At 149 pages, rest assured the Mod team is already spending a lot of time on this thread. We can allow a little wiggle out of the tight parameters of "investment/stock related" but in return we do ask that everyone participate respectfully of others stances, opinions, and thoughts.

Excessive language that diminishes others thoughts is not welcome here or elsewhere on the site. We can do without characterizations of other members as haters/losers/idiots or anything else disparaging.

 

[Chuckanut]

All the current EV makers have a monopoly on parts and service at this time from what I know.

It would certainly be a foolish decision to abuse that position. It would not take long for the word to spread that people are being gouged. Who wants to buy a car that is overly expensive to repair? Well... some people will. BMW, Audi, Volvo come to mind as costing a lot more to keep on the road IIRC.

Of course just about every auto dealer in town is gouging compared to the independents. Nothing new there. Tesla would be smart to announce selling repair parts wholesale as of today.

We will see how it turns out.

 

[eroscott]

Tesla announced today, another delay in standard range model 3 production. It was 4-6 mo after order, now on hold again. Probably is better to concentrate on the highest / best use of the production facilities, and forget selling cars at a loss.

A) FYI, Looks like you can get just the notch above the SR still (SR+)
... you don't have to get the 44K Long Range
... if you go to Tesla.com and the Model 3 'build' page you see the
SR+ at 'only' $2.5K more is 2 weeks (more range, better audio, 12-way seats, etc).

1) 35.0K RWD SR (Standard Range) 4-6 weeks
2) 37.5K RWD SR+ (Standard Range Plus) 2 weeks
3) 44.5K RWD LR (Long Range) 2 weeks
4) 48.5K AWD LR (Long Range) 2 weeks
5) 59.5K AWD LR (Long Range Performance) 2 weeks

B) Tesla Model 3 earns rave review from one of Germany’s biggest magazines
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-rave-reviews-der-spiegel
"... the reviewers concluded that the Model 3 is something that should strike fear in traditional auto. “Mercedes, BMW, and Audi are trembling in front of this car,” the magazine noted."

C) Tesla tops European sales
https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-tops-european-sales-charts/
European Market share:
00% - Feb 2018 (left box)
31% - Feb 2019 (right pie chart)

 

[bobandsherry]

All the current EV makers have a monopoly on parts and service at this time from what I know.

It would certainly be a foolish decision to abuse that position. It would not take long for the word to spread that people are being gouged. Who wants to buy a car that is overly expensive to repair? Well... some people will. BMW, Audi, Volvo come to mind as costing a lot more to keep on the road IIRC.

Of course just about every auto dealer in town is gouging compared to the independents. Nothing new there. Tesla would be smart to announce selling repair parts wholesale as of today.

We will see how it turns out.

Did you do a search for "Tesla out of warranty repairs"? If not, give it a try. A bit of a window as to what I'm concerned with. You can speculate what may or may not happen in the future, but these issues are what is happening right now.

 

[JoeWras]

I am with you on the hybrid for now... but there is a small minority that are pushing all electric.... and if they get all the problems worked out with range and charging time... and battery life and costs.... then it might be the better way...

Yes. The range and charging problems are big right now.

I like the idea of Tesla because it is an actual car you can drive and be comfortable with. Just not comfortable quickly taking long trips, which is too bad.

Conversely, hybrids seem to fix that problem. But manufacturers have to make hybrids real cars. My friends and neighbors both got rid of their Prius because of comfort issues. My neighbor said he started to feel every road bump through his spine. So, make it a real car and not some attempt to hypermile through skinny tires and odd cramped shapes.

I'm still an all-ICE guy, but I am watching closely on both the hybrid and pure EV front.

 

[bobandsherry]

Yes. The range and charging problems are big right now.

I like the idea of Tesla because it is an actual car you can drive and be comfortable with. Just not comfortable quickly taking long trips, which is too bad.

Conversely, hybrids seem to fix that problem. But manufacturers have to make hybrids real cars. My friends and neighbors both got rid of their Prius because of comfort issues. My neighbor said he started to feel every road bump through his spine. So, make it a real car and not some attempt to hypermile through skinny tires and odd cramped shapes.

I'm still an all-ICE guy, but I am watching closely on both the hybrid and pure EV front.

There are "real car"hybrids. Example, Lexus ES, Lexus RS, Lincoln MKZ, Volvo XC90, Toyota Avalon, Toyota Camry and Honda Accord are examples. Heck, Porsche Cayenne is also available as Hybrid, so not really an issue of making them a "real car". Perhaps it more people are looking for a "cheap" hybrid and therefore they get that in a Prius, as you would with any low priced car.

 

[JoeWras]

There are "real car"hybrids. Example, Lexus ES, Lexus RS, Lincoln MKZ, Volvo XC90, Toyota Avalon, Toyota Camry and Honda Accord are examples. Heck, Porsche Cayenne is also available as Hybrid, so not really an issue of making them a "real car". Perhaps it more people are looking for a "cheap" hybrid and therefore they get that in a Prius, as you would with any low priced car.

Good point! I haven't been paying attention.

I also haven't had a ride in one. Maybe I should spend some time for a test drive for the hell of it.

They actually are doing them well enough that it went under my radar.

 

[bobandsherry]

Good point! I haven't been paying attention.

I also haven't had a ride in one. Maybe I should spend some time for a test drive for the hell of it.

They actually are doing them well enough that it went under my radar.

I'll be in the market for new car in next few months and I've been trying to decide on what I want. Been noodling if I want hybrid or not so I've been looking. Haven't dug deep and def haven't made up my mind.