Thoughts on TESLA

[eroscott]

We do stop along the way... and I have had some of the most interesting stops that were unplanned...

On my 5000+ mile trip last year I had dozens of unplanned stops. That waterfall was one of my favorites ("Niagara Falls of the West" https://i.imgur.com/vBnmmJi.jpg). Completely unplanned. A relative on FB recommended it when I said the general area I was in. One was a 'Dutch' museum actually. I don't need to charge at all these unplanned stops. I just take them as I see fit.

I'm amused that 10-minute requirements to fill up, stretch, bathroom breaks are required for retired folks. I've had enough hustle in my life that I can take an extra 10-15 minutes.

I often eat lunch around the superchargers but not necessarily dinner. My lunches are generally quick < 45min-to-1hr. Some are sit down with a waiter and some are a counter. In Indianapolis, I think I have eaten at 6 restaurants around there. I like dinner at nicer places with local recommendations or good reviews.

At one of my supercharger stops last year I was hanging out chatting with a 90 yr old local at a table outside of a coffee shop and took the picture below. I was not in a big hurry

 

[JoeWras]

I'm amused that 10-minute requirements to fill up, stretch, bathroom breaks are required for retired folks. I've had enough hustle in my life that I can take an extra 10-15 minutes.

Glad we can provide you entertainment!

 

[eroscott]

Re: Tesla PowerPacks -- utility and commercial business -- (bigger than EVs now/future?)
https://www.tesla.com/powerpack
Use: limit peaker plant needs, buying on open market, limit higher tier pricing mid-day, etc.

27-Mar-2019
Title: Tesla Powerpack hardware installation in Osaka, Japan completed in two days
https://www.teslarati.com/telsa-powerpack-osaka-japan/

Tesla recently announced its Powerpack installation in Osaka, Japan, which will be used to provide emergency backup power to trains in the area. The installation, comprised of 42 Powerpack units, is also designed to reduce energy demand on the city’s grid during peak hours.

With the energy storage units in place, trains and passengers would still be able to reach the nearest station in the event of an outage. Particularly impressive in Tesla’s recent announcement is that the hardware installation of the 42 Powerpack units was completed in just two days, an impressive feat considering the system’s size.

Tesla’s new Powerpack installation will be invaluable to Osaka’s commuting public, as their travels would not be disrupted as much when sudden power interruptions happen. Osaka’s trains are among the busiest in the country, with the transportation system being used by millions of passengers on a consistent basis (data from Japan’s Transportation Bureau estimated that in the fiscal year 2013, Osaka’s trains were transporting around 2.4 million people daily).

Tesla Energy usually takes a backseat to the company’s electric car division, but it is a business that holds a lot of potential. Legendary billionaire Ron Baron has estimated that by 2030, Tesla Energy would be worth $500 billion on its own, pushing Tesla’s total market cap to $1 trillion. The growth of Tesla Energy has been hailed by Elon Musk too, with the CEO noting during the Model Y unveiling that 2019 will be the year of the Solar Roof and Powerwall, signifying a ramp of the company’s battery storage business.
<snip>

 

[Texas Proud]

Re: Tesla PowerPacks -- utility and commercial business -- (bigger than EVs now/future?)
https://www.tesla.com/powerpack
Use: limit peaker plant needs, buying on open market, limit higher tier pricing mid-day, etc.

27-Mar-2019
Title: Tesla Powerpack hardware installation in Osaka, Japan completed in two days
https://www.teslarati.com/telsa-powerpack-osaka-japan/

I do not know if the energy unit will be worth $500 bill or not, but I do think it has much more potential to make a profit than the car unit...


Also, and I do not know if it can, if it can do it instantly then it would be very useful for data centers... there is a big need for backup power... right now only long enough to get the generators running, but if the price is right it could be a longer bridge that what is used now...


I would also throw in other critical places like hospitals and high rise buildings... nobody wants to be stuck in an elevator when the power goes out...

 

[NW-Bound]

Yes, large lithium batteries are exciting to me, and a lot of uses will open up the more their price drops. What I really want to know is the current cost per kWh.

But Tesla is more a system builder, as their batteries are made by Panasonic. Other battery makers like LG and BYD will not be sitting still. They make the batteries as well as the systems.

These large battery units are pre-assembled and trucked to sites. For example, see this installation of a BYD 100MWh storage system, consisting of 200 containers as shown below, each storing 500kWh. Would it not be wonderful to have a much smaller unit than that container in my backyard? Say, 100kWh or so. Does it still cost $50K?

See: https://insideevs.com/byd-to-deliver-100-mwh-energy-storage-in-mexico/


PS: The Tesla installation in Osaka consists of 42 Powerpacks, each storing 200kWh for a total of 8.4 MWh. It is not the largest that Tesla has installed.

 

[eroscott]

...
Also, and I do not know if it can, if it can do it instantly then it would be very useful for data centers... there is a big need for backup power... right now only long enough to get the generators running, but if the price is right it could be a longer bridge than what is used now...

I would also throw in other critical places like hospitals and high rise buildings... nobody wants to be stuck in an elevator when the power goes out...

Re: 'instantly' -- the speed of these systems.

Per this article, I sent to friends in the related business a while back -- milliseconds.

By Giles Parkinson on 19 December 2017
http://reneweconomy.com.au/tesla-bi...bering-coal-units-after-loy-yang-trips-70003/
The Tesla big battery is having a big impact on Australia’s electricity market, far beyond the South Australia grid where it was expected to time shift a small amount of wind energy and provide network services and emergency back-up in case of a major problem.

Last Thursday, one of the biggest coal units in Australia, Loy Yang A 3, tripped without warning at 1.59am, with the sudden loss of 560MW and causing a slump in frequency on the network.

What happened next has stunned electricity industry insiders and given food for thought over the near to medium term future of the grid, such was the rapid response of the Tesla big battery to an event that happened nearly 1,000km away.

Even before the Loy Yang A unit had finished tripping, the 100MW/129MWh had responded, injecting 7.3MW into the network to help arrest a slump in frequency that had fallen below 49.80Hertz.

Data from AEMO (and gathered above by Dylan McConnell from the Climate and Energy College) shows that the Tesla big battery responded four seconds ahead of the generator contracted at that time to provide FCAS (frequency control and ancillary services), the Gladstone coal generator in Queensland.

But in reality, the response from the Tesla big battery was even quicker than that – in milliseconds – but too fast for the AEMO data to record.

HPR in below graph = Hornsdale Power Reserve :

 

[oneill225]

Tesla Competition

Interesting to see that Chevy will not reduce Bolt prices when tax credits are reduced in April.

https://insideevs.com/chevy-bolt-price-tax-credit/

Looks like Chevy is selling fewer than 3,000 Bolts per month vs Tesla Model 3 sales of over 20,000 per month (4th Quarter 2018). This is the closest thing to competition for Tesla in the US.

 

[aja8888]

I'm amused that 10-minute requirements to fill up, stretch, bathroom breaks are required for retired folks. I've had enough hustle in my life that I can take an extra 10-15 minutes.

One of these days you will (I hope) figure out why we retirees do not want to waste time for no good reason. Us retirees only have so much of it left and we want to use it effectively.

 

[eroscott]

Interesting to see that Chevy will not reduce Bolt prices when tax credits are reduced in April.

https://insideevs.com/chevy-bolt-price-tax-credit/

Looks like Chevy is selling fewer than 3,000 Bolts per month vs Tesla Model 3 sales of over 20,000 per month (4th Quarter 2018). This is the closest thing to competition for Tesla in the US.

They sold ~18000 Bolts last year in the USA which is about 1500/month. I'm really surprised their 4th quarter and 1st quarter so far have not had good sales with the $7500 tax credit going away.

The Bolt is being used for the Cruise Automation car that GM bought for the tech otherwise I would have guessed it's days would be numbered when their next EV(s) came out.

Chevrolet Silverado 2018 4th quarter sales:

 

[Ready]

I predict Bolt sales will fall off a cliff after April 1 when the tax credit is cut in half. Even before the Model 3 came out Chevy wasn’t selling many Bolts. Without the government credits to support them there really isn’t any reason to buy them any more. I doubt we will see a 2020 Bolt.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

EV sales in the US up 79% in 2018

Ireland is up 541% in 2019 so far.

 

[oneill225]

I predict Bolt sales will fall off a cliff after April 1 when the tax credit is cut in half. Even before the Model 3 came out Chevy wasn’t selling many Bolts. Without the government credits to support them there really isn’t any reason to buy them any more. I doubt we will see a 2020 Bolt.

It will make it less competitive with the Model 3 and other EVs. I am amazed at how slowly the big 3 are adopting EVs. Ford is testing a plug-in truck and talks about a Mustang "inspired" cross-over, but all of it is years away. It is as if they are just holding the door open for Tesla to destroy their business.

 

[eroscott]

There is a ton of action going on in China. Nice an American company is doing well and exporting. the GF3 will produce many 3 and Ys there. 3s this year (Y test vehicles likely too).

Sales centers are delivering a lot of cars (200+/day at one). They are very large with a sea of people and couches w/kids/families. Lot of home deliveries too.

GigaFactory3 GF3 is moving along very fast.

Many videos being sent to this Twitter User and YouTuber. He apparently has a large following in China sending him updates.

Youtube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCpTkY-EEjfTcbkFYtsHbRrQ/videos

Twitter feed: https://twitter.com/vincent13031925

This GF3 area was a muddy field not that many weeks ago. Many pylon drivers worked in parallel. Cement floors poured.

Quote from various sources: Tesla is Favored by Chinese Leaders. Tesla was the first company allowed to be the sole owner of a car factory in China. Sole ownership of a car fatory was not given to other carmakers operating in the country. Local banks competed to give Tesla low-interest loans. China’s national and city government are aligning policy to ensure Tesla has a fast construction. Tesla was able to secure the 864,885-square meter plot of land without any rival bidders.

 

[eroscott]

EV sales in the US up 79% in 2018
Ireland is up 541% in 2019 so far.

Europe graphs YOY look pretty promising!

https://insideevs.com/european-ev-market-up-36-february-2019/

 

[JoeWras]

Personal data being extracted from auctioned cars

Yikes. Now we have people extracting very personal information left on crashed Teslas bought at auction.

It is bad enough companies are using all this information. But to not encrypt it and leave it for easy extraction? Including the actual crash video? Come on!

By the way, the video shown in this article is a classic case of an over-correction accident. It could actually be used for educational purposes. This is the leading cause of head-on collisions on 2 lane roads.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/29/tes...ike-crash-videos-location-phone-contacts.html

If you crash your Tesla, when it goes to the junk yard, it could carry a bunch of your history with it.[FONT=&quot]

[/FONT]That's because the computers on Tesla vehicles keep everything that drivers have voluntarily stored on their cars, plus tons of other information generated by the vehicles including video, location and navigational data showing exactly what happened leading up to a crash, according to two security researchers.

One researcher, who calls himself GreenTheOnly, describes himself as a "white hat hacker" and a Tesla enthusiast who drives a Model X. He has extracted this kind of data from the computers in a salvaged Tesla Model S, Model X and two Model 3 vehicles, while also making tens of thousands of dollars cashing in on Tesla bug bounties in recent years.​

 

[NW-Bound]

Was the driver in the video over-correcting, or just going too fast on that winding country road and missing a curve, and at night at that? Was he drunk? Could have killed another innocent driver. Idiot!

PS. The article says that "Another video stored on the car showed an earlier accident where the Model 3 side-swiped a guard rail". Another trait of idiots is that they never learn. Ordinary people usually learn from a mistake that they survive.

 

[Totoro]

What I really want to know is the current cost per kWh.

The capital seems to be around $500 / kWh for sizeable commercial deployments. See p.14 (p.22 of the PDF) of this report:

https://www.lazard.com/media/450774/lazards-levelized-cost-of-storage-version-40-vfinal.pdf

That's roughly in line with the current price of the Powerwall. Prices are dropping about 8% a year, which is roughly equal to halving every 8 years. Which surprises me actually a little bit since automotive EV batteries are claimed to be around $200/kWh at present at the pack level.

Would it not be wonderful to have a much smaller unit than that container in my backyard? Say, 100kWh or so. Does it still cost $50K?

It seems so. I do expect within 20 years that it drops down to below $10k, but who knows.

 

[Totoro]

Interesting breakdown on cost structure:

https://www.bcg.com/publications/2018/future-battery-production-electric-vehicles.aspx

The market forecast as usual should be taken with grains of salt of unusual size.

 

[eroscott]

Yikes. Now we have people extracting very personal information left on crashed Teslas bought at auction.

It is bad enough companies are using all this information. But to not encrypt it and leave it for easy extraction? Including the actual crash video? Come on!

CNBC has many gotcha and 'breaking' negative stories on Tesla. <wink wink> Follow the money. Haha, do you know how popular (and cheap) dashcams are nowadays. They are in 100s of thousands of vehicles. Most have unencrypted micro SD cards that you just pull out and put on your computer. Tesla data is within hardware components and you have to be a good hacker to extract it. They are not just regular MP4/AVI format videos you can extract and play on your PC. Special processing is required.

 

[eroscott]

Interesting breakdown on cost structure:

https://www.bcg.com/publications/2018/future-battery-production-electric-vehicles.aspx

The market forecast as usual should be taken with grains of salt of unusual size.

Very interesting article overall.

PLANNED PRODUCTION INCREASES WILL CREATE PRICE PRESSURE
In an effort to reduce cell production costs through economies of scale, leading battery producers have announced plans to add significantly more production capacity. Such announcements have occurred frequently in the past year. For example, Chinese battery maker Contemporary Amperex Technology announced plans to build its first European EV battery factory in Germany, and US automaker Tesla has said it is considering opening a cell production factory in Germany. The largest cell production factories are planned for Asia, with Chinese manufacturers making the steepest increases in capacity.

Through 2021, the planned increases would more than double the installed global production capacity. Even though global demand for EV batteries is expected to rise significantly, it will not catch up to the planned production capacity in the near term.

The amount of reuse for lithium batteries is huge as well. U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science (anl.gov) created a focused site: https://recellcenter.org/research/
I've heard 99% but some claim 100%. https://www.fleetcarma.com/electric-vehicle-batteries-reused-recycled/

One of the premier EV battery recycling companies is Li-Cycle, a Canada-based company that uses advanced recycling technologies that can recover up to 100% of lithium from lithium-ion batteries.

 

[JoeWras]

CNBC has many gotcha and 'breaking' negative stories on Tesla. <wink wink> Follow the money. Haha, do you know how popular (and cheap) dashcams are nowadays. They are in 100s of thousands of vehicles. Most have unencrypted micro SD cards that you just pull out and put on your computer. Tesla data is within hardware components and you have to be a good hacker to extract it. They are not just regular MP4/AVI format videos you can extract and play on your PC. Special processing is required.

I have a choice what to do with my dashcam after a crash.

Totalled Teslas are being bought at auction by savvy people who want the batteries and more. They are tinkerers, most of who are Tesla fans. Some want to extract data and have the ability to do it.

 

[oneill225]

Yikes. Now we have people extracting very personal information left on crashed Teslas bought at auction.
It is bad enough companies are using all this information. But to not encrypt it and leave it for easy extraction? Including the actual crash video? Come on!

This lack of privacy has been going on for years. Your SSN and banking info have likely been "stolen" dozens of times from various databases over the years. Who knows what companies like Facebook, Google, Amazon and others are really doing with your contacts, browsing habits and purchase records? This is a reality of our modern world.

Regarding cars, they all now have a "black box" that records similar data to what is found in a Tesla. There is some debate in the courts as to who "owns" this data, but all of it is subject to disclosure with a search warrant. Also, all cars with a navigation system store your previous destinations and locations. Car dash cams (another growing tech) also store a loop of video that will reveal what took place during a crash.

Is this lack of privacy a good thing? No, but it is the price of convenience and connectivity in today's world. I am glad you are finally starting to recognize it.

 

[NW-Bound]

Interesting breakdown on cost structure:

https://www.bcg.com/publications/2018/future-battery-production-electric-vehicles.aspx

The market forecast as usual should be taken with grains of salt of unusual size.

I found the following excerpt interesting.

Current industry benchmarks suggest that the electric powertrain (including the electric motor, power electronics, and battery pack) will account for at least 50% of a BEV’s cost. By comparison, the ICE powertrain typically accounts for approximately 16% of a traditional vehicle’s cost. (See Exhibit 2.) The battery pack (including the battery management system) is the major cost, accounting for about 35% of the overall vehicle cost...

 

[ERD50]

Interesting breakdown on cost structure:

https://www.bcg.com/publications/2018/future-battery-production-electric-vehicles.aspx

The market forecast as usual should be taken with grains of salt of unusual size.

Their forecast for Battery EVs (BEVs) is, IMO, more in line with reality than some of the posters here who claim anyone buying an ICE car today may have trouble finding a gas station during the life of that car. From the report:

While they predict 48% market share for "EVs" in 2030, look at the fine print - they include mild hybrids, hybrids, and plug-in hybrids in that "EV" category. So they are predicting that 14% of sales will be BEVs. And with sales of 1% - 6% in the first 5 years of that, the overall % of the fleet will be quite a bit less.

Focusing on year-over-year percentage increases in certain markets, which some posters seem to like to do because the number appears impressive, isn't very meaningful in a new market. Going from 100 Evs sold to 200 is a 100% increase, but not very meaningful.

-ERD50

 

[oneill225]

Their forecast for Battery EVs (BEVs) is, IMO, more in line with reality than some of the posters here who claim anyone buying an ICE car today may have trouble finding a gas station during the life of that car.
While they predict 48% market share for "EVs" in 2030, look at the fine print - they include mild hybrids, hybrids, and plug-in hybrids in that "EV" category. So they are predicting that 14% of sales will be BEVs. And with sales of 1% - 6% in the first 5 years of that, the overall % of the fleet will be quite a bit less.
-ERD50

A good prediction, but made prior to the success of the Tesla Model 3. What they were predicting for 2020 and beyond actually started in 2017. Also, the success of hybrids has not followed in the numbers predicted and the cost of electric cars has come down much faster than they predicted.

The way this works has been laid out before. As soon as the winner in a marketplace is made clear, the losers are quickly abandoned. Remember Beta tapes? As soon as VHS took over (thanks to pornography), the Beta format collapsed. Once DVD's became the preferred format VHS quickly collapsed, and once streaming video claimed the lead, DVDs became a side note. There is only one Blockbuster video still open and it exists as a novelty.

Will gas cars still be around in 10 years? Of course. Just as I still have some VHS tapes on my shelf collecting dust. New cars will be electric, however, and with a dying gas car market, gas stations will become another Blockbuster video. A novelty, not a necessity.