It looks like a real estate correction will be coming as Baby Boomers "exit home ownership." 21 million homes over the next 20 years:
Boomers won’t all act or ultimately die at once, so I’d expect a long downward price appreciation trend more than a “correction” or something abrupt like the 2008-09 RE meltdown - which RE prices fully recovered from years ago. Prices will respond to excess supply as always, but it’ll be a persistent trend versus a correction. And it’s not like the impact of Boomers on the economy hasn’t been fully discussed, shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone who can fog a mirror.It looks like a real estate correction will be coming as Baby Boomers "exit home ownership." 21 million homes over the next 20 years:
I was questioning the use of “correction” and “tsunami” as overstating for dramatic effect. I agree it will be as you describe.Yeah, perhaps crater was a poor word to use, but it will a long, steady and very significant decline in demand.
And they said the same thing would happen as Boomers downsized into smaller homes as they retired, which technically began in 2011. So far so good it seems.This was predicted by Forbes magazine, prior to 2008. I'm trying to find the link.....
Nothing occurs in a vacuum.
At the same time as the Boomers are "exiting home ownership" and eventually this orb, the largest demographic cohort group ever (numbering over 75 million in the U.S.), the Millenials (aka Echo Boomers, born ~1981 - ~1996) will be doing whatever their generation decides to do as far as real estate. They've got to live somewhere, whether it's in walkable cities, or beachfront huts, or in their grandma's old house.
omni
I was questioning the use of “correction” and “tsunami” as overstating for dramatic effect. I agree it will be as you describe.
Keep in mind that the beach will be located a little farther inland for the Millenials and their children. Especially in Florida. Rising water probably won't affect the supply of moderate price houses inland, but those fancy high rises might have some issues. And it will be hotter also, for them.
some speculation from the link:
What We’ll See
-Millennial generation Floridians, by this period in their senior years [2050-2075-, will be living in a Florida much changed from that of their youth.
-In Pinellas, as sea-level rise reaches three to four feet, major chunks of the barrier islands will be lost.
-In central Florida, Lake Monroe, far inland, swells to absorb connected lakes.
You’ll need a kayak to get to the door of Cedar Key City Hall.
-Kennedy Space Center and the commercial rocket industry grow increasingly isolated by rising water.
-Fort Lauderdale indeed becomes America’s Venice, with water at residential doorsteps, U.S. 1 under water and downtown awash at three feet and gone at four. The corporate descendant of Flagler’s railroad will need to span long stretches of Broward water — imitating his ill-fated original Overseas Railroad in the Keys — to remain operational.
-At three feet, Miami Beach is gone but for a spine close to the Atlantic. Brickell has standing water, and the Miami River widens up through central Miami-Dade. Water penetration from the former Everglades consumes western urbanized Miami-Dade.
-In the Keys, at 24 inches of rise, nuisance floods occur 672 times per year — nearly every daily high tide.
https://www.floridatrend.com/article/23305/sea-level-rise-and-florida-2050--2075
Don't matter.
The USSR nukes blew us up in the 50s, hide under your desk.
Air pollution is so bad we can't leave the house since the 60s.
We all died of skin cancer in the 70s from the ozone layer vanishing.
Anyway, it's all owned by the Japanese who bought all of America in the 80s.
(I believe in human caused warming, but don't think we have the wisdom or knowledge to model what the real effects will be. So let's burn a bit less coal and oil even if it's just for breathable air.)
some speculation from the link:
What We’ll See
[…]
https://www.floridatrend.com/article/23305/sea-level-rise-and-florida-2050--2075
Anyone remember the terrible threat of a chilling Earth caused by "nuclear warming"? And I distinctly recall reading that the early 1960's were supposedly bringing in a new "Little Ice Age."
In fact, one of my earliest toddler memories is of my dad and older brother shoveling snow off the roof of our one story house in NJ.
Anyone remember the terrible threat of a chilling Earth caused by "nuclear warming"? And I distinctly recall reading that the early 1960's were supposedly bringing in a new "Little Ice Age."
LOL! Breitbart. 'Nuf said.Here's an article about it and documents many of the sources for those who insist on links for such things:
https://www.breitbart.com/environme...rts-are-0-41-with-their-doomsday-predictions/