Chuckanut
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Good. I hope home prices fall. Maybe my kids will be able to afford to live where they grew up.
The Silver Tsunami & Real Estate
- Thread starter Tekward
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marko
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
- Joined
- Mar 16, 2011
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I suppose that in the late 60's it would have been reasonable to predict a massive negative economic upheaval ahead based upon the idea that the new generation was vehemently rejecting 'the establishment', corporate America, home ownership etc and everything our parents stood for.
Generally speaking, by the late 70's we had turned into the most selfish, materialistic generation in history and we ended sharing our parents' values a lot more than we want to admit.
So, 'predictions are hard, especially about the future'.
Generally speaking, by the late 70's we had turned into the most selfish, materialistic generation in history and we ended sharing our parents' values a lot more than we want to admit.
So, 'predictions are hard, especially about the future'.
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Big_Hitter
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
i hope kids everywhere will eventually be able to afford homes in the neighborhoods where they grew up, because most can't now
timo2
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Plus the geographic area will affect their insurance premiums, which could be unaffordable.
from the link:
"What's happening: Company payouts for natural catastrophes in 2017 and 2018 stood at $219 billion, the highest ever for a consecutive two-year period, according to Swiss Re, a company that underwrites risks for insurers, known as a reinsurer.
Insurers continue to write policies in areas prone to disaster, but tend to hike monthly premiums to offset the cost.
Every state saw annual premiums rise between 2007 and 2016 (the latest available data from the National Association of Insurance Commissioners).
States in Tornado Alley saw the biggest jump: Oklahoma saw a $654 increase over a decade, while Kansas saw premiums rise $501 on average.
Yes, but: The rise masks that insurers are limiting coverage in areas deemed too risky.
The 2018 Camp Fire in northern California was the most destructive in terms of property damage in the state's history.
Insured losses topped $13 billion last year, according to the California Department of Insurance (CDOI).
Fearing bigger losses, insurers are pulling back from high-risk areas in California, leaving homeowners scrambling.
In the last three years, the counties at greatest risk for wildfires saw the number of new and renewed homeowners’ insurance policies fall by 8,700, per CDOI.
In Florida, homeowners have seen insurance costs rise in areas considered more at-risk by insurers.
For residents by the beach or coast: Mortgage companies require flood insurance, a separate policy that's usually provided by the federal National Flood Insurance Program for typically around $700.
Homeowners also need wind-related insurance, on top of regular homeowner's insurance, which are sometimes sold as a package.
"A huge portion of homeowner policy is wind- or hurricane-related in South Florida," Shahid Hamid, a professor at Florida International University, tells Axios."
https://www.axios.com/newsletters/a...hN_LBTltQiiKQ2FI1hpqooEyNwKO6d2JP572ww#story0
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Big_Hitter
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
no doubt - wildfires, earthquakes, tornadoes and...tropical cyclones - why we moved to Idaho
ExFlyBoy5
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
No doubt. This is one of the main reasons we left the Atlanta area...simply way, WAY too many people. And when I was out and about, most of those I saw were folks NOT of the boomer demographic.
I say there is a 0% chance of a "real estate catastrophe" that lasts more than 5-10 years as we have seen in the past.
W2R
Moderator Emeritus
I still can't! So a long time ago I pulled up my big girl pants and accepted that fact. The h*ll with it. Besides, the place has changed and my memories are probably a lot better than the reality. Also, when growing up we were out of the country much of the time so it's not like I wasn't used to other places, too.
My life here in New Orleans has been lots of fun and very enjoyable as well, and like Frank Sinatra, "I did it my way".
Andre1969
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
One thing I'm noticing in my area, is a large amount of new development devoted to 55 and over communities. They're nice, big houses that look like they're great for entertaining, and they have small lots, so there's not much maintenance. But they're expensive as hell. I have a friend whose mother sold her home and moved into one of the communities a few years ago. She had a nice 4br, 2.5ba colonial that went for around $525K or so, but then she went up in price, to buy this retirement home...somewhere in the low $600s.
For awhile, she was struggling to make the payment, but things have settled down and she's okay now. Still, at a point in life where you'd think people would be downsizing, these houses seem like a last gasp for capitalism to try and keep the inheritances of the Boomers from their offspring. And, there's a LOT of them going up in my area, so apparently, there's a demand for them.
Another trend I've been noticing, is these four-level townhouses, and condos that look like townhouses, but are really a 2-story condo stacked on top of another 2-story. Those things might be fine and dandy when you're younger, but I can see all those stairs playing hell on your knees, as you age.
It will be interesting to see where the housing market heads, in the future. It seems to me that, as the Boomers die off, there aren't really enough Gen-Xers to really take their place, so there might be be a glut of those over 55 homes. But, that might bring the prices down to where they're affordable, by the time the Millennials start hitting 55. Provided they want them, that is.
For awhile, she was struggling to make the payment, but things have settled down and she's okay now. Still, at a point in life where you'd think people would be downsizing, these houses seem like a last gasp for capitalism to try and keep the inheritances of the Boomers from their offspring. And, there's a LOT of them going up in my area, so apparently, there's a demand for them.
Another trend I've been noticing, is these four-level townhouses, and condos that look like townhouses, but are really a 2-story condo stacked on top of another 2-story. Those things might be fine and dandy when you're younger, but I can see all those stairs playing hell on your knees, as you age.
It will be interesting to see where the housing market heads, in the future. It seems to me that, as the Boomers die off, there aren't really enough Gen-Xers to really take their place, so there might be be a glut of those over 55 homes. But, that might bring the prices down to where they're affordable, by the time the Millennials start hitting 55. Provided they want them, that is.
timo2
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
I had the opportunity to visit one of those this last summer. Previously I had no idea they existed. OMG the stairs!! The one I visited was a two story 'condo' set on top of a separate first floor condo. The stairs were steep and seemed narrow, like in the old pre WW2 houses. The people I was visiting, that is their downsizing move for retirement!. OTOH, the owner is 66 and still runs marathons.
ExFlyBoy5
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
A good number of my friends parents have retired and "upsized" their houses. I don't really get it personally; you get the kids out of the house and then buy a BIGGER one? One such couple bought a monster of a house with 7 bedrooms. The rationale was that they enjoyed doing "murder mystery" overnight stays but last I heard, they have had two of these events over the last 10 years of owning the house.
To each their own!
To each their own!
davebarnes
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
We have friends who moved from a 3000+ sqft house in NJ to a 3000+ sqft house here in a 55+ community north of Denver.
They downsized their real estate taxes from $36K to $3.5K.
But, they finished the basement of the new house and now have a 4000+ sqft house. But, they 2 people living in it, so I guess they need the space for the 8 months a year they are here.
aja8888
Moderator Emeritus
We downsized to a 1,976 sq.ft. single level brick home in a 55+ community when DW retired (about 5 years ago). We love the place and neighbors. Plus, our home-related expenses dropped significantly. And, the yard work is done by the HOA contractors.
ncbill
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Seems like everybody wants to move closer in to the city, so I can see 55+ communities purpose-built out in the middle of nowhere declining in population.
timo2
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
I've been trying to get a handle on the 'OK Boomer' thing (since I'm a boomer), and from what I understand, FWIW, your post would qualify for an 'OK Boomer' response from some random millennial. If my understanding is correct
Hell, I offered our Hawaii house to all three kids, & all three grandkids, & not a one of them is interested in inheriting it! Go figure.
I think it depends on the house. I bought a lace that has plenty of room but is valued below the median for the area. So there should be no problem reselling it.
But people who are buying near the top end with many similar homes nearby may find themselves waiting longer for a buyer.
Because of job uncertainty (and no pension plan to build loyalty), many younger families think it risky to buy. If they rent, they can move on without problem. Plus families are smaller so no 4-5 BR houses really needed, property taxes are climbing, AND fewer people who can buy also. So the current houses will not appreciate as quickly.
That being said, I believe a home should be considered a purchase but not an investment and you should only buy what you need.
But people who are buying near the top end with many similar homes nearby may find themselves waiting longer for a buyer.
Because of job uncertainty (and no pension plan to build loyalty), many younger families think it risky to buy. If they rent, they can move on without problem. Plus families are smaller so no 4-5 BR houses really needed, property taxes are climbing, AND fewer people who can buy also. So the current houses will not appreciate as quickly.
That being said, I believe a home should be considered a purchase but not an investment and you should only buy what you need.
Hell, I offered our Hawaii house to all three kids, & all three grandkids, & not a one of them is interested in inheriting it! Go figure.
Why type of housing do they live in now? Did they offer any reasons why they aren't interested in your place?
omni
Hell, I offered our Hawaii house to all three kids, & all three grandkids, & not a one of them is interested in inheriting it! Go figure.
I'll be glad to inherit it. :-D
Actually, if they don't live in HI, it's probably a smart move. Maintaining it from a distance would be very difficult.
I am assuming it has appreciated more than 250K since you bought it. So the best thing would be just to hang onto it and then after you die, have your executor sell the house and split the money (not sure if taxes on the sale would be due) or pass the title to the one who is the most financially astute (cost basis reset) and then they can sell it as his part of the inheriitance.
GaryM
Confused about dryer sheets
Don't forget peak oil and the deepwater horizon killed everything in the gulf.
As a Florida resident living only a few miles from the beach I can firmly state the beaches are the same place they were decades ago. I think I will just wait and see how these latest world ending catastrophes work out before I panic.
As a Florida resident living only a few miles from the beach I can firmly state the beaches are the same place they were decades ago. I think I will just wait and see how these latest world ending catastrophes work out before I panic.
aja8888
Moderator Emeritus
We (U.S.) haven't reached peak oil yet.
And what does your post have to do with the topic of the thread?
troutnut1
Recycles dryer sheets
Will you be shorting houses?
In 1972 I bought a nice new condo in southern California for $17,990. My father said I was crazy to pay so much for what he considered an apartment. I sold it a year and a half later for $32,500. Then bought and sold it two more times that decade making money each time. Recently it sold for $450,000 and its almost 50 years old.
Now part of this was the area becoming more sought after. Traditional appreciation. But a lot of it was that our government has been playing funny business with our money in those decades. Gas was 35 cents then too. Our monetary system added a zero and moved the comma when nobody was looking. I don’t see that stopping anytime soon.
Supply and demand is only one part of the equation. My lifelong career was in real estate appraisal. The only two things I know for sure is that you can’t time the stock market, and you can predict when future real estate crashes will happen. I won’t be shorting houses anytime soon.
In 1972 I bought a nice new condo in southern California for $17,990. My father said I was crazy to pay so much for what he considered an apartment. I sold it a year and a half later for $32,500. Then bought and sold it two more times that decade making money each time. Recently it sold for $450,000 and its almost 50 years old.
Now part of this was the area becoming more sought after. Traditional appreciation. But a lot of it was that our government has been playing funny business with our money in those decades. Gas was 35 cents then too. Our monetary system added a zero and moved the comma when nobody was looking. I don’t see that stopping anytime soon.
Supply and demand is only one part of the equation. My lifelong career was in real estate appraisal. The only two things I know for sure is that you can’t time the stock market, and you can predict when future real estate crashes will happen. I won’t be shorting houses anytime soon.
GaryM
Confused about dryer sheets
Simply more predicted disasters that never came to pass. I believe this kind of thing was mentioned in prior posts.
Retired Expat
Full time employment: Posting here.
All will depend where you live. I think 55+ communities and areas like southern Florida and other retirement havens will see it. Growing areas with businesses not so much. Housing starts may slow as well.
Well 7 bedrooms is a bit much! But the usual logic is that if you can afford it, then the assumption is that the greater appreciation will mean more for the kids, while you enjoy whatever it is. I agree that 55+ dedicated communities are seen a lot of build and price increase fueled by current demand, much like the CCRCs are for the leading boomer wave. Then there will be a glut, and they will be repurposed at lower prices.
We upsized from out last home, but that was mainly because we felt cramped going from 4000sqft to 2000sqft, and wasn’t as happy with the city location & floor plan (as we had counted on) and felt downsized too much, without the actual gains in lower taxes and utilities we thought would be there, even after “modernizing” it. And we got tired of time wasting yard work and road and community noise. We stayed there for 12 years, and thankfully the appreciation of that locale was good (paid 385 sold for 600). For retirement, so far, 3000sqft 2 miles away in the county feels much better, and a new build 3 story townhouse is far quieter & has taxes, utilites plus HOA that is much less what we were paying and the stairs are exercise when we want, but there is a residential elevator for when we need it. 2 large and 2 small bedrooms with one on the ground floor for my mancave, and DW finally got the walk-in clothes closet and grand comfy bath she always wanted. The 2 car garage is a bit cramped (only 21x21), ut still workable. The place is built out and there is a waiting list for people wanting to buy. $50k appreciation in one year. (Of course it’s only real if you sell).
So for many, like us, the choice of housing was to both make money and save money, so that when se did retire, we would get what we wanted. The problem is, what you think you want and then decide you need as you age, change (having a “fun” yard & garden, both veggie & flowers was near top of the list. Not so any more. DW is saying (again) this is the last home. I am more realistic and think possible, but not likely. But I’m enjoying all the extra free time I have in the meantime.
We upsized from out last home, but that was mainly because we felt cramped going from 4000sqft to 2000sqft, and wasn’t as happy with the city location & floor plan (as we had counted on) and felt downsized too much, without the actual gains in lower taxes and utilities we thought would be there, even after “modernizing” it. And we got tired of time wasting yard work and road and community noise. We stayed there for 12 years, and thankfully the appreciation of that locale was good (paid 385 sold for 600). For retirement, so far, 3000sqft 2 miles away in the county feels much better, and a new build 3 story townhouse is far quieter & has taxes, utilites plus HOA that is much less what we were paying and the stairs are exercise when we want, but there is a residential elevator for when we need it. 2 large and 2 small bedrooms with one on the ground floor for my mancave, and DW finally got the walk-in clothes closet and grand comfy bath she always wanted. The 2 car garage is a bit cramped (only 21x21), ut still workable. The place is built out and there is a waiting list for people wanting to buy. $50k appreciation in one year. (Of course it’s only real if you sell).
So for many, like us, the choice of housing was to both make money and save money, so that when se did retire, we would get what we wanted. The problem is, what you think you want and then decide you need as you age, change (having a “fun” yard & garden, both veggie & flowers was near top of the list. Not so any more. DW is saying (again) this is the last home. I am more realistic and think possible, but not likely. But I’m enjoying all the extra free time I have in the meantime.
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