Anyone Buying Into Today's Dip?

[SecondCor521]

I'll thank you if the market is up tomorrow.

OP here, you're welcome!

Thank you!

 

[marko]

Thank you!

 

[Montecfo]

I bought some bank and nat gas stocks adding to existing positions.

Sold DLTR after a good quick runup.

 

[marko]

Thank you!

4pm. You can take it back. ?

 

[SecondCor521]

4pm. You can take it back. ?

Heh. I was trying to decide about half an hour ago if I wanted to do more conversions today or not. Also thought about rebalancing. Got lazy and did neither.

No worries, it wasn't your fault.

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

Thank you!

Well, this hadn't aged well.

 

[COcheesehead]

I still have fresh recollections of December 2018.

 

[aja8888]

Its all noise.

Computers are programmed to pull it down and when capitulation sets in, start buying it back. Just like old times again.

Plus, MF managers need a bit more profit to pump up their 2021 bonuses.

 

[NW-Bound]

I still have fresh recollections of December 2018.

Yes. I remember that too.

That year, Santa gave all of us a lump of coal in our stocking. The Dow ended up at the lowest point on Dec 24, down -19% compared to early October 2018.

Will this year be a repeat? Heh heh heh...

 

[Dash man]

Yesterday DW converted $100k into her Roth. We reinvested it into SCHB and SCHA, then the market turned south! Oh well…should have procrastinated.

 

[SecondCor521]

Well, this hadn't aged well.

Nope. But this did:

Thanks to this thread, I went ahead and did about half of my Roth conversion for the year. Typically I do this too soon, so for those of you relying on me for market timing signals, the market should drop further based on my actions.

(You're all very welcome.)

 

[Sunset]

Days like that are great for swing traders due to the high volatility. My significant other made over $6k in two hours doing that yesterday. I haven't got the nerve myself but she has an iron will and best yet understands the zen of the trading.

The markets are weird and there are so many things in a state of flux that are destabilizing it is best to stay cash at the end of the market day until it sorts out if that ever happens. One possible example is a war with Russia over Ukraine and its insane policies seem to be the most potentially destabilizing and this is a serious problem that will directly affect both European and US oil supplies. The US is importing roughly 30% of its oil needs from Russia and if they cut us out prices will go nuts. China and Taiwan would also be terrrible and both simultaneously impossible to comprehend.

That number seems far too high.

I look it up and only see 7% from Russia.
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/imports-and-exports.php

Canada supplies 52% of total petroleum and 61% of crude oil imports to USA (2020).
Canada has a huge supply and can supply more.

 

[OverThinkMuch]

Some stocks fell 10% Thursday, so I bought those. I expect a tough ride for high growth stocks for a year or so, as higher interest rates discount their future growth more aggressively. But beyond the short term, I expect my recent buying to do well.

The US is importing roughly 30% of its oil needs from Russia and if they cut us out prices will go nuts.

Another poster corrected the percentage, I want to add that this is not how oil prices work. Oil is a commodity - if Russia stops selling to the U.S., the U.S. buys oil for the same price from somewhere else. The biggest factors with oil prices are OPEC, OPEC+ and demand.

 

[Dash man]

I just converted some more tIRA money into my Roth account. We are now at the top of the 24% bracket. Now I have to gather some cash to pay a big tax bill by January 15.

 

[aja8888]

Some stocks fell 10% Thursday, so I bought those. I expect a tough ride for high growth stocks for a year or so, as higher interest rates discount their future growth more aggressively. But beyond the short term, I expect my recent buying to do well.



Another poster corrected the percentage, I want to add that this is not how oil prices work. Oil is a commodity - if Russia stops selling to the U.S., the U.S. buys oil for the same price from somewhere else. The biggest factors with oil prices are OPEC, OPEC+ and demand.

Crude oil trading is all done through brokers. The U.S. Companies that buy crude oil usually buy from 20 different countries depending on price and availability.

 

[flyingaway]

That number seems far too high.

I look it up and only see 7% from Russia.
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/imports-and-exports.php

Canada supplies 52% of total petroleum and 61% of crude oil imports to USA (2020).
Canada has a huge supply and can supply more.

I thought that the U.S. has been energy independent or even an exporter since the fracking days.

 

[aja8888]

I thought that the U.S. has been energy independent or even an exporter since the fracking days.

All of the above. We do export some crude, lots of diesel fuel and liquid natural gas. We also import crude and some refined products. It's a global business with many, many players.

Generally, long term contacts on price and delivery are made by companies and many of these have to do with location and certain grades of crude. Not all refineries can process the many grades of crude oil extracted and refineries generally produce various grades and qualities of products.

For example, Chevron is a U.S. based company but most of it's operations are not in the U.S. Also, there are thousands of hydrocarbon based companies worldwide. It's a huge business envelope.

 

[NW-Bound]

Ugh...

I just counted the put options that are still open, and if they all get assigned will cause my cash stash to decrease by $108k. I think that's enough for now. I don't think I will buy more shares, or sell more puts.

Things may get interesting, not just because of the omicron variant but also the market has been overextended. Gotta preserve my cash until the high-P/E and non-E stocks come crashing down. If that happens, the effect will spread to other "innocent" stocks, which I already hold.

Dang, I think I might have put some cash back into the market a bit too early with the puts.

And if the market miraculously goes up, that's fine with me too. My stock AA is still at more than 60% currently, and it's not like I will be missing out.

A week went by fast.

I took advantage of the market bounces earlier in the week to close out quite a few of the outstanding put options with some gains.

Usually, I just wait for the put options to expire, either worthless or assigned as it may. But with this treacherous market, I have learned to grab and run.

I still have to add up the ones that will get assigned today, but it is still about a bit more than 1/2 of the $108k that I thought I would have to buy in the above post.

Anybody here still feels like buying? There's still 1 hour left. Buy, buy, buy?

As mentioned, I will be forced to buy some already via put assignments, so am not taking on more risk.

 

[COcheesehead]

When we get volatility like this, my experience has been more downside to come.

 

[Car-Guy]

Anybody here still feels like buying? There's still 1 hour left. Buy, buy, buy?

I bought and sold more this week than I have another other week so far this year.... Mostly energy but some high tech in the mix. I will be buying more today before the market closes.

 

[NW-Bound]

When we get volatility like this, my experience has been more downside to come.

Yes. It's not that there will not be up days. However, it's 1 step forward, and 2 steps backward.

I am going to tread very carefully here.


PS. Tech stocks and high-flyers got hit today, such as Tesla, Nvidia, Facebook, Netflix, etc... Defensive stocks such as consumer staples, telecoms, and utilities are in the green.

 

[foxfirev5]

When we get volatility like this, my experience has been more downside to come.

Mine too. Anyway I'm not prone to make big moves. I bought a measured amount starting in March 2020. While my plan fell short with the quick recovery I will still use the same incremental approach in the future. Of course this still must stay within my gradual rising equity glide path.

 

[aja8888]

I still think a lot of the street action is mutual fund companies loading up on profits before the end of the year to solidify gains and keep bonuses intact. Plus some tax loss selling.

 

[flyingaway]

When we get volatility like this, my experience has been more downside to come.

What about the Santa Claus rally?

 

[Car-Guy]

What about the Santa Claus rally?

I just bought a good chuck more... I hope Santa doesn't have any supply chain issues getting me the "gains" I'm asking for.