Here a recent thread (The coming tax increases) and some articles in the financial media have me thinking ... how likely is a recession in 2008? Let's look at the facts, or more precisely, my unproven assertions
The near-certainty of a Democratic President and Congress beginning in 2009. Increases the chances of tax hikes and other stupid stuff beginning in January 2009. The traditional "goose the money supply" trick the FED uses in election years would seem to have no point for 2008.
The housing market is clearly on the skids, and likely to continue well into the future. Add compounding effects (increased defaults on mortgages, foreclosures, unemployment in the industries, etc.), and idiotic government band-aid measures, stir gently, and let rise...
The markets, amazingly, are still near all time (nominal) highs...for how much longer?
Just the prospect of tax hikes alone would seem to give weight to a sell off sometime in 2008.
Any ideas?
The near-certainty of a Democratic President and Congress beginning in 2009. Increases the chances of tax hikes and other stupid stuff beginning in January 2009. The traditional "goose the money supply" trick the FED uses in election years would seem to have no point for 2008.
The housing market is clearly on the skids, and likely to continue well into the future. Add compounding effects (increased defaults on mortgages, foreclosures, unemployment in the industries, etc.), and idiotic government band-aid measures, stir gently, and let rise...
The markets, amazingly, are still near all time (nominal) highs...for how much longer?
Just the prospect of tax hikes alone would seem to give weight to a sell off sometime in 2008.
Any ideas?