riskadverse
Full time employment: Posting here.
- Joined
- Oct 21, 2002
- Messages
- 717
New poster. 30, on my way to my goals
I'm not in the S&P or any major index. I subscribe to the idea that the late 90's were a once in a lifetime boom, stocks got ridiculously overpriced, and it's going to take a long time to work the excesses of.
Same cycle as, late 20's to early 50's. And mid, late 60's, to the early 80's. When the public buys big, unfortunately everyone loses
I read books like Money Game (great book about the market of the 60's, reocmmended by Buffett and others). Its saved me a lot of money, the market isnt what it seems.
Also, I think we're in a commodity up cycle (Jim Rogers), of 10-15-20 years, starting in 99. Not good for stocks.
I'm not touching the big cap names (msft, etc). The banks and financials are way out of my competence level, although would be fun to guess.
I use to believe in p/e and other published figures and numbers. They dont tell you about stocks or whats going on. They wouldn't have told you about lehman's balance sheet or fnm's balance sheet.
I think we're getting close to a tradable rally (you should generally buy when guys are white with fear on tv). But I still think we're in the 4th or 5th inning of working off the 90's excesses.
I couldn't have said it better. I'll read the Money Game on your recommendation. Welcome to the early-retirement board. My guess is you'll accomplish your goals pretty quickly.