Heading under 10,000 on the way!

No that wasn't me...

How about 8500 by the end of the month...
 
Steve O said:
How about 8500 by the end of the month...
Click to expand...

Awesome! Eight trading days left to drop a touch over 2000 points. An average drop of 250 points a day for eight days straight. It COULD happen... :D
 
Just hope we do not "get" to rebalance at 6500 after 8500. :hide:
 
Well, I have been building cash reserves for months. I moved a chunk of that cash to Vanguard yesterday so that I am ready to jump on bargains (who knows, SteveO might be right). According to something I read on Fortune yesterday, the S&P would have to drop below 800 to bring the market's P/E and dividend yield back to historical averages.

http://money.cnn.com/2010/05/17/magazines/fortune/2010.crash.1987.again.fortune/index.htm

I am currently 48% stocks and 52% bonds+cash. If the S&P500 falls below 800, my IPS says that my target equity allocation would rise to roughly 70%.
 
Man, I have been at 70+% in equities, and feel "out of ammo" if the market keeps dropping. :blush:

Nah! My bet is that this is just a little blip. US economy is still recovering. Same with Asia. Not some European countries though. I may need to pay them a visit to help them by spending my meager tourist expenses there. Oops, forgot about those Molotov cocktail bombs. :nonono:
 
I'm definitely planning to go to Europe to help their economies. Particularly Spain - it needs extra help, right? Hopefully next year some time.

Audrey
 
Why not this year? We enjoyed our Spain trip a few years ago. We flew into Barcelona and out of Madrid. In between these two end points, we traveled by train to Montserrat, Valencia, Segovia, Sevilla, and Toledo. Food and lodging were less expensive than other European countries as I remember. Spanish people are very hospitable, and we have been heartily recommending Spain as a country to visit to all our friends and relatives. We may come back in a few years to visit other corners of the country that we missed.
 
NW-Bound said:
Why not this year? We enjoyed our Spain trip a few years ago. We flew into Barcelona and out of Madrid. In between these two end points, we traveled by train to Montserrat, Valencia, Segovia, Sevilla, and Toledo. Food and lodging were less expensive than other European countries as I remember. Spanish people are very hospitable, and we have been heartily recommending Spain as a country to visit to all our friends and relatives. We may come back in a few years to visit other corners of the country that we missed.
Click to expand...
Because I have my hands full with our new house right now and will also this fall after a short summer break when we travel in the RV. And who knows we might be doing a quick trip to Holland this late summer although chances of that seem to be diminishing.

Audrey
 
We do not do "quick trips". For all those miserable hours suffering inside the plane, it has to be 2 weeks or more to make it worth our while. :) It's not like we have a job to go back to.:cool:

PS. Argh! Portfolio down another 1.21%. The way it's goin', I am not sure that I will have money for gas to take my RV to Alaska, leave alone Europe. The Greeks will have to fend for themselves, as I may not be able to help.:banghead:
 
NW-Bound said:
Man, I have been at 70+% in equities, and feel "out of ammo" if the market keeps dropping. :blush:

Nah! My bet is that this is just a little blip. US economy is still recovering. Same with Asia. Not some European countries though. I may need to pay them a visit to help them by spending my meager tourist expenses there. Oops, forgot about those Molotov cocktail bombs. :nonono:
Click to expand...

I've watched many bloomberg videos on youtube, where people say that most of europe is recovering. Also they have been pretty unanimous for a while that the US and Emerging Markets are in a recovery.

As far as the Europe VGK etf that I have been buying goes, Greece stocks make up less than 1% of the index. Ireland is equally tiny and I think if memory serves that Spain and Italy were only around 5% each. So perhaps only 12% of the index is in "bad" countries. However, the index is composed of huge multinationals, most of which get less than 50% of their revenue from Europe. So, even if the multinational is based in a "bad" country I wonder if it matter that much.

I think right now is the time to go on a European vacation... and to buy European stocks. The general mood is so pessimistic on Europe you would think they were currently engaged in world war 2.
 
Steve O said:
This guy has been right for a while now...

A Conversation With Robert Prechter | Specials | Minyanville.com
Click to expand...


You mean this guy . . .

His long-term track record from his newsletter calls has been poor. Using data from newsletter tracker Mark Hulbert, syndicated columnist Eric Tyson showed that Prechter has underperformed the broad market averages by 25 percent per year since 1985, and that $100,000 invested according to Prechter's trading advice in 1985 would be worth a mere $1,700 by May 2009.
Click to expand...
 
Well maybe Stev meant he has been right for a while now, if by 'right' you mean 'wrong' ;)
 
"However, he properly called the October 2007 top and then called the March 9, 2009, stock market bottom in February 2009. Prechter expects equities to tumble again in 2010 in a crash larger than the 1929-1932 crash."

Well I just happen to share his views...

Even if Id never heard of him it doesn't take a genius to see that this whole rally was built on hope and fraud;)

This market is looking for any reason it can to go lower.

Maybe the boyz in Detroit and Chicago can show them wimpy Euro's how to riot proper:LOL:

When there's blood on the streets I'll start buying:greetings10:
 
The trend is changing. The market is run on computers, technical programing and manipulation ran it up.

Fundamentals were ignored...

The question is if we drop lower than key support levels how will the trade bots act:confused:

The programming is based on Elliot wave Dow theory ect...

Dow Theory - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Disregarding all that, the fundamentals suck...

How long will the market keep ignoring them?

Im betting not much longer.

The FEDS are out of ammo...
 
HP reported earnings yesterday. Sales up, profits up. Raised guidance. Same story as Intel a little while ago. Buy, buy, buy...
 
NW-Bound said:
We do not do "quick trips". For all those miserable hours suffering inside the plane, it has to be 2 weeks or more to make it worth our while. :) It's not like we have a job to go back to.:cool:
Click to expand...
Since retiring, 2 weeks IS a quick trip for us!

Audrey
 
Steve O said:
Well Dow Theory and Elliot wave says sell everything and short the market...

Dow 400:hide:

This guy has been right for a while now...

A Conversation With Robert Prechter | Specials | Minyanville.com

Looks like key support will be broken today and 1040 something S$P is next...
Click to expand...

Technical Analysis makes no sense to me. Why should I believe that the market will go up or down because it has a certain number of ups and downs, in the recent past? What I see when I watch a technical analysis video is that they are always drawing lines based on the previous week/month of data and saying that the line will continue. It is all based on graphs and extrapolating things from them.
 
audreyh1 said:
Since retiring, 2 weeks IS a quick trip for us!
Audrey
Click to expand...
Oohh, I like that!

As for ourselves, we actually started to miss home if it was much more than that. It remains to be seen if we can go for a month or longer with an RV.

But back on the market, Analog Devices (ADI) reported "kick-ass" earnings, also upped guidance. Buy, buy, buy... :dance:
 
70% of the trading is done by computers that are programmed to trade on technical analysis...

It's like a damn casino, not investing...

Having fun sitting around naked and shorting:ROFLMAO:

I have no idea where the markets going...

I just closed my shorts though... Too nice outside to sit around day trading;)
 
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