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    M2 money supply is shrinking

    It isn't that the shrinking money supply fuels inflation, it is meant to do the exact opposite. But the economy tends to be designed to go in only one direction. Looking at history, the money supply has gone negative in the past before, notably it last occurred in the Great Depression, and...
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    Two years in a row TurboTax has gotten me for an extra $25

    I use FreeTaxUSA, because my income is low enough for it to be free for both federal and local in any state. This year I moved and didn't realize they have separate exactly identical programs for their paid and free. So I got to the end of the usual one I use, got to local and they started...
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    According to history, the bear market is officially over as of 2/15/2023 [emoji322]

    Waiting for unemployment to spike, the thing that happens at the end of pretty much every bear market. Gray period happen, line go up at least 2%, then grey period end, well for a little bit, something like the 70's where the Fed waffled over and over dealing with stagflation caused by the...
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    What grocery stores in your town do you never go to?

    Just saw the thread, definitely Whole Foods stands out as a never go, despite it being practically next door all my working life. Absolutely never stands out on any item, even organic ones, as there are at least one or two other stores that have better prices for the same thing. Dollar stores...
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    ChatGPT

    Hmm, I'm surprised this hasn't been mentioned at all in this thread, but as mentioned earlier in the thread, Bard was introduced as an answer from Google, and it was shown in the press release that...Bard isn't able to answer simple questions correctly (e.g., it was a question about whether...
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    Bizarre spam texts

    I've received some dumb ones, but a similar one I received was along the along the lines of "Hey, Mary are you there?" or "Is this Mary." Then through my identity monitoring service I noticed someone randomly sold my name in conection with that number as "Mary" without me even responding once...
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    Pay to be younger!

    Just a sad fluff story. There is a long history of people ruining their lives because they fear their mortality. As for the question itself in an actually reasonable hypothetical scenario, I would pay a moderate amount to live longer, as long as it was a significant period. But if it only...
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    Expectations for the US economy

    Pretty sure this will get locked.
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    Big daddy State Farm is watching

    I remember starting out Geico just used an estimate, then asked me to send a form of what I actually drive if it is wrong (obviously it was way off). So, after doing that and confirming again it was way lower, my bills from then on were 30-40% less. These days they let you choose to use their...
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    Amazon "winding down" Smile (charity program)

    My charity was getting about $10k per quarter, it was just an individual animal shelter, apparently a lot of people selected them. This will probably be a fairly big drop for them. I enjoyed using the program for the decade+ I was on it.
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    Your Bucket List Disappointments

    Hmm, this might not strike a chord except for the younger nerdier subgroup, but I was hoping to play a really good MMORPG after I retired and had time to spends days straight in something fairly challenging with good end game that I could play weeks on end. These kinds of games were all over...
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    DQOTD: Why Can't I Do A Roth Conversion With An RMD?

    Kind of has been answered already, but to put it more simply, the RMD money is not in an IRA/retirement account anymore. So, there is no way to put the genie pack in the bottle so that you can do a conversion. You can use the other IRA money, or have earned income, and fill the IRA up to your...
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    Long term mutual funds much worse than benchmark

    Just FYI, #1 is practically certain to underperform. This is basically just another form of buy high, sell low. Each active fund has its own basket of favorite allocations, and will have slightly or greatly differing periods of highs and lows, simply because of what cycle the market is in...
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    My Son's Recent Gaming Computer Build

    Looks good. I'm glad prices went back to sane levels recently after over two years of insane prices that made custom building almost entirely not worth it, and caused a huge spike in stolen computers/graphic cards. I would be a little careful using an old mining card, mining maxes out the card...
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    How does this decline compare to previous recessionary ones?

    I'm leaning towards it continuing to follow a remarkably tight similarity to 2008, we are currently in the last big rally before that horrible plunge. I don't think the yield curve will recover before it happens. We are seeing an interest rate environment much more similar to the 70's and...
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    Chart of the Day

    Q4 is already looking to be above 60K, with most of the big QQQ's reports 10K+ cuts. Should finally see a bottoming out of the unemployment curve end of this year, with sharp rises each quarter in 2023. One of my indicators for a recession bottoming is this rate getting near the average for...
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    How are you liking Windows 11?

    Don't do it, I would go back to windows 10 if it wouldn't be a slightly bigger PITA setting everything back up again. It forces you to login or use a PIN every restart. Incompatible with a few programs that work perfectly fine on any older version (simulation mode is useless) and has some...
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    "It's like cheating"

    Just responding to the title, that would like saying leaving California or NYC is cheating for retirement. Give me a break.
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    Latest Inflation Numbers and Discussion

    I've seen the graph before. The problem is it just so happens to not include the early 80s, the late 70's, or early 70's, all of which involved hikes just as steep or much steeper than now. The problem is the sharp inflation rise we are seeing is eerily similar to the 1970's, not the late 80's...
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    Characterizing inflation

    Perhaps, keeping interest rates below inflation and printing a fairly significant amount of money for over a decade will no doubt create some pressure to trigger inflation spiking. But the real problem is it puts the fed in a position where it can only pump even more money when the next...
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    Is the realestate bubble bursting?

    I've held a sizable amount in an inverse housing fund since March, while these funds are forward looking, it indicates a drop of ~15-20% in the general real estate market. No doubt, we will see a flood of inventory in the near future in certain markets, and ripple effects elsewhere.
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    Latest Inflation Numbers and Discussion

    Yea, inflation will moderate around the same time we see unemployment shooting up, and with it, we will be able to see the light at the end of the tunnel. Not going to be pretty getting there, and pretty much everyone has no idea how long it is going to take to reach that point. Inflation...
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    Anyone use a VPN service?

    VPN's will cause some hiccups with some sites, because they are usually on well known server IP's, which are automatically flagged as questionable by some sites, requiring either an "are you human" test, or rarely, just locks you out (only saw this when I was using Pandora, which I dumped for...
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    Printer is not printing papers

    It has been awhile since I had a printer, maybe use one once every 5 years now, I just go to the library. From what I remember, the most common cause was running out of ink, or way way back, the ink cartridges dispensing area would need to be wiped clean due to solidified ink forming on them...
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    The Electric Vehicle Thread

    Tesla is trying to basically copy the Apple approach. No right to repair, all parts in house, all repairs in house, only their Apps through their store allowed, only their accessories work, and even their own chargers that will later require an adapter. This approach made Apple a lot of...
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