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  1. clifp

    Dave Ramsey rips the 4% rule again today.

    William Bernstein (who's written on retirement issues also) book "The birth of plenty" traced the growth of the marketplace from the Middle Ages to modern day. One of his main points is that American system of credit not only for mortgages, but credit cards, student loans is actually one of the...
  2. clifp

    Space - The Final Frontier

    I get why people don't like Elon. But I'm hard to pressed to think of any evidence that the SpaceX team isn't doing enough engineering. Falcon 9 has 99.3% success rate, that is better than any rocket system ever developed, except for the Saturn V, but there were only 13 Saturn V, vs the over...
  3. clifp

    Rise of the Secretly 'Overemployed'

    When I first heard about this a few years ago, I was somewhat outraged, but I've come around. The specific example that I heard about went something like this. I read the story on Reddit a couple of years ago, so many details are sketchy. A programmer got a job to automate a very large legal...
  4. clifp

    For old-timers on ER.org

    Unfortunately, it has, which is why my posting, and lurking have dropped significantly in the last ten years. In reading the list of those of who moved on, I can honestly say that I appreciated every one of their contributions. Sure some could be obnoxious, and arrogant at times. Still, I...
  5. clifp

    For old-timers on ER.org

    I remember Gumby from the MF boards, what was your login? I think mind was ClifP but I'm not really sure. It was really valuable resource, since I think I retired the year after Trinity study was published. I know that forum that introduced me to the 4% SWR.
  6. clifp

    For old-timers on ER.org

    Nord's wife is no longer involved with Arizona Memorial, but he invited me to join the board, and I'm still a member of board of Pacific Historic Parks. I occasionally post about it. Although do more lurking than post on the ER boards. I miss Rich also, if IRRC he was in his 60s or 70s when...
  7. clifp

    Dave Ramsey rips the 4% rule again today.

    My definition of financial failure in retirement is a broader than that. For most people, for most of their life money is a constants source of stress in their life, from the long-term question, how will I pay for the kids college, to short-term how will I pay for the unexpected $1,000 expense...
  8. clifp

    Dave Ramsey rips the 4% rule again today.

    A very nice analysis of Ramsey's rant. https://portfoliocharts.com/2023/11/10/why-dave-ramsey-is-dangerously-wrong-about-withdrawal-rates/ The interesting thing is that more than 1/2 of the retirement plans succeed with an 8% WR which is way higher than I would have guessed Ramsey does more...
  9. clifp

    Electric Vehicles - Models Discussion

    I was very happy with the Tesla service when I had my Model S for 7 years even though the last couple of years the S was in the shop a lot. In the bit over 2 years I’ve had the Model 3, I’ve only needed to go in the shop for a couple of minor issues, and the tech came to my house for one...
  10. clifp

    Stock Ratings

    I found Morningstar ratings to be moderately useful over the years. I know for a long time they were hyping the performance aspect of how you were better of buying 5 star stocks and selling 1 star, but they seemed to have backed off. On the other hand, despite being a 40-year customer of...
  11. clifp

    Spendthrift Heirs - What To Do?

    I'm not sure the OP is still checking the thread. I have had some recent experiences as the executor of my mom's estate. She left $25,000 for each of her 4 great-grandchildren (ages 17-22) to be used for their college education. The 3 kids from my niece were mostly homeschooled and they are...
  12. clifp

    Honolulu rail

    The english language is rich, but I've run out of adjectives to describe the project, and this forum bleeps out curse words. So I just say that It F*&%$&(##!() utterly and completely out of control. The project is at $11 billion and counting, wouldn't be surprised to see it eventually hit $15...
  13. clifp

    Fixed Income is hard..... do not know which way to go

    I'm sympathetic to your problem and there is no question that bond funds aren't the same as stock funds as you found out with BND. I avoid the problem of bonds by not currently owning it. However, I do chair the investment committee of non-profit, that has about $2.5 million bond portfolio...
  14. clifp

    Would you go to Hawaii right now?

    Our Senator just tweeted this. Brian Schatz @brianschatz · Maui update. South Maui resorts (Lahaina is West Maui) NEED visitors. Furloughs and layoffs starting because people think the whole island is closed. It is not. If you are planning a trip to Wailea or Kihei, don’t cancel. If you want...
  15. clifp

    Poll:Do you Own your home outright?

    Asset-based mortgages are more complicated if for no other reasons, than that most banks and mortgage brokers haven't done many/any and so the process takes longer. By the time I did my 3rd one, it was pretty straightforward. As ERD says sometimes less is more. My mortgage broker...
  16. clifp

    How many sources of income do you have?

    I'm proud of myself there was a shining penny on the ground, and I didn't pick it up, but my friend did. Although, when I dropped a quarter by a parking meter I spent a few moments searching for it.
  17. clifp

    Update on private equity investment

    They absolutely can be in retirement accounts. I've done scores of private equities/angel investments and have only once been asked to prove I have over $1 million in assets excluding my house. You can either have the assets, OR the income. Basically, it is all self-certification.
  18. clifp

    Would you buy this home in our situation?

    Thanks for sharing the deal, it was a beautiful property and had a lot of interesting parts. Even though, I have some real estate in Kansas City, MO. It still amazes me what a million dollars can buy in the heartland of the country. That barely gets you a 2 Bedroom Condo in Honolulu.
  19. clifp

    Poll:Do you Own your home outright?

    During the mid 2000, my house had no mortgage. However, once the Fed decided to launch it's war on savers, and reduced interest rates to near zero. I took out mortgages and kept, refinancing. My last one was $750,000 because that is the maximum you can get a tax deduction for, at 1.875% rate...
  20. clifp

    when is the best time to tell your boss that you are retiring?

    I think your relationship with your boss and the company is awfully important. My boss wasn't my best friend but still a good friend. My plan was to get a one-year leave of absence, as a trial early retirement. I don't think I could have gotten that without being very upfront many months in...
  21. clifp

    Proper ways to donate anonymously

    I've never had Schwab not donate to those I told them to donate to at the amount I suggested. Some like the Syrian White Helmets took a while to set up, but DAF exists to make donors happy. Now if you are trying to donate to your daughter's charity which funds your granddaughter's equestrian...
  22. clifp

    renters for life a question

    I've mostly owned, rented for a few years right out of college and for my first 4 years after retiring and moving to Hawaii. In general, I think people retiring early are better off owning, either outright or with a fixed mortgage than renting. But there is nothing that says you can't RE as a...
  23. clifp

    Depressing Thoughts about Retirement

    Agreed. For the first four years, after retirement. I tracked my spending carefully using Quicken and then in 2008 and 2009 during the great recession, but haven't bothered since. I'm super suspicious of folk who ask if can we retire, When the stories start this way. "We're 55, we make...
  24. clifp

    Depressing Thoughts about Retirement

    I think the first step is to really measure how much you are spending while working. In general, you'll have more time and more flexibility, so you can spend less, e.g. make your lunch rather than eat out, no commute, go to matinees, and travel during off-peak times. You'll also have more time...
  25. clifp

    Hi, FIRED. Not the good kind!

    I can't add much substantive advice, to the excellent and thorough advice you recieve. I will say that my friend got laid of in 2007 at exactly your age, with a bit less money in taxable accounts and under a million in a 401K. He did have a house though. His plan was to go back to work after a...
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