Avoid running out of money

Maybe this depends on your definition of the game. Someone who is only investing in high risk high growth potential stocks is definitely playing a game with their future. I would suggest that people using broad market index funds and a reasonable asset allocation were never playing the game to begin with.

With 30+ years of possible retirement, I'm still in the game.

According to FIRECalc a 100% equity allocation is as risky as a 40% equity allocation, each 92.8% success rate for the default 4% settings. I'm fine with 100%, but will adjust if the portfolio starts dropping too far. Same as if I was 40% equities. And the average ending portfolio is higher with 100% stocks. Safety in large numbers there. Also seems a shame to have the kids inherit a bunch of bonds/cash I've been holding for 30+ years.
 
With 30+ years of possible retirement, I'm still in the game.

According to FIRECalc a 100% equity allocation is as risky as a 40% equity allocation, each 92.8% success rate for the default 4% settings. I'm fine with 100%, but will adjust if the portfolio starts dropping too far. Same as if I was 40% equities. And the average ending portfolio is higher with 100% stocks. Safety in large numbers there. Also seems a shame to have the kids inherit a bunch of bonds/cash I've been holding for 30+ years.

I agree that 100% stocks should work if you have the fortitude to handle the market drops. I personally do not have that courage. I am currently about 95% stocks and plan to be at 75% at ER in about 10yrs.
I probably didn't do a very good job of making my point. What I was trying to say was that someone experiencing a loss like the one described must have been in some wildly risky and overvalued investments. In my opinion if that is how you are investing you a playing a serious "game" with your future.
Just out of curiosity are you strictly following the 4% rule now or do you have a lower WR any annuities or pensions?
 
You don't think that's an accurate assessment of your often expressed plans to eschew all investments other than annuities, municipal bonds and CD's for a 40+ year retirement horizon? Please point to any other forum members who have plans to retire in their 40's with similar investment plans.

JG? :hide: :angel::p
 
i have substantial amount in trprice 2020 fund.

I am 62.

trowprice tends to have higher percentatages of stocks in their lifrstyle funds

and keeps higher percentages of stocks even after they pass the date than their competitors.

i think thats a good thing
 
Interesting we never heard the husbands perspective ... some are in it for the GAME. He might be comfortable with his decisions.
 
i have substantial amount in trprice 2020 fund.

I am 62.

trowprice tends to have higher percentatages of stocks in their lifrstyle funds

and keeps higher percentages of stocks even after they pass the date than their competitors.

i think thats a good thing

TRP Retirement 2020 fund: 69% equities (US and foreign), ER= .70%
Vanguard Retirement 2025 fund: 70.9% equities (US and foreign), ER = .17%

Pick a target fund to match the allocation and "slope" you want, not your anticipated retirement date. (They don't actually check!)

If an investor's "substantial amount" is $100k, that's how he could save $530 per year with zero added risk. That's a lot of beer and pizza. Multiply as appropriate.
 
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I agree that 100% stocks should work if you have the fortitude to handle the market drops. I personally do not have that courage. I am currently about 95% stocks and plan to be at 75% at ER in about 10yrs.
I probably didn't do a very good job of making my point. What I was trying to say was that someone experiencing a loss like the one described must have been in some wildly risky and overvalued investments. In my opinion if that is how you are investing you a playing a serious "game" with your future.
Just out of curiosity are you strictly following the 4% rule now or do you have a lower WR any annuities or pensions?

No, I agree. It was just an opportunity to jump in.

I'm not strictly 4%. DW retires this year, we have 2x SS's kicking in, a small pension, kids graduating from college, and Roth conversions. We'll peak at something like 6% early and cruise at 3% for the majority of the time (excluding Roth conversion taxes). However, the basic plan is that the budget is fixed and gets CPI increases, which is sort of close to the 4% rule. Just the income sources are mixed up.
 
I think there are other very conservative investors around here. But I agree my case is non typical.
You don't think that's an accurate assessment of your often expressed plans to eschew all investments other than annuities, municipal bonds and CD's for a 40+ year retirement horizon? Please point to any other forum members who have plans to retire in their 40's with similar investment plans.
 
I am very comfortable around here. By the way, I have actually shared quite a lot about myself already over the last few weeks, including my NW, annual expenditures, planned annual withdrawals, etc.

Now what about YOUR numbers, ERD50 - when are you going to get comfortable enough about sharing your numbers? :) I am not being judgmental in any way :)

But I am curious, what is it about having your profile characterized as an 'outlier' that makes you 'uncomfortable'? I seem to recall that comment (heck, it might have even been from me, but I don't think so), and I saw it only as an observation, not judgmental in any way.

-ERD50
 
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Especially if you've got a pension or two. :)

Most of my close friends are retired military. Most of DW's close friends are active or retired teachers. Two pensions just seems like the norm to us.
 
I understand. But say you can FIRE with a comfortable income and zero probabality of failure. And if you work one more year you can add another $10k p.a , 2 years $20k+ , another 3 years $30k+

When do you say enough is enough, coz the extra $10k buys a great holiday $20k even better. $30 - first class all the way baby.

See what I mean
Not really. Firecalc or some other calculator saying 0% chance of failure does not bind the world to follow that script. The map is not the territory.

Besides, since when is it greed to work? Since when is it greed to prefer shopping at Whole Foods to Aldi's or Costco? Since when is it greed to prefer nice clothes? I am just a simple man, but I can sure see and value the difference bertweena $500 dress and an $80 dress.

This is some kindof Puritanism that overstretches the meaning of the word greed.

Ha
 
As I remember JG was mostly invested in GMAC bonds. I don't remember how that went down. Did those bonds take a haircut in the masterfull Obama save of the autoworkers' union?

I had some close calls back then too, but I have never considered myself any more committed to staying with a given investment when trouble appears than I would be committed to staying in a bar when people start breaking bottles and throwing chairs. So long, it's been grand! Really, it has, I mean that you guys...

Ha
 
Well there are some posters (like you, W2R, ziggy, FIREd, Braumeister, Rambler, Midpack,Alan, pb4uski, frayne, Nords, Sarah in SC, and a few others) with whom I would feel comfortable asking specific questions, sharing my income data, spreadsheets, working assumptions, the international taxation issues US/EU that I face etc.. This is a website I feel happy and privileged to be part of. However, I am a bit less comfortable sharing more real life, concrete data on this open forum. Especially after sharing some key data over the last few weeks and being told that my profile is quite an outlier... :)
Your discomfort is normal, and it's not realy about the numbers. Examples based on percentages are easy enough, or numbers rebased to 100. The Swedroe book is more about the concepts, such as including equities in a portfolio.
 
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A former member. :-X

Who shall remain nameless.....lol

I wasn't a forum member back then either, but I've gone back & read many of the old posts that pertained to this person, and looked him up on the net, etc. Some really funny stuff!
 
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I am very comfortable around here. By the way, I have actually shared quite a lot about myself already over the last few weeks, including my NW, annual expenditures, planned annual withdrawals, etc.

Now what about YOUR numbers, ERD50 - when are you going to get comfortable enough about sharing your numbers? :) I am not being judgmental in any way :)

When will I share my 'numbers'? I've never been shy about discussing strategies, concepts, AA, percentages, etc. I've posted all those ideas and numbers (far too?) many times. Though I don't think there is much to be gained by discussing absolute numbers, and it may even be a distraction, ill-advised, or considered rude by some (but not me, I don't care). If I saw actual numbers from you, I guess I forgot about them as that is not my interest, but I do recall some of the %'s you have posted.

But I'd be glad to summarize them here since you asked (and update my sig per Midpack's suggestion):

AA ~ 75/25 EQ/Fixed and 3-4 months in checking/savings for cash flow. The 75% is SPY, an allocation (50-50) of HiYield Bond funds, some International. I really don't obsess about these numbers, as FIRECALC shows similar historical success rates with AA ranging from ~ 40/60 to 95/5. Why split hairs? I actually calculated it the other day, I'm at 80/20. Might re-balance, might not. Yawn.

WR - shooting to keep it in low 3% range overall. It's not one number, it will vary over time. Presently I am not drawing a pension or SS, but DW went back to work part-time after the kids were grown, and is now working full time, part year. It's not a high paying job, but it does certainly cut the current WR. When she retires (I assume prior to age 65), we will have a period with no other income, pension, or SS, so the WR rate will tend to be higher for a time. Based on my view at that time, I will decide when to take pensions and SS. DW is also earning a small pension from her job, and has some SS.

Getting to ER - Retired end of 2003, currently age 58. Got a nice severance, almost two years. I have retiree health ins, but it's not cheap, about $1K/month. Since my pension is not COLA'd it won't mean much to me/DW. Adjusting for inflation (since the full value is only available at age 65) and for any survivor benefit options, it might cover ~ 1/4 of my annual expenses initially, and inflation will drop that going forward. SS in that ballpark, but that's inflation adjusted.

Worked up my NW by always maxing out my 401K, LBYM and saving/investing, and sweat equity in the houses I've owned. Made a significant amount buying bushels of AAPL right near the bottom in 1997 and trading/selling until it got to ~ $100. Oh to have held that to $500 plus! But that's not a regret, I did well, and it was time to take my profits and run. I do somewhat regret that I was not more aggressive in my 401K - I stayed in a balanced fund (50/50) and would have done far better in that 90's bull market with a higher AA, but that's OK. Have researched investments and have had a good understanding of the advantage of low cost index funds for a long time. Had a decent 28 year career as a tech/eng/engineering manager - did well, worked hard in a competitive business, but never hit what most people would call the 'big bucks'.

Oh, one of my primary ER motivators - early in my management career, I guess I was about 30, I was sent to represent our dept at a job fair, collect resumes and do a quick screening. All afternoon, there was a steady stream of 50-something guys that had been laid off from a large company - these guys had figured they had a job for life. Their skills were not what we needed, and the look on their faces as I handed their resumes back to them really made an impression on me. It was clear these guys needed that next paycheck. Almost like that scene from "Gone with the Wind", I swore I would never be 50 YO and totally dependent on my employer. And I wasn't. :)

My back-up plan was to take Keith Emerson's place in ELP, but I never practiced enough (or had enough talent). All other back-up plans are labelled 'look-learn-adapt'.

Still awake?

Anything else you would find helpful? Hair color, shoe size, favorite ice cream flavor, Ginger or Mary Ann?

Hmmm, I guess that won't fit in my sig, I'll have to work on some edits. :facepalm:

-ERD50
 
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