Beating Index SP500

[corn18]

Our condo investment in South Florida from the end of 2011 during the trough of the last Florida real estate market crash has outperformed the the S&P 500 by a longshot. The condo is up 688% since we bought it but only up 20% since 2008 when it was built and originally sold. We paid $72 per sq ft. but a unit similar to ours sold 8 months ago for $495 but does not have water views like we do. The original owner paid $410 per sq ft in 2008. There are two pending sales under contract right now and both were listed at over $600 per sq ft. The demand is extremely high for newer upscale condos in South Florida with very little inventory.

Did it do as well as the S&P500 from 2007-2010?

 

[FIREarly]

Anyone here actually beat SP500 return in the last 3 years? .. If so if you don't mind sharing your knowledge and choices of holding..

I am happy to pay a Financial Advisor or an Agency such as Edward Jones, Vanguard, or Fidelity if they can prove that the last 3 years they managed portfolios that actually beat the SP500.

My experience talking to these people folks are about "balance and diversify", invest not to lose... after said and done, it seems like they were suggesting us to similar index like SP500 + some less risky bonds and want 1% fee.

I have 100% of my investment in SP500 for now. I hope to retire in 2,3 years. Kids are finishing up college.

Please recommend me an agency that can have deliever such promise. Maybe I live in the fantasy land.

Enuff

Just buy the next big company that is going to transform society during it's IPO and you're good to go. That's it's.

Example companies include:
-invented the wheel
-created the internet
-made Earth (hahaha)
-and so on...

 

[Enuff2Eat]

Just buy the next big company that is going to transform society during it's IPO and you're good to go. That's it's.

Example companies include:
-invented the wheel
-created the internet
-made Earth (hahaha)
-and so on...

not sure if it is true anymore. You still want to buy Tesla? Facebook? it took Apple a long while to recover... "Big company" can vaporize too.

 

[NW-Bound]

^^^ Unless I am mistaken, FIREarly made a sarcastic recommendation to buy a young company based on its great promises, with the implied idea that one must bail out before the crowd realizes that the wonderful outlook is not at all certain, if not purely imaginative.

The obvious example is Theranos, although this company never got to the IPO stage.

 

[aja8888]

Just buy the next big company that is going to transform society during it's IPO and you're good to go. That's it's.

Example companies include:
-invented the wheel
-created the internet
-made Earth (hahaha)
-and so on...

Here's where some of these transforming companies are today:


The top components Renaissance IPO index and their collapse in percent from their highs:

Moderna [MRNA]: -62%
Snowflake [SNOW]: -29%
Uber [UBER]: -40%
Cloudflare [NET]: -57%
Zoom Video [ZM]: -73%
CrowdStrike [CRWD]: -42%
Datadog [DDOG]: -34%
Coinbase [COIN]: -48%
Palantir [PLTR]: -66%
BioNTech [BNTX]: -63%

Among the notable IPO stocks beyond the top 10 of the Renaissance IPO Index, with the collapse in percent from their highs:

Airbnb [ABNB]: -28%
Peloton [PTON]: -82%
Carvana [CVNA]: -57%
Chewy [CHWY]: -64%
Squarespace [SQSP]: -56%
DoorDash [DASH]: -50%
DraftKings [DKNG]: -70%
Unity Software : -43%

And some notable housing-related companies, and the collapse in percent from their highs:

Zillow [ZG]: -75%
Redfin [RDFN]: -68%
Compass [COMP]: -63%
Rocket Cos. [RKT]: -70%
Lemonade [LMND]: -81%
And our space SPAC:

Virgin Galactic [SPCE]: -85%

Our glorious EV SPACs have gotten wiped out wholesale. Here are some of the most prominent ones:

Lordstown Motors [RIDE]: -90%
Nikola [NKLA]: -90%
Lucid [LCID]: -40%
Rivian [RIVN]: -59%
Faraday Future Intelligent Electric [FFIE]: -75%
Workhorse [WKHS]: -91%

Even the online dating SPAC when online dating is hot:

Bumble [BMBL]: -63%

Fake-meat producer Beyond Meat, which IPOed in April 2019, today landed below its first-day close:

Beyond Meat [BYND]: -67%

Some of these winners are tracked by the ARK Innovation ETF [ARKK], which attempts to track “disruptive innovation,” which it defines as a “technologically enabled new product or service that potentially changes the way the world works” or at least it changed the way people’s money got disappeared:

Ark Innovation ETF [ARKK]: -52%

 

[NW-Bound]

^^^ Yes, the above decline of the stock prices is bleak, if measured from their high.


You are supposed to bail out at the high, not riding the stocks all the way down. You don't hold on for them to rocket up "to the moon".

It's the "sell high" part that's difficult to execute.

 

[aja8888]

^^^ Yes, the above decline of the stock prices are bleak, if measured from their high.


You are supposed to bail out at the high, not riding the stocks all the way down. You don't hold on for them to rocket up "to the moon".

It's the "sell high" part that's difficult to execute.

Recent (today) article on CNBC says that Peleton execs sold $500 million in stocks between late 2020 and 2021 at near the stock price highs: here's a snippet:

Much of the selling started when shares surged past $80 in the fall of 2020. The sales gained momentum in 2021 as the stock held above $100.

Looks like these guys unloaded just before it nosedived. But they had inside info, because they are the insiders.

 

[Magus]

You are right and I know it. OMY and I am out of there.

The reason for the semi loyalty is he helped me out of a habit of bad do it yourself investing habits that weren't working 25 years ago. He helped show me the way out, but now I can do better myself.

You paid him every year for his services and help since then. Why OMY?

 

[Magus]

Good post Aja - some of those will rebound and do well but many will just keep falling.

 

[OldShooter]

I think a logical conclusion from @aja8888's chest of horrors is that it is easy to select winners by looking in the rear view mirror; not so easy looking through the windshield. Which is why stock-picking doesn't work.