Buying the dip or….

Dipped a little deeper into the dry powder 10 mins ago. May dip out a little more later today/tomorrow.
 
I recently read a thread discussing whether 95% success on Firecalc was good enough to retire. Those people may be noticing that their 95% then may only be 90% or even less right now...

I know we all made way too much money in the last two years, so a correction was inevitable, but it is still unnerving. I felt a little anxious in March of 2020 when DJIA plummeted to below 20,000. Today, DJIA is around 33,000, less than 2 years later... That's pretty insane.
 
Fermion said:
Depends if the helicopter is going to drop money again. That changes everything.
Click to expand...

What money getting dropped?

People are worrying about bombs getting dropped in the Ukraine. :nonono:

The S&P is now in correction territory. Are we having fun yet?
 
I keep watching Vanda, kind of hoping it was going to participate in the massive biotech selloff and drop below cash on hand but it hasn't :(

Sometimes you get lucky though in these mass selloffs when funds just liquidate everything.
 
I don't keep any dry powder and instead have had the max in stocks. The fixed income I consider as safe money. So I don't plan on buying the dip.

Still I feel bad and nervous when the market sells off so relentlessly. What I have done to sooth my mind is to rerun VPW (spreadsheet program, see Bogleheads) and adjust to the current portfolio size. You can do something similar with Firecalc although the detailed results are more obscure.

Still shows me that for the worst period starting in 1966 with a minimum hit in 1975, that I have plenty of money to live nicely. That was a period with 2 bad recessions plus rising inflation. Going forward to 1982 which led to another portfolio minimum, I am still doing just fine with generous spending limits.

So if this were the start of a really bad sequence, I'm still just fine although I am sure it would not feel that way.
 
I guess it would be unfair to change my S&P500 prediction of 6000 in 2022?
 
Still no bargains. Nothing to buy yet. Bonds are still overpriced. Commodities are overpriced. Stocks are still in a bubble.
 
I just want to know how things are going to play out in overpriced real estate. Surely the lakefront properties that have gone up 500% in the past four years are not going to stay that lofty as money evaporates?
 
Got the first limit order triggered, that I set up back in October. Have a few more lined up if things keep dropping. I like keep orders lined up at my pre-determined intervals to remove the emotional aspect of a falling market. Sale time! We are still in accumulation mode so usually building cash reserves throughout the year...time to put some to work. :popcorn:
 
Retire2023 said:
Got the first limit order triggered, that I set up back in October. Have a few more lined up if things keep dropping. I like keep orders lined up at my pre-determined intervals to remove the emotional aspect of a falling market. Sale time! We are still in accumulation mode so usually building cash reserves throughout the year...time to put some to work. :popcorn:
Click to expand...

Thanks for the reminder on the limit order. I have one in for VZ for a couple of months now. I think it's at $48.00. I'll have to check.
 
Fermion said:
Yeah but a war in Ukraine drops us by 20% more at least.
Click to expand...

This drop has nothing to do with Ukraine and is totally being driven by high tech collapse that started well before any Ukraine talking. It is a liquidity driven event.

The market could drop 80% to 1200 and it would still only be around where it was 10 years ago. (stock market has reversed or nearly reversed 10 years of gains 3 times since 1937 or about once every 25 years) History shows those are very good times to buy - 1938, 1974, 2011. Of course we aren't "due" for this until about 2035, so maybe just keep buying that seems to work best.
 
Retire2023 said:
Got the first limit order triggered, that I set up back in October. Have a few more lined up if things keep dropping. I like keep orders lined up at my pre-determined intervals to remove the emotional aspect of a falling market. Sale time! We are still in accumulation mode so usually building cash reserves throughout the year...time to put some to work. :popcorn:
Click to expand...

Maybe people like you are tanking the market. :-X :D
 
It's different this time.
 
:p I like to think that when there is a dip, I'm buying at a discount. I also like to think that when I buy at a market high, historically speaking, I've been buying at a discount too. ;)
 
If you’re a market timer it might be a good time to do your Yosemite Sam bit and start firing your pistols.

If not you could take a nice nap.
 
Fermion said:
I just want to know how things are going to play out in overpriced real estate. Surely the lakefront properties that have gone up 500% in the past four years are not going to stay that lofty as money evaporates?
Click to expand...

I'm curious about that too. Was just looking this morning at several properties that are on the market for three times what they sold for just 6-8 years ago.

The only ones telling me that home prices will probably stabilize but won't drop are realtors and mortgage brokers.
 
Car-Guy said:
Dipped a little deeper into the dry powder 10 mins ago. May dip out a little more later today/tomorrow.
Click to expand...
Well I couldn't resist, I'm out again. ~2 and 1/2 point swing in ~4 hours on 2000 shares of GE....Not bad for a down day.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Brook2
Where did this investment advice come from?
Replies
2
Views
602
donheff
donheff
T
Selling stocks to buy house
Replies
19
Views
536
Sunset
Sunset
M
Investing extra money and possible recession 2024
Replies
6
Views
1K
DrRoy
DrRoy
2
Reducing stock exposure in Retirement, age 60+
4 5 6
Replies
144
Views
9K
Onda
O
S
Bonds Suc&k...
6 7 8
Replies
177
Views
11K
Out-to-Lunch
Out-to-Lunch

Latest posts

Back
Top Bottom