Changing World Age Demographics

[CaptTom]

Recently I read an article about the declining percentage of men in college. There was a comment about the problems of a future with lots of young, undereducated, underemployed, lonely men. Not a good thing.

(Steering this thread back toward reality...) Yeah, I've been wondering about this trend for quite a while now. The flip side of this may be that more women in positions of power may have a positive impact on society in general. Maybe their perspective will be beneficial for the challenges of the modern world. I have to admit that having mostly just men in power hasn't proven quite as effective as we might hope.

 

[JoeWras]

Recently I read an article about the declining percentage of men in college. There was a comment about the problems of a future with lots of young, undereducated, underemployed, lonely men. Not a good thing.

This is an underrated comment. The imbalance is getting very serious.

And it leads into...

(Steering this thread back toward reality...) Yeah, I've been wondering about this trend for quite a while now. The flip side of this may be that more women in positions of power may have a positive impact on society in general.

We'll see.

Personally, I think we need a balance of perspectives, which is probably what you are leaning to. I'm not saying we need all women in power, just like we don't need pure paternalism either.

 

[sengsational]

The books/show "The Expanse" had Earth society with a huge swath of the population "on basic" meaning there's no job for them, even though they could and would work. A lot more to that story than this, but it's a common projection of where society might go. Because it is "logical", it will probably end up being wrong It's hard to predict things, especially about the future.

 

[Badger]

Nothing new here. This has been going on for a few decades. There was a flip in enrollment starting around 1980 where females started to outnumber males in college. To date women make up about 57% of the enrollment. They also outnumber men in completion of a 4 year college program.

Cheers!

 

[Gumby]

Some data for support:

In the 2018-19 school year, women received 61% of associates degrees, 57% of bachelors degrees, 61% of masters degrees and 54% of doctorates. And women are more likely than men to hold a bachelor's degree for every age bracket except those born before 1955.

Source: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/...n received,master's degree, relative to women.

Also see this NYT article for some of the ramifications

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/23/...e_code=1.C00.LtpA.wINLQwDAtUkU&smid=url-share

 

[JoeWras]

Also see this NYT article for some of the ramifications

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/23/...e_code=1.C00.LtpA.wINLQwDAtUkU&smid=url-share

Interesting read. Commenting on this part:

During the “I Love Lucy” era, marriage was often a bargain in which a husband provided his wife with a steady income; in exchange, she oversaw the domestic sphere, providing meals, child care and a clean house.

Last night DW and I were watching a 1972 version of "The Price is Right." Somebody won a "Lady Kenmore" dishwasher.

DW looks at me and says, "Holy cow, that's really offensive."

In today's world, yes. It was a product of the time. I doubt that brand name lasted much beyond 1972. The Internet can't agree. Some say 1976, others say 1999.

 

[Koolau]

Recently I read an article about the declining percentage of men in college. There was a comment about the problems of a future with lots of young, undereducated, underemployed, lonely men. Not a good thing.

I noticed the change when I was an instructor at my Alma Mater. Year to year, women began eclipsing men - at least in numbers. I've forgotten the stats, but it's way more than 50% female students now in most university programs. The efforts to increase female participation in university degrees has been very effective. No talk of doing the same for men who are now lagging. I sense that there is no urgency for such an effort. I agree that a whole generation of under educated males could be problematic.

 

[OldShooter]

... I sense that there is no urgency for such an effort. I agree that a whole generation of under educated males could be problematic.

Ignoring the male/female thing for a minute, we are encouraging all these kids to go to college based on current stats that people with college degrees make more money.

But where is it written that increasing the number of college graduates will proportionately increase the number of higher-paying jobs? What if the number of higher-paying jobs is unchanged or, because of a glut of applications, the pay for these jobs will actually go down?

 

[Koolau]

Ignoring the male/female thing for a minute, we are encouraging all these kids to go to college based on current stats that people with college degrees make more money.

But where is it written that increasing the number of college graduates will proportionately increase the number of higher-paying jobs? What if the number of higher-paying jobs is unchanged or, because of a glut of applications, the pay for these jobs will actually go down?

Yeah, my "Blue Collar" hero, Mike Rowe is a big believer in trade schools. I think we need more plumbers, electricians, iron/steel w*rkers, etc. That's where I see a real need now. We've got a lot of kids in universities. How about trade schools?? YMMVr

 

[OldShooter]

Yeah, my "Blue Collar" hero, Mike Rowe is a big believer in trade schools. I think we need more plumbers, electricians, iron/steel w*rkers, etc. That's where I see a real need now. We've got a lot of kids in universities. How about trade schools?? YMMVr

Oh, absolutely! It is the skilled trades and similar that are going to be making the big money. No whirring AI box can wire a factory or plumb a house. Barbering is never going to migrate to China.

It is people with no practical skills who will be serving Starbucks, arranging products on grocery store shelves, and holding the STOP/CAUTION signs on highways under construction.

Maybe 20 years ago a contractor friend told me he was advising his sons to go into plumbing or electrical work -- that's where the money was. Even then the plumbers in our rural area were billing $100/hour. Nothing I have seen in the subsequent decades has made me think he was wrong.

 

[Qs Laptop]

Ignoring the male/female thing for a minute, we are encouraging all these kids to go to college based on current stats that people with college degrees make more money.

But where is it written that increasing the number of college graduates will proportionately increase the number of higher-paying jobs? What if the number of higher-paying jobs is unchanged or, because of a glut of applications, the pay for these jobs will actually go down?

Getting a college degree going forward from the 2020's into the future will be the equivalent of getting a high school diploma was in the 1950's and 60's. Everybody was admonished to do it and eventually the vast majority of kids did it.

How valuable was a high school diploma in the 1980's and 90's? Not so much, certainly not as valuable as it once was. So it shall be with college 4 year degrees.

If everybody has one, what makes them valuable? (Yes, I understand that certain specialty degrees will always be valuable.)

 

[Gumby]

If general AI really takes off, a lot of people whose work does not require them to touch physical things other than a keyboard and a phone will very likely be out of a job in relatively short order.

 

[Walt34]

If general AI really takes off, a lot of people whose work does not require them to touch physical things other than a keyboard and a phone will very likely be out of a job in relatively short order.

That's been my thought for quite a while now. And although one doesn't hear much about wealthy plumbers, electricians, and bricklayers, one doesn't hear about any of them living under bridges either.

So essentially any job that requires "hands on" and cannot be outsourced overseas or done by AI or robots is going to be fairly secure for the foreseeable future.

 

[Qs Laptop]

 

[Walt34]

View attachment 47785

I've seen that before, it sums up the situation quite nicely.

 

[OldShooter]

... one doesn't hear much about wealthy plumbers, electricians, and bricklayers, one doesn't hear about any of them living under bridges either. ...

IIRC they figured prominently in "Millionaire Next Door."

 

[House Divided]

I do believe that AI, robotics / robots will be taking many jobs in the near future (clerical, assembly line, food service, truck / taxie drivers, ect). So as population goes down productivity will increase. Governments will have to figure out how to replace the taxes that those jobs would have generated.

 

[aja8888]

I do believe that AI, robotics / robots will be taking many jobs in the near future (clerical, assembly line, food service, truck / taxie drivers, ect). So as population goes down productivity will increase. Governments will have to figure out how to replace the taxes that those jobs would have generated.

I wonder how many government workers will be replaced by AI in some form? Then the gov will need less tax revenue.

 

[Sunset]

I wonder how many government workers will be replaced by AI in some form? Then the gov will need less tax revenue.

Until the machines start to break down and go in disability

 

[Music Lover]

I've seen that before, it sums up the situation quite nicely.

I know several people working in trades. They all do well.

Years ago many people thought robots would replace labour and they have to some extent. But now AI is replacing people who worked with a keyboard at a faster pace than anyone ever imagined.

Those jobs are gone and will never come back, but I'm pretty sure that a 25-year-old plumber or electrician will still have a job when they're 50.

 

[Koolau]

I wonder how many government workers will be replaced by AI in some form? Then the gov will need less tax revenue.

 

[ls99]

AI will not likely replace plumbers. Plugged sewers tend wreak havoc on all manner of intellectual behaviors, carbon or silicone based.

 

[olyveoil]

One study puts a long-term, planet-sustainable human population at 3 billion. Dropping back to that quantity, without a calamity, seems a long way off.

Same "study" as peak oil and all the other guilt-ridden BS

 

[olyveoil]

If you want to be freaked out by the potential demographics time-bomb, read "The Coming Generational Storm" by Laurence Kotlikoff and Scott Burns. Frightening. If you're worried about the "national debt" and SS running out of money (I am and you should be too) consider the coming MC time bomb which dwarfs national debt (and even SS) issues.

Returning you now...

MC = ??

 

[olyveoil]

True the human race has not advanced the last 2000 years, except for technology. As for population, it will ebb and flow with both human caused events and natural disasters. I believe the elites of the world are very concerned with population growth and have already implemented plans to curb population growth. After all, we minions are using up their precious resources every day(water, food, shelter)
Look at the seven wonders of world. Does anyone think these structures were build by human hands and tools alone. Before 2100 arrives we the human race will know that there are multiple other beings far more advanced than we are in the universe. They are the stewards of the universe and will guide our future.

Gotta know who these elites are and what ghastly plans they have. Don't tease us. Pony up.