China devalues, Stops Agriculture imports

[Mdlerth]

A tempest in a teapot

As usual, I'm riding the storm out. Since I'm not retired and still putting money into the market, I figure I'm buying on sale.

+1

So many of the posts on this forum come from seasoned veterans, either retired for a long time or experienced navigators who've successfully weathered many a market storm. I interpret their consensus on volatility as "this too shall pass".

 

[candrew]

More cowbell?

And MichaelB, really explore the space this time.

 

[imoldernu]

Thoughts on the farm economy? Not much said recently about the Chinese switch from the US to Brazil on soy beans among other commodities. The seasonal market is a moving proposition, and not just resolved by temporary storage.

So far, the national news is discussing the DOW, NASDAQ, and S&P. Whatever happens in the coming days, the longer term effects will come from individual stocks, and the place in the world economy. Were I in the market, my time would be spent in understanding the most volatile stocks. Going with the flow, would be last on my list.

When the dust initially settles, a look a the individual rates that exceed the standard deviation as a guideline.

 

[NW-Bound]

Yes, American farmers will not be too happy. The farmers cannot shrug and say that this shall pass.

But right now, looking at the Dow 30, hardest hit at the moment are Apple at -5.32%, and Visa at -5.44% just for today. The S&P is down -3.4% today, and -6% from its recent high.

... How to handle this?

All I can do personally is to tough it out. I already have lots of cash for 10 years of living expenses, and that is without SS.

I was writing yesterday that my WR is 2.7% for the trailing 12 months, and may be down to as low as 2% in the future years. Well, maybe not.

 

[cbo111]

I think China and her citizens are willing to withstand far more economic pain that our citizens are willing to endure. Especially with such a fuzzy understanding of what the tariff end-game is really about.

 

[Another Reader]

I think China and her citizens are willing to withstand far more economic pain that our citizens are willing to endure. Especially with such a fuzzy understanding of what the tariff end-game is really about.

My guess is the citizens have no say in the matter but the government leaders play a good game of chess with them as the pawns. There must be a significant oversupply of soybeans for a buyer to eliminate an entire country's production from their buy list.

 

[Midpack]

Yawn...

 

[pb4uski]

^^^ Exactly... I just took a nap and slept like a baby.

 

[Another Reader]

Yes, American farmers will not be too happy. The farmers cannot shrug and say that this shall pass.

But right now, looking at the Dow 30, hardest hit at the moment are Apple at -5.32%, and Visa at -5.44% just for today. The S&P is down -3.4% today, and -6% from its recent high.



All I can do personally is to tough it out. I already have lots of cash for 10 years of living expenses, and that is without SS.

I was writing yesterday that my WR is 2.7% for the trailing 12 months, and may be down to as low as 2% in the future years. Well, maybe not.

Yes, and I'm kind of happy now the market ended as low as it did last year, reducing my RMD's from the inherited IRA this year. Hate to pull money from a depreciating account, even though the cash is set aside to cover a few years of RMD's.

 

[easysurfer]

Let's see, my plan is to do any rebalancing at start of year.

Just looked at my calendar. Yep, still plan on doing any rebalancing at start of year .

 

[harley]

 

[mamadogmamacat]

Not doing a darn thing, other than blowing some dough on a car.
I was planning, anyway, on perhaps some buying in my play portfolio later in the month, but that's small potatoes, and i doubt any of this however long it lasts, will have much impact on me as i have 1) a pension that supports at least 50% of my spending, more if I cut back on non-essentials, which i will not do unless this goes on for many months.2) enough cash or cash equivalents on hand to last for at least another year, even with the car purchase.
I do apologize to investors everywhere if my late Sunday evening auto purchase caused this
On a more serious note, I agree with RedBadger that Hong Kong is more concerning.
Mainland China folks are sadly used to being killed/starved/purged en masse, and that goes back to even before the Communist takeover in 1949. Hong Kong not so much, they have a long history of a good measure of economic independence, going back to the first significant contacts with the British and other Europeans in the 1800's

 

[Spock]

Thoughts on the farm economy? Not much said recently about the Chinese switch from the US to Brazil on soy beans among other commodities. The seasonal market is a moving proposition, and not just resolved by temporary storage.

...

What is not in the media is the devastation in a big swath of the farm belt from flooding this spring. A record number of acres were planted late, which reduces yield. Lots of acres never got planted. Lots of stored grain from last years crop got flooded and then rotted.
From USDA, as of June 23 the amount of corn acreage rated "good to excellent" was 21 percentage point below last year.
China shutting down their imports will be atleast partially offset by the reduced crop production this year.
One article talks about crop failures in Australia. Another talks of record crops in Brazil this year.
Place your bets.

 

[NW-Bound]

What is not in the media is the devastation in a big swath of the farm belt from flooding this spring. A record number of acres were planted late, which reduces yield. Lots of acres never got planted. Lots of stored grain from last years crop got flooded and then rotted.
From USDA, as of June 23 the amount of corn acreage rated "good to excellent" was 21 percentage point below last year.
China shutting down their imports will be atleast partially offset by the reduced crop production this year.
One article talks about crop failures in Australia. Another talks of record crops in Brazil this year.
Place your bets.

It's good to have a silver lining. We may not have that much crop to sell to China anyway.

 

[Rianne]

Buy? Not yet.

 

[njhowie]

Might be a good time to plan a vacation to China.

 

[atmsmshr]

Sell? Not yet.

 

[freetodream]

I just got back from camping (which was a blessing with no internet); it looks like I need to go again!!

 

[foxfirev5]

Since my only moves are to take a little off the table at all time highs there's nothing for me to do.


Now the tariff thing ticks me off. Merely a tax on the US consumer. My only strategy is to minimize purchases of goods and blow my dough on experiences.

 

[mamadogmamacat]

I've only read two of his books from the library, don't have cable so i do not watch him at all, but i do use thestreet.com's info on company financial reports, as it is free to access.
I did see this quote from Cramer, today:

"Remember we are a domestic, service economy, not a big exporter, so it's not all that hard to find good stocks."

 

[Bir48die]

Already took my allocation for the year (until April 2020). I’ll worry about it then

 

[aboatguy]

https://youtu.be/cVsQLlk-T0s


Cowbell good!

 

[NW-Bound]

Might be a good time to plan a vacation to China.

I watched some videos posted by a Youtuber who lived in China. He described how the government propaganda machine occasionally whipped the citizenry into a frenzy against foreign foes, past and present. They have rioted and smashed stores selling Japanese goods, for example, even though the store are Chinese owned, while policemen stood and watched. China recently banned its citizens from traveling to Taiwan.

I would be hesitant to visit China right now.

 

[ESRwannabe]

I watched some videos posted by a Youtuber who lived in China. He described how the government propaganda machine occasionally whipped the citizenry into a frenzy against foreign foes, past and present. They have rioted and smashed stores selling Japanese goods, for example, even though the store are Chinese owned, while policemen stood and watched. China recently banned its citizens from traveling to Taiwan.

I would be hesitant to visit China right now.

Snyder: China Is Extremely Angry, And Now Considers The United States To Be Enemy #1

"Have relations between the United States and China finally reached the point of no return? At this moment, it would be difficult to overstate how angry the Chinese are with the United States. "

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019...ry-and-now-considers-united-states-be-enemy-1

 

[gerntz]

Snyder: China Is Extremely Angry, And Now Considers The United States To Be Enemy #1

"Have relations between the United States and China finally reached the point of no return? At this moment, it would be difficult to overstate how angry the Chinese are with the United States. "

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019...ry-and-now-considers-united-states-be-enemy-1

When you say Chinese, you mean the government of China or the country's people?