Coronavirus - Health aspects

[SecondCor521]

Your guarantee was right. Based on chart it would be over 300,000 cases, according to this site the number of reported cases is 28,355.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The chart is assuming a geometric progression. My understanding is that populations in nature (possibly excepting humans, probably including viruses, but I'm no expert) don't follow geometric progressions. They follow another equation. See the following video for some wonky science:

 

[tmm99]

I would expect the mortality rate in China to be much higher than anywhere else, not only because China is the epicenter of the epidemic, but also because they lack adequate medical help/care available there, due to the overwhelming number of people being sick. I don't know how many patients each doctor is responsible for, but I cannot imagine any of the doctors being able to care for any patient thoroughly due to its number, and I bet they run out of drugs and med supplies all the time, as well as not having enough facilities to adequately house the patients.

For this reason, even if the China's mortality rate is reported very high, I don't think we could use the same mortality ratio to estimate/forecast the mortality rate in other countries.

My guess is that the mortality rate in "developed" countries from the coronavirus would be much lower, unless this virus spreads to the extent that the healthcare system cannot keep up, but until then, you would be much better off being sick in another country, like Canada, US, the UK, Japan, Korea, etc.

 

[Brat]

I agree but if this virus becomes rampant even in developed countries with good health care systems they too will be overwhelmed. Humans have no resistance to this infection so the % of the population getting sick will be very high. Set aside the lethality, a lot of people will get very sick.

I wonder what life insurance actuaries are forecasting. Have the rates changed? [maybe this question belongs in the financial forum]

The list of nations with poor health care systems is huge.

 

[brewer12345]

Ah ha! The old conspiracy theory. If these aren't right, the original numbers probably weren't right and either way the projection was flawed.

There is chaos on the ground in Wuhan. Insufficient everything, including test kit, and the gubmint only reports a confirmed case after 4 tests/steps have been completed. The authorities are padlocking people in their apartments and turning people away from hospitals. How much faith should we place on their reported numbers?

Africa has only a couple countries that can even run the tests. India likely is way behind on testing possible cases. Even in places like the US and Japan we have limited resources and only test if someone is showing symptoms and has a direct connection with China.

Want to go on a cruise?

 

[gwraigty]

There is chaos on the ground in Wuhan. Insufficient everything, including test kit, and the gubmint only reports a confirmed case after 4 tests/steps have been completed. The authorities are padlocking people in their apartments and turning people away from hospitals. How much faith should we place on their reported numbers?

Africa has only a couple countries that can even run the tests. India likely is way behind on testing possible cases. Even in places like the US and Japan we have limited resources and only test if someone is showing symptoms and has a direct connection with China.

Want to go on a cruise?

Not much faith. WHO wants US $675 million to help fight this over the next 3 months in the affected countries. Things will certainly be different in 3 months, but how?

 

[Running_Man]

Ah ha! The old conspiracy theory. If these aren't right, the original numbers probably weren't right and either way the projection was flawed.

And the man who started the reporting by saying many people in the hospital he worked were dying from the disease and officially sanctioned by the Chinese government has died. 20 passengers on one cruise ship have tested positive and 270 others have exhibited symptoms. Yet we are expected to believe there are only 234 cases outside China (28256 worldwide - 28018 in China) so under reporting seems to be the official policy at this point.



https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-diamond-princess-cruise-passengers-quarantined-in-japan/

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-update-565-deaths-more-than-28000-cases-worldwide-yum-china-reports-significant-interruption-2020-02-06

 

[MrsHaloFIRE]

U.S. citizens returning from China are currently being held in isolation at March ARB, MCAS Miramar, and Travis AFB to name a few.

We are expecting 250 on LAckland. All the local Det of Defense townhalls for military folks are holding the line of "they will be completely separate and apart from the rest of base" but everyone that has seen the base knows those hotel rooms open to the outside and are on the extreme perimeter of base. Statement I read this morning I think from HHS said essentially they are self quarantining, and "we have their name and addresses." Comforting. (not at all)

 

[brewer12345]

Not much faith. WHO wants US $675 million to help fight this over the next 3 months in the affected countries. Things will certainly be different in 3 months, but how?

I can predict with a high degree of certainly that the who will have spent all the money and be begging for more.

 

[Hamlet]

And the man who started the reporting by saying many people in the hospital he worked were dying from the disease and officially sanctioned by the Chinese government has died. 20 passengers on one cruise ship have tested positive and 270 others have exhibited symptoms. Yet we are expected to believe there are only 234 cases outside China (28256 worldwide - 28018 in China) so under reporting seems to be the official policy at this point.



https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-diamond-princess-cruise-passengers-quarantined-in-japan/

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-update-565-deaths-more-than-28000-cases-worldwide-yum-china-reports-significant-interruption-2020-02-06

There isn't a conspiracy to under-report. However, the numbers are almost certainly under-reported everywhere, simply because the vast majority of people showing flu symptoms are going to be assumed to have the flu unless there is a specific reason to suspect that they have this new coronavirus.

Are they testing the people who work at the airport food court when they call in sick with the flu? All airport employees? All cab drivers that go to and from the airport?

Since the symptoms seems to be extremely mild in a pretty large chunk of people infected, there are probably airport employees that didn't show symptoms that have passed it to people who seem completely unrelated to China at all. When those people get sick, they aren't going to be tested for coronavirus. Our medical system is going to assume that they have the flu.

My bet is that there are already 100s of US cases that have been mis-identified as the flu.

On the plus side, that means that it isn't particularly dangerous to most people who get it. On the minus side, if I am correct, we won't be able to contain it. It will get caught by millions and kill thousands. It will be another thing we stack on top of the regular flu.

 

[Tiger8693]

So we made sure the teaspoon of seawater we brought over the dyke is in a sealed cup even as we ignored the tide coming in through the gaping hole in said dyke. God only knows how many of million potential carriers came in/out of the US on commercial flights before we finally killed flights in and out of the affected areas. The minimal quarantine efforts are too little, too late.

Yes. The 12 cases ID'd in the US shows that we have grossly mismanaged this...

 

[brewer12345]

Yes. The 12 cases ID'd in the US shows that we have grossly mismanaged this...

It is too soon to know if our stupidity will bite us. Check back in a month.

 

[MrsHaloFIRE]

Just read a Dept of Defense press release. Theyve been asked by HHS to identify space on military bases near 11 major airports for additional capacity. ... Coming to a city near you.

 

[bobandsherry]

And the man who started the reporting by saying many people in the hospital he worked were dying from the disease and officially sanctioned by the Chinese government has died. 20 passengers on one cruise ship have tested positive and 270 others have exhibited symptoms. Yet we are expected to believe there are only 234 cases outside China (28256 worldwide - 28018 in China) so under reporting seems to be the official policy at this point.



https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-diamond-princess-cruise-passengers-quarantined-in-japan/

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-update-565-deaths-more-than-28000-cases-worldwide-yum-china-reports-significant-interruption-2020-02-06

Conspiracy theory type people might say that he was given a little help in his passing. Or more correctly, wasn't given the right help.

 

[bobandsherry]

For those who suspect under reporting by China, this may fuel that fire.

On late Saturday evening (Feb. 1), the Tencent webpage showed confirmed cases of the Wuhan virus in China as standing at 154,023, 10 times the official figure at the time. It listed the number of suspected cases as 79,808, four times the official figure.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594

 

[Nemo2]

"A floating prison"

https://apnews.com/11a8553519019fdbb3d67976ebc28674

It’s ending with him quarantined in his cabin aboard the Diamond Princess for two extra weeks, eating a “lettuce sandwich with some chicken inside” and watching 20 infected people escorted off the ship, heading for hospitals for treatment of a new virus.

 

[NW-Bound]

About the Diamond Princess being quarantined off Yokohama, another 41 passengers have tested positive for the virus, bringing the total to 61.

So far, only 273 have been tested, out of 3700 passengers and staff. Testing was initially carried out on those who displayed symptoms or had come into contact with the former passenger diagnosed with the virus.

Number of confirmed cases worldwide: 31,388

Number of death worldwide: 638, with 636 inside China, and 1 in the Philippines, and 1 in Hong Kong.

Regarding HK death, that's 1 out of 24 cases. This ratio is a lot higher than that reported inside China. The death rate inside China is most likely a lot higher, as well as the number of cases.

 

[brewer12345]

About the Diamond Princess being quarantined off Yokohama, another 41 passengers have tested positive for the virus, bringing the total to 61.

So far, only 273 have been tested, out of 3700 passengers and staff.

With how broadly stuff like norovirus can spread on a cruise ship, it should not be a shock that these things are basically floating petri dishes for coronavirus.

 

[NW-Bound]

Passengers are now ordered to stay inside their cabin, and food is brought to their door for 3 meals a day. If you don't have an outside cabin for a view, it's easy to go crazy being locked up for 2 weeks.

There's free WiFi for them to contact their family and to send out videos, and that's how some of them are interviewed on TV.

 

[NW-Bound]

Hong Kong, where another ship, the World Dream, is being quarantined, now has 24 confirmed cases on land.

Out of the 24 cases, at least 5 patients have not been to mainland China nor have had any known contact with people from mainland. Three of these 5 patients live in the same building in HK. These are among the first cases of distant infections.

A man in the UK who tests positive has not been to China either, but is suspected of catching it in Singapore.

Things will likely speed up from here, I am afraid.

 

[Nemo2]

In a nutshell..."We don't have a clue":

(Don't know why the link takes you to the end of the vid.)

 

[NW-Bound]

After Li Wenliang died, the 34-year-old Wuhan doctor who raised the alarm of the flu outbreak back in Dec 30, the outrage of the Chinese public was deafening and the Chinese government is now looking for scapegoats.

Li was hospitalized on January 12 and tested positive for the coronavirus on February 1. He died on Feb 7. Note the timeline.

Shortly after sending out a warning to his alumni group, he was found out by the police and made to recant his post, and to sign an admission that he made "false statements".

The central government announced that it "would send a special team to Wuhan, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, to investigate the circumstances around Dr. Li’s death." Of course, some heads will be rolled, and the public must be appeased.

 

[audreyh1]

I’m sure there have to be a new set of scapegoats found every week......

 

[audreyh1]

In a nutshell..."We don't have a clue":

I’m mostly watching what happens in the US as much overseas information seems useless.

 

[brewer12345]

Twitter video of the hospital admissions process in Wuhan:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1225674232719298560

 

[MichaelB]

I’m mostly watching what happens in the US as much overseas information seems useless.

The cruise ship in Japan is worth watching. It’s probably the best example of how the virus is growing in a controlled and contained environment. That, along with Germany, has more relevance to potential effects in the US.