Coronavirus - Health aspects

[tulak]

^^^ I suspect this will be a really bad flu in the end. And the first time around will probably be worse, but if this reoccurs next year, it probably won’t be as bad.

The problem is the uncertainty. We don’t know, so we get quarantines, etc, as a precaution.

Today was the first time I saw a non-Asian wearing a face mask (on the bus). She was younger too. Probably doesn’t realize that the odds are with her. Apparently, people are starting to pay more attention. It’s probably a good idea for me to stop taking the bus and start biking to work again.

I got back from a trip last night. I’m going to head to Costco tonight to stock up on some essentials.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

I have toyed with the idea of stacking TP floor to ceiling in my 16 foot trailer. A secret trove of white gold!

I have 3x36 count cases between my basement and the bathrooms. That's for two people in the house. In terms of "recent panic", I purchased one of those 36 packs...already had the other two as part of my normal setup...mostly because I forget when shopping that I already had a bunch.

Like a*mo, you simply can not have too much TP.

I've been doing shopping just about every day for various things. In today's run I picked up some cold and flu medicine, electrolytes, children's Ibuprofen, vitamin C. Except for the electrolyte solution, it is stuff that will likely be used anyway over the next couple years.

 

[NW-Bound]

The danger is when the virus gets into the lungs, like pneumonia...

The virus follows the bloodstream and always finds its way to the lungs. It is widely accepted that the virus enters human cells via their ACE2 receptors, which are abundant in the lungs, particularly lungs of smokers.

It should be then a matter of degree of sickness, and every infected person should feel something. Is there anybody with no ACE2 receptors (I know nothing about biology)?

Then, how can someone be a completely asymptomatic and oblivious carrier? It's a mystery to me.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

Nobody batted an eye at my purchase of 210 pounds of dog food at Costco on Tuesday. I suppose if you have a couple of giant breed dogs it might not be unusual. Now that the fear is spreading, large purchases might well start to be noticed. I don't have a whole lot more room to store stuff unless I fill the camper, so I will basically just be topping up until I ghost retail stores entirely.

This is "normal" behavior at Costco. I don't have one locally, but had a membership to one about 90 minutes from my home for a few years in an area I would occasionally visit. So, on the Costco run one time I got 10 of the 3 # coffee's (Kirkland 100% Colombian Decaf). It isn't the worlds best coffee, but is pretty decent, a great value and in a vacuum sealed can so it has a good shelf life. I also like one of the Jerky's Costco carried, and one time bought $150 worth of it (It was all eaten within six months).

 

[gwraigty]

Now that the fear is spreading, large purchases might well start to be noticed. I don't have a whole lot more room to store stuff unless I fill the camper, so I will basically just be topping up until I ghost retail stores entirely.

We have 4 adults in our household. I just started my stocking up about 11 days ago. I've been piling up my shopping cart as high as I can about twice a week. I'm not as prepared as I'd like to be, so I'll continue while it's still feasible. I usually cook from scratch, so my food focus has still been on fresh meats, frozen vegetables, and the sundries to make it all taste good. Next trip I intend to start focusing on more shelf-stable items, like canned fruits/vegetables, dried beans, rice, etc. I'll have to start filling up some basement shelving after my next shopping trip.

 

[Brat]

.. If the zombie apocalypse is upon us, I will also be going back to Costco for a pallet of toilet paper.

I ordered two packages of tp the other day, needed to add boxs of chocolate bars to get free shipping. I need to drive out to purchase a couple of cases of wine. If we don't survive this epidemic our friends and family have the start of a good party.

 

[TromboneAl]

When death rate is quoted, I think we need more information.

Always true.

We use death rate as a probability, for example: What's the probability that I will die if I get COVID19?

Probabilities are statements about our knowledge, not about reality. To illustrate (with made-up numbers):

Sixty-five year old: "What's the probability I'll die this year?"
Statistician: 1.58%
Sixty-five year old: "But I had a heart attack last year."
Statistician: 20%
Sixty-five year old: "But it was very mild, and I got a stent."
Statistician: 12%
Sixty-five year old: "But I was bitten by a rattlesnake 30 minutes ago."
Statistician: 40%

IOW, the probability of death from CV will change as we learn more.

 

[GenXguy]

I haven't stocked up on anything. I haven't retired yet, so I can't just hunker down and refrain from going out in public, anyway.

 

[Teacher Terry]

People over 60 with chronic conditions are dying the most. I would definitely self quarantine.

 

[LRDave]

I haven't stocked up on anything. I haven't retired yet, so I can't just hunker down and refrain from going out in public, anyway.

I'm a retired rural-living fellow and I have not stocked up on anything either.

 

[W2R]

Prepping W2R style

We have 4 adults in our household. I just started my stocking up about 11 days ago. I've been piling up my shopping cart as high as I can about twice a week. I'm not as prepared as I'd like to be, so I'll continue while it's still feasible. I usually cook from scratch, so my food focus has still been on fresh meats, frozen vegetables, and the sundries to make it all taste good. Next trip I intend to start focusing on more shelf-stable items, like canned fruits/vegetables, dried beans, rice, etc. I'll have to start filling up some basement shelving after my next shopping trip.

I've been focusing on canned soups, canned chicken breast, peanut butter, canned tuna, and salmon in those foil bags. Granted, canned foods are usually high in salt, but my BP does not seem to be affected by salt. Some of those Campbells Chunky Soups ("soups that eat like a meal!") are enough for two meals in just one can.

I have a half a dozen large jars of instant coffee (which I don't mind), and powdered creamer, and half a dozen boxes of Quest protein bars.

These food items won't go to waste; if they aren't needed, I'll just gradually eat them later. I didn't buy any hand sanitizer because my understanding is that thorough washing of hands with soap and water is just as good. I didn't buy any masks because they are hard to get, and besides if we end up in a pandemic (which I doubt) I plan to stay home almost entirely.

The next time I go to the grocery store, I need to pick up some bottled water and steaks for the freezer. Not too many steaks,though, since hurricane season will be here in three months. Hurricane Katrina ruined my frig forever back in 2005, so now I throw away the contents of my freezer and frig whenever we evacuate.

After Katrina, the military was distributing free MRE's here in New Orleans but I didn't need them. I was glad I did not take any after I heard from my Weight Watchers leader about how many calories they have. A sedentary older woman like me would gain twenty pounds in the blink of an eye if subsisting on them and treating them like normal meals. I was glad that I had other foods at home if needed since obviously grocery stores and restaurants were not open for business.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

I've been focusing on canned soups, canned chicken breast, peanut butter, canned tuna, and salmon in those foil bags. Granted, canned foods are usually high in salt, but my BP does not seem to be affected by salt.

I picked up a number of cans of Low Sodium/No salt added canned chicken. For example, looking at the can label, Hormel No Salt Added premium Chicken Breast in Water - in a 2 oz serving has 45 calories, 10 fat calories, 1g fat, 30 mg Cholesterol, and 80 mg Sodium.

I'm not crazy about the prospect of eating these (as compared to regular fresh chicken breast), but having them just in case is a lot better than not having them if needed.

 

[gwraigty]

The problem is you cannot stock supplies for indefinite periods. So, what are we trying to do here? How long do you plan to stock for?

The lockdown in Wuhan is ongoing for 4 weeks. Chinese people are more obedient than American people. Will Americans stay indoors for 4 weeks?

My main concern right now is that a huge wave of panic buying will clear out all the store shelves of frequent consumables (food, toilet paper, soaps, etc.) and we'll have an indeterminate wait until the stores will be able to get fresh supplies in. This has already happened in countries in the midst of the outbreak, per this article I just found:

Stocking up to prepare for a crisis isn’t ‘panic buying’. It’s actually a pretty rational choice

Recent days have brought reports of shoppers clearing out supermarket shelves from Wuhan and Hong Kong to Singapore and Milan in response to the spread of coronavirus.

...

When it comes to stocking up (or hoarding) a large private collection of goods to see us through a disaster, we don’t know how much we will need because we don’t know how long the event will last.

Accordingly, we tend to err on the side of caution and buy too much rather than too little. This is the natural response of a rational person who faces future uncertainty and seeks to guarantee their family’s survival.

...

figure out what you already have and what you need to get.

Then you can make a shopping list and steadily gather the things you need. Done this way, it gives shops time to restock and won’t leave the shelves bare.

Bolding mine. If many people did this, it would work better and we may not see the empty shelves pictured where panic buying is taking place. (Of course, our local Walmart is notoriously bad at keeping shelves stocked under normal circumstances. ) Sadly, many people are reactive rather than proactive. Around here, even with 3 days notice of a lake effect snowstorm (which hit yesterday), people will wait until the storm is almost upon us, or has already started, to head out and get anything.

I wonder if stores are starting to order in larger quantities now, just in case. Hopefully, but probably not.

Not being allowed to go out is a secondary consideration for me. I have a hard time imagining how such a thing would be enforced here. So many people in Asia live in apartments. It's easy to literally barricade people inside on a mass scale. Not so much here. We do have at least one neighbor 2 houses down who would be more than happy to turn other people in for venturing outside against a quarantine order, I'm sure. But our local police are stretched too thin as it is. Too many roads in and out to effectively barricade and provide manpower for.

I do envision a scenario of certain types of businesses having to close temporarily because of a lack of staff due to mass sickness. Grocery stores could be off limits for an unknown period of time due to either lack of stock or lack of staff. The same thing could happen with restaurants, even if you're inclined to get takeout. Maybe gas up your car a little more often right now, too.

I'm planning to stock up in the near term until I can't anymore, either because the panic buying has begun and shelves are empty, or I've run out of room to put the stuff.

 

[garyt]

I stopped after the GP made a few statements that are wrong or, at best, grammatically confusing.


2. It can cause as mild things as just a common cold.
Meant: It can result in symptoms that resemble those of a common cold.

They got that one right. a coronavirus can cause the common cold.

https://web.stanford.edu/group/virus/corona/colds.html

 

[W2R]

I picked up a number of cans of Low Sodium/No salt added canned chicken. For example, looking at the can label, Hormel No Salt Added premium Chicken Breast in Water - in a 2 oz serving has 45 calories, 10 fat calories, 1g fat, 30 mg Cholesterol, and 80 mg Sodium.

I'm not crazy about the prospect of eating these (as compared to regular fresh chicken breast), but having them just in case is a lot better than not having them if needed.

Exactly!

Every spring I fill my pantry with this type of canned food for hurricane season, and also eat up the contents of my freezer to prepare for hurricane season. It lasts from June 1st through November. Then, after it's over, I eat more canned foods and fill up my freezer with frozen foods during the winter. So, this is a cycle I am used to, but the timing doesn't really coincide with hurricane season this year.

 

[garyt]

It may be. But on the practical side, when you are quarantined like people in that hotel in Tenerife, you are not going to argue with the local police that they are over-acting.

See what happened to a Chinese family who disobeyed the order to stay indoors. The story was that this did not happen in Wuhan, but somewhere else. This family escaped from Wuhan to flee to Kunshan, but refused the order to self-quarantine, and roamed the streets. And it was said that one family member had some symptoms.

There's also an unconfirmed story about a North Korean official who disobeyed the order to self-quarantine after returning from China. He went to a public steam bath. Nobody disobeys Kim Jong-Un's order. No 2nd chance. Penalty: execution.

I think that's going to be one of the problems here in controlling the spread. We have no shortage of yahoos who will think "I have it, I don't care about anybody else" and will roam about at will.

 

[garyt]

I read the every vaccine for corona viruses have failed at clinical trials.

There is no vaccine for SARS, which had an outbreak almost 20 years ago.

The possible reason being SARS kind of went away on it's own so testing for a vaccine was halted. I read that one of the vaccines being developed is based on old SARS data and that's why it was available so quickly. I believe in Texas, maybe Baylor? I'll see if I can find it.

 

[W2R]

The lockdown in Wuhan is ongoing for 4 weeks. Chinese people are more obedient than American people. Will Americans stay indoors for 4 weeks?

You betcha! At least some of us would. In my case, I would be perfectly fine not going any place or getting near to other people.

Besides, I probably wouldn't stay indoors all the time even if I was restricted to staying at home. I would probably sit on my patio in my back yard for a while every day to enjoy the sunshine and weather.

 

[garyt]

If it gets so bad I am drinking instant, I am just going to go lick a walmart shopping cart or something.

LOL, me too

 

[garyt]

Exactly!

Every spring I fill my pantry with this type of canned food for hurricane season, and also eat up the contents of my freezer to prepare for hurricane season. It lasts from June 1st through November. Then, after it's over, I eat more canned foods and fill up my freezer with frozen foods during the winter. So, this is a cycle I am used to, but the timing doesn't really coincide with hurricane season this year.

I'm going to stock up on some canned goods that I normally don't eat and if I don't use them, give them to a charitable food pantry.

 

[Dtail]

You betcha! At least some of us would. In my case, I would be perfectly fine not going any place or getting near to other people.

Besides, I probably wouldn't stay indoors all the time even if I was restricted to staying at home. I would probably sit on my patio in my back yard for a while every day to enjoy the sunshine and weather.

Would hang out in my lanai and pool and bbq.

 

[RAE]

Most stuff I've read on CV from the experts basically say it spreads person-to-person much more readily than the flu, but the effects on most people are relatively minor - cough for a few days, maybe a minor fever for a day or two, and then you feel better. Now, for people with other health issues and/or compromised immune systems, it could be worse, of course. Based on this, I think some of this alarmism over CV is unwarranted. I'm certainly not going to run out and stock up on food, and I'm not going to self-quarantine myself either, unless and until it's pretty clear that the number of CV cases in my immediate area is very high. My guess is that this virus will just be something we will have to deal with from now on, like the flu. As long as you are in good health overall, and you take the normal precautions (wash hands frequently, etc) I don't think there is any reason to get too worked up over this. My opinion only.............YMMV.

 

[gwraigty]

I have DW, two kids and 3 dogs to look after plus I can almost guarantee my sister ignored my suggestions to stock up for her family. I want to be stocked up such that if things get janky for an extended period I can muddle through. Extended period might be months. Ordered my garden seeds early this year so that if I am dependent on what I can grow for veggies it won't be a problem. Probably ought to go get a few sheets of plywood so I can cover the ground floor windows and door in case of bad stuff going down, but I suppose if it gets to that point I will have to worry about the house getting burned down.

My gardening success has been so hit and miss, I've radically reduced the size of it. Plus, we're in an area with an extremely short growing season. It's a great idea though, for anyone who has consistently good results and a longer growing season.

So, I've been wrestling in my mind with a moral question. The only local relatives we have are DH's father (86) and step-mother (79), who live 45 mins. away. DH talks to his father on the phone weekly. I've asked DH if they've talked about the coronavirus situation at all. Nope. This surprises me, considering that DH's step-sister lives in San Diego, and the in-laws are typically worriers. This leads me to believe that it's a non-event in their minds, if it's even on their radar. Both are at high risk for not surviving if they got it. They're both mentally fit and still drive, but each has multiple medical issues, especially DH's step-mother, one of which makes it impossible for her to eat/digest most foods. (We don't even know what she can really eat.) She literally almost starved to death last spring. She doesn't look like she weighs even 100 lbs. Bottom line, if they're not stocking up, she especially would be in a world of hurt. I can tell DH to suggest they start stocking up, but they are free to ignore that suggestion, of course.

So, what happens if people who have the financial means to stock up, don't, and then they come around to you literally begging for food? It could be your relatives, your neighbors, your friends. (No, I have no bullets and don't intend to get any. ) Do you say, too bad, so sad, (especially if you've warned them) and let them go hungry to protect your household? Do you give them some food (and how much and for how long?), hope they don't tell others you've got food, and put your household at risk of running out of food and going hungry yourselves?

 

[explanade]

They got that one right. a coronavirus can cause the common cold.

https://web.stanford.edu/group/virus/corona/colds.html

The scary thing is when your immune system overreacts and it damages your organs.

Some of the patients who were treated were given steroids of some type to try to suppress immune system response.

 

[explanade]

I'm going to stock up on some canned goods that I normally don't eat and if I don't use them, give them to a charitable food pantry.

I opened up a can of beans and made beans on toast, which is suppose to be a popular British thing.

Normally I don't eat canned foods, maybe soup once in awhile.

The beans on toast with some cheese melted on and sricha sauce. It was okay but nothing I would crave.

Easy enough to make though,