Coronavirus - Travel impact

[NW-Bound]

Princess has completed the first phase of the testing. 10 passengers have tested positive for coronavirus and now been hospitalized. The ship will remain offshore with the passengers and crew in quarantine for at least two weeks.

https://www.princess.com/news/notices_and_advisories/notices/diamond-princess-update.html

From the above link:

We were notified that amongst the samples that have completed testing, 10 people have tested positive for Coronavirus.

Note the phrase "amongst the samples that have completed testing". Does that mean they have not tested all of the passengers, and already found 10 positive cases?

 

[tmm99]

Travel Plan Changes Due to Coronavirus?

From the above link:



Note the phrase "amongst the samples that have completed testing". Does that mean they have not tested all of the passengers, and already found 10 positive cases?

This is just my guess, but I imagine that they just test the passengers and crew members who are exhibiting flu-like symptoms, as it has been established that tests won’t turn positive until the symptoms appear (when the viral load is bigger or for whatever reason)

A cruise ship= a floating petri dish of viruses?

 

[luckydude]

We have a 3-week family vacation to Europe scheduled for June. I am considering canceling it.

<warning---rant below>

A lot of people assert that there's an over-reaction to the Corona virus scare because the seasonal flu kills more people annually. But that assertion is based on the numbers published by the Chinese government, which currently shows a mortality rate of around 2%. How many people actually believe in stats published by the Chinese government? If the outbreak is no worse than the flu, why is China taking such drastic measures of sealing off entire cities across the country, cancelling public events and closing schools?

All these measures taken by China indicate that the outbreak is much worse than they are admitting, and certainly worse than the seasonal flu. How much worse? Your guess is as good as mine, but would you want to be the one to find out in person?

DW just got asked by her boss to fly to South Korea next week on some company business. South Korea just reported its 11th case of infection today. I told DW she can't go. DW said that her boss isn't given her a choice. I pulled out our spreadsheet and showed her our "number" to remind her that she doesn't have do anything at work that she doesn't want to do. She smiled and went back to tell her boss no.

Sometimes one just needs a little reminder now and then on where work stands in the grand scheme of things when one is FI

Lucky Dude

 

[Davis65]

We flew to Cambodia nine days ago, a little concerned, but not willing to panic. We had bought masks, but by the time we flew, the experts were already saying that, outside of medical environments, they do more harm than good. We also choose the advice of medical professionals over that of random people on the internet.

Sales of passes for the Angkor Archaeological Site are down 18% compared to the same time last year, in part because Chinese tour groups aren't coming. I'm not crazy about crowds, so this is a big bonus for me.

We're washing our hands, using Lysol wipes on airplane and bus seats, and enjoying this amazing country.

I am amazed that people are cancelling trips that are months away to places nowhere near China, but I guess we're benefiting from other people cancelling their trips. I'm okay with that.

 

[Dtail]

We have two out of country trips including one cruise to various Caribbean islands in the next 4 months. Not one thought of cancelling.

 

[Doc0]

The virus is more infective than the flu not as infective as small pox SARS or MERS. The virus is transmitted by droplet contact, not airborne per' se. This means if you're at a OHare MickeyD and someone with the virus sneezes or coughs on a table before you sit down and you mosey up with your Big Mac, touch the table, then touch your eyes or mouth or pick your nose, that's how you get infected. It also seems to be spread fecal oral so if your in a stall next to someone with explosive diarrhea and any droplets get on you that's infective or you "share" bathroom door knobs.

Completely asymptomatic people shed virus. So you may be with someone asymptomatic but if they have not cleared the virus you are at risk. There is a German case where a woman from Wuhan went to a biz meeting asymptomatic, infected 2 men who then infected 2 other men, etc. It was caught when the woman came down with symptoms after she got home and her company alerted the Germans who then traced down her contacts. Who knows how many were infected while she was on the plane or in the taxi or train to the air port.

Death is from ARDS a syndrome where the infected lungs fill with fluid and can not pass oxygen into the blood stream. It has no cure, only recovery through supportive care until the body decides to heal. If you're already compromised by say diabetes or smoking you may nor have enough reserve to recover. ARDS is bad juju. The death rate from those who progress to hospitalization is about 15%. The death rate among those who have a mild course seems to be about 2% but those numbers are not hard yet. There are 100K ICU beds in the USA all almost always occupied. If this thing gets going those beds will be overwhelmed quick and you are unlikely to recover from ARDS without a ICU level of care.

Taking temps is a screen but an inadequate screen. There is no human immunity to this virus so everyone is at risk, in other words this is a BIG DEAL, but the virology is not at the level of say measles or small pox which rips through non immune populations like wild fire. I'm pretty unimpressed with the Chinese response. It's clear they don't know what they are doing and are going to try and apply brainwashing techniques and bullying as the deterent. I would not be surprised to see 5% of the 11M people Wuhan dead. Viruses don't give a **** about media and lies and ineffective treatment. They are like weapons of mass destruction. Hand washing is key in slowing spread, but inadequate as a cure. There is nothing that is going to stop this till it runs it's course hopefully by summer. The only recourse is to try and stop infected individuals from coming in contact with uninfected crowds. They brought a plane load of US home from China and put them in a voluntary quarantine at a remote AFB in Cali. 2 people tried to leave and the quarantine went from voluntary to mandatory. This is 100% as it should be, with something so dangerous. If properly contained FLU will kill more than Corona if not properly contained we're in trouble because we don't have partial immunity or enough ICU beds. So far it's mostly in China with a few cases world wide but that can change fast enough, and given the length of incubation can already be well changed before anyone is any wiser.

The economic shock from this will not be trivial either, but it just depends how out of control things get.

 

[Nemo2]

Completely asymptomatic people shed virus.

E.g. Mary Mallon aka Typhoid Mary.

 

[AnonEMouse]

I'd like it.
You have room service, hot tubs, pool, likely a balcony, nice meals in the restaurant, and it's all free. Actually better than free as you know the cruise line is going to refund for the days in quarantine, or the entire trip.

It will be a lot better than quarantine at one of the army bases for 14 days

Except that everyone is confined to quarters and "basic" food is brought to them.

"All we have been informed [sic] is 14 days quarantine on the ship. That means we've got no interaction with other passengers, food is brought to the room. It's really basic food, nothing like we've enjoyed on the cruise at all."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51381594

 

[Lsbcal]

The virus is more infective than the flu not as infective as small pox SARS or MERS. The virus is transmitted by droplet contact, not airborne per' se. This means if you're at a OHare MickeyD and someone with the virus sneezes or coughs on a table before you sit down and you mosey up with your Big Mac, touch the table, then touch your eyes or mouth or pick your nose, that's how you get infected. ...

I'm guessing you are a Doc. So this question is for you or anyone else here who has a thoughtful opinion (guessing there are a few of those around ).

What do you do about not touching your face? Here just at home I've been trying to be better at this but I notice I get itchy quite often. Itchy nose, itchy cheek, etc. Probably much worse with allergies. I got in the habit of using my wrist area to scratch a bit as it is hairy and not the hands (which contact surfaces). But that wouldn't be safe with coronavirus droplets.

 

[NotYourAverageJones]

What we are hearing about this virus, isn't even the tip of the iceberg. If you think for one minute China is being honest about the amount of its citizens who are infected or dead, you are kidding yourself.

I would bet good $ we are really looking at 10s of thousands, if not way more people infected or dead already. You couldn't pay me to go anywhere near that entire region.

Sadly, I don't live in the US and just cancelled my trip back home that I was schedule to fly out on this week. I just don't think it's worth the risk to travel anywhere right now. We really don't know how this novel virus is truly spreading and if the 14 days "incubation" period is just an educated guess.

My concern is that it's really on the low side. Just not in a rush to catch this thing.

 

[The Cosmic Avenger]

I'm guessing you are a Doc. So this question is for you or anyone else here who has a thoughtful opinion (guessing there are a few of those around ).

What do you do about not touching your face? Here just at home I've been trying to be better at this but I notice I get itchy quite often. Itchy nose, itchy cheek, etc. Probably much worse with allergies. I got in the habit of using my wrist area to scratch a bit as it is hairy and not the hands (which contact surfaces). But that wouldn't be safe with coronavirus droplets.

I'd like to hear Doc0 address this, too, but this is very much in my field (public health and health behavior), so I thought I would add my two cents.
Changing habits is a long-term thing. I'd try to be conscious of it all the time, even at home, but you really only have to be vigilant about it while you're out and until you can wash your hands thoroughly. (If you haven't worked in a health or lab environment, please do research proper hand-washing, poor practice can be as bad as not washing.)

I'd say the best way to train yourself quickly is to do something that disrupts the habit. For example, with nail biting, it's putting something spicy or with a strong flavor or odor under the nails, or even wearing those protective rubber fingertip covers, anything that makes you stop and consciously recognize the subconscious action. So wearing cosmetic glasses (nonprescription, like actors would wear) or even the fingertip covers or gloves might make you aware of the impulse to touch your eyes. Or something loose around your wrists that you see move or that makes noise when you go to scratch, although those are easier to get accustomed to and ignore, so if it's a strong habit and you're trying to change it on short notice, you might need a physical barrier.

 

[ivinsfan]

Just read an article that the passengers on the quarantined Princess cruise in Japan have now been confined to their cabins.

That won't be a pleasant experience.

 

[Sunset]

Just read an article that the passengers on the quarantined Princess cruise in Japan have now been confined to their cabins.

That won't be a pleasant experience.

Yes, being stuck in the cabin will suck , imagine having an interior room !
At least people with balconies can sit out and not feel so cramped.
People are going to get cabin fever.

 

[ivinsfan]

Yes, being stuck in the cabin will suck , imagine having an interior room !
At least people with balconies can sit out and not feel so cramped.
People are going to get cabin fever.

They actually let them roam around the ship at the beginning of the quarantine and that doesn't make because then the clock would reset every time someone got the virus. Now they drop off food for you. You don't order one guy said he got a ham sandwich for the lunch. No booze which is smart I guess.

 

[ckelly78z]

We had planned to take a weekend trip to South Florida to see my BIL. I'm not sure I want to be in an airplane, or an airport while this is going on, and spreading. I already have a compromised immune system, and once I catch something, it advances quickly, so I would rather stay home, and safe.

 

[NW-Bound]

They actually let them roam around the ship at the beginning of the quarantine and that doesn't make because then the clock would reset every time someone got the virus. Now they drop off food for you. You don't order one guy said he got a ham sandwich for the lunch. No booze which is smart I guess.

It makes sense that food will be rationed soon. A Royal Caribbean video I watch recently says that a large 6,600-passenger cruise ship carries 600,000 lbs of food and drink for 1 week, and needs to be resupplied often.

The pantry of quarantined ships may be empty already, plus it is hard for the staff to prepare food while wearing protection gear.

 

[Nemo2]

a large 6,600-passenger cruise ship carries 600,000 lbs of food and drink for 1 week, and needs to be resupplied often.

Time to invest in MREs?

 

[NW-Bound]

I would rather have canned food and frozen dinners, but dehydrated MRE is unbeatable in the weight criterion.

Perhaps the cruise ship already explores the idea of airdropping MRE by choppers. But they will also need fuel to run the massive diesel engines for power, and the onboard desalinating plant.

 

[JJpop]

We have a cruise in Asia on March 12 that leaves from Singapore and ends in Hong Kong. All 5 ports visited have cases reported. I have requested a credit,not a refund from Princess and they have refused. Absolutely horrible customer relations. Singapore Air gave us a full credit for a future flight without batting an eye. Princess has decided that they can care less about how their customers feel about being put at risk. This is not something simple that you just wait until a few days before the cruise. The flights,schedules at home and other things come into play and if they had any decency they would honor our request. Apparently losing all future business and all the negative word of mouth that will also cause them future business means nothing. Unbelievable. Princess Cruise line has allowed their shortsighted greed to ruin their customer relations.
Yea,we want to take a 15 hour flight wearing masks,get on a cruise ship worried about our health,mixing in with dense crowds in all different locals surrounded by people wearing masks. Sounds like a great,enjoyable,stress-free trip! Hey,but we will be washing our hands 20 times a day. Do they have masks that you can eat through ?

 

[Teacher Terry]

I don’t believe the Chinese accurately count deaths because they do it in a way that is misleading. Since our flights are already paid for we just aren’t booking the flights between countries for now nor more hotels. Thankfully the ones I booked are refundable. Since we aren’t going until August I am hoping this is over. We really want to go to Europe but I have asthma and any respiratory illness hits me hard.

 

[Lsbcal]

I don’t believe the Chinese accurately count deaths because they do it in a way that is misleading. Since our flights are already paid for we just aren’t booking the flights between countries for now nor more hotels. Thankfully the ones I booked are refundable. Since we aren’t going until August I am hoping this is over. We really want to go to Europe but I have asthma and any respiratory illness hits me hard.

DW has some respiratory weakness too. The death toll is one thing but they are saying that around 20% of people need hospitalization. Pneumonia is a real problem with this flu.

We are planning on a mid-August start on a trip to the Netherlands, Belgium, ending in the UK. We probably will book hotels that we can cancel and wait to book the air fare.

I guess the issue would be coming into frequent contact with people from all over the world. But these are developed countries. Hopefully low risk in the warmer seasons.

The alternative is to go up to the Sierras here and do some day hiking. Fun in a much different form.

 

[audreyh1]

We have a cruise in Asia on March 12 that leaves from Singapore and ends in Hong Kong. All 5 ports visited have cases reported. I have requested a credit,not a refund from Princess and they have refused. Absolutely horrible customer relations. Singapore Air gave us a full credit for a future flight without batting an eye. Princess has decided that they can care less about how their customers feel about being put at risk. This is not something simple that you just wait until a few days before the cruise. The flights,schedules at home and other things come into play and if they had any decency they would honor our request. Apparently losing all future business and all the negative word of mouth that will also cause them future business means nothing. Unbelievable. Princess Cruise line has allowed their shortsighted greed to ruin their customer relations.
Yea,we want to take a 15 hour flight wearing masks,get on a cruise ship worried about our health,mixing in with dense crowds in all different locals surrounded by people wearing masks. Sounds like a great,enjoyable,stress-free trip! Hey,but we will be washing our hands 20 times a day. Do they have masks that you can eat through ?

Since that’s so close, and it’s in Asia, and visiting ports that have had problems, I can’t imagine it happening, or if it did, seems like it would end up being a floating quarantine like others. Some of the ports might not even allow the ship to dock.

 

[audreyh1]

I'm guessing you are a Doc. So this question is for you or anyone else here who has a thoughtful opinion (guessing there are a few of those around ).

What do you do about not touching your face? Here just at home I've been trying to be better at this but I notice I get itchy quite often. Itchy nose, itchy cheek, etc. Probably much worse with allergies. I got in the habit of using my wrist area to scratch a bit as it is hairy and not the hands (which contact surfaces). But that wouldn't be safe with coronavirus droplets.

Lsbcal - I plan to take a set of disposable surgical gloves when I travel through the airports next week. I think that will help me not touch my face which is a very bad habit of mine. I’ll have to exchange them frequently and wipe off luggage handles, seat table, etc. I won’t wear them while on the plane.

I always keep the air blowing on me - that’s heavily filtered air from what I understand.

I’ll be washing my hand often anyway.

 

[cathy63]

We have a cruise in Asia on March 12 that leaves from Singapore and ends in Hong Kong. All 5 ports visited have cases reported. I have requested a credit,not a refund from Princess and they have refused. Absolutely horrible customer relations. Singapore Air gave us a full credit for a future flight without batting an eye. Princess has decided that they can care less about how their customers feel about being put at risk. This is not something simple that you just wait until a few days before the cruise. The flights,schedules at home and other things come into play and if they had any decency they would honor our request. Apparently losing all future business and all the negative word of mouth that will also cause them future business means nothing. Unbelievable. Princess Cruise line has allowed their shortsighted greed to ruin their customer relations.
Yea,we want to take a 15 hour flight wearing masks,get on a cruise ship worried about our health,mixing in with dense crowds in all different locals surrounded by people wearing masks. Sounds like a great,enjoyable,stress-free trip! Hey,but we will be washing our hands 20 times a day. Do they have masks that you can eat through ?

That's 5 weeks away. I can see why you'd want to know soonest what their plans are, but I can also see that they don't have any plans yet and they aren't going to cancel cruises this far in advance.

If you're booked on the Majestic, my guess is that they won't even send that ship to Asia if there's still a risk of it falling into a quarantine situation. The last thing Princess wants is more ships full of people they can't offload sitting in harbors where they have to pay port fees. They'll likely offer you a choice between a refund or taking whatever the alternate itinerary ends up being (probably something around Aus & NZ, or maybe Aus to Fiji or Tahiti). If you got a good deal on this trip, they may not offer you a credit if they think a refund is better for them long-term (i.e. that cruise prices will be higher later this year).

If you're on the Sapphire, she's already in Asia. I think they'll only cancel those cruises if she falls under quarantine or if people no longer have a way to get to Singapore because airlines start cancelling flights to all of Asia instead of just to China. They may have to cancel port calls if other countries no longer want tourists visiting though. People could end up flying to Singapore and spending most of the cruise on sea days.

 

[luckydude]

The problem with taking a cruise anywhere right now is that all it takes is for someone onboard to get a fever for whatever reason, and given the hysteria surrounding the outbreak, the ship would likely be refused port entry while the sick person is tested.

At best, one would be stuck onboard for a day or two waiting the test result to come back negative (witness what happened with that cruise ship at the Italian port last week); at worst, the test turns out to be positive and one is quarantined onboard along with thousands of others who might or might not also be infected. Not a pleasant prospect in either case.

Lucky Dude