Coronavirus - Travel impacts II

[Independent]

Actually at this point further testing is a waste of resources. Everyone on the ship was exposed and needs to go through a lengthy quarantine.

I think it matters.

If everyone is tested, most will be negative.

Do you let the negative group off the ship so they can drive themselves home?
How about fly home?

Are we ready to require a certificate of a negative coronavirus test, issued within __ hours of departure, for every plane flight in the country?

 

[LRDave]

So we are 77 days from our departure and I checked our bookings with Virgin Atlantic and found that the cabin in our departure flight has gone from 80% full to just four people. If we end up being the only couple in the upper class cabin, I'm okay with that. If they cancel the flight, we will ask for a full refund which we are entitled to. Either way, fly in a nearly empty upper class cabin or full refund, will work for us.

While an anecdote, I find this kind of alarming. Airlines are not the most resilient of industries.

 

[brewer12345]

I think it matters.

If everyone is tested, most will be negative.

Do you let the negative group off the ship so they can drive themselves home?
How about fly home?

Are we ready to require a certificate of a negative coronavirus test, issued within __ hours of departure, for every plane flight in the country?

Now that we know the virus is loose on the ship, test results do not matter. Everyone on board has been exposed, so whether they test positive or not today they all need to go through quarantine before being let loose on the rest of us.

 

[Gearhead Jim]

I've mapped out coronavirus hotspots in relation to our upcoming road trip route. Looks like we need to avoid gas/food/bathroom break stops in the Omaha and Denver areas, and minimize exposure in Las Vegas and Phoenix.

How did you do the up-to-date virus mapping?

MIL is on her last legs in a home near Las Vegas, we may be in a "now or never" situation soon for a last visit.

We can ride free in a Virus Tube, or pay our own way and drive our car. Driving has its own risks, especially this time of year, but they seem more controllable.

 

[Independent]

Now that we know the virus is loose on the ship, test results do not matter. Everyone on board has been exposed, so whether they test positive or not today they all need to go through quarantine before being let loose on the rest of us.

If we're going to quarantine everybody from the ship, does it make sense to separate them between those who are testing positive and those who are testing negative?

We know the virus is loose in Kirkland, WA.
Are you ready to quarantine the entire town?

What I'm getting at is that everyone in the US is going to be exposed to the virus over the next year. There is no way to lock it down. Half the people who tested positive for the virus on the Diamond Princess did not have symptoms. We can't quarantine everybody who lives in an area where the virus is "loose".

The graph of the number sick at home, or the graph of the number hospitalized, on any given day will look like a skewed bell shaped curve. From a public health perspective, if we can slow transmissions, we can flatten the curve. That's good if it reduces the peak load on the medical care system. But, it's not going to have a big impact on the eventual total number of cases.

I don't understand enough about immune response to viruses to say much more. If I pick up a "few" virus particles, does my immune system make antibodies and wipe it out quickly because it didn't have to deal with "too many" virus particles? And then, if I pick up a heavier viral dose later, am I already primed to fight it off? If so, all the recommendations for washing hands etc. make sense in the long term because they may reduce the quantity of virus we get the first time, and reduce the severity of any symptoms.

 

[Gearhead Jim]

Now that we know the virus is loose on the ship, test results do not matter. Everyone on board has been exposed, so whether they test positive or not today they all need to go through quarantine before being let loose on the rest of us.

The fact that everyone has been exposed, does not mean that everyone has or will have the virus. We hope.

I have not seen any hard numbers on the accuracy of the test itself, nor if the test can detect the virus in a person before they become contagious.

The amount of mis-information or no information is incredible. Three months after the virus first appeared, just yesterday a talking head on the news said the life of the virus on hard surfaces could be as short as 4 hours or a long as 9 days, nobody knows for sure. WTF?

 

[Nemo2]

Three months after the virus first appeared, just yesterday a talking head on the news said the life of the virus on hard surfaces could be as short as 4 hours or a long as 9 days, nobody knows for sure. WTF?

"How long is a piece of string?"

 

[Fermion]

The amount of mis-information or no information is incredible. Three months after the virus first appeared, just yesterday a talking head on the news said the life of the virus on hard surfaces could be as short as 4 hours or a long as 9 days, nobody knows for sure. WTF?

There are so many factors on that. What is the temperature of the air above the surface? What is the humidity. Is there airflow? Does any UV light touch the surface?

Those are just the ones I can identify quickly off the top of my head but I guess there are several other factors.

 

[Sunset]

If we're going to quarantine everybody from the ship, does it make sense to separate them between those who are testing positive and those who are testing negative?

....

It seems to me, the only effective quarantine is one where everyone is separate from everyone else.

Putting 1,000 in a gym is not a quarantine.

 

[The Cosmic Avenger]

How did you do the up-to-date virus mapping?

MIL is on her last legs in a home near Las Vegas, we may be in a "now or never" situation soon for a last visit.

We can ride free in a Virus Tube, or pay our own way and drive our car. Driving has its own risks, especially this time of year, but they seem more controllable.

I would also be interested in what Ronstar did, but I can't imagine it's more up-to-date or comprehensive than the Johns Hopkins map:

Data sources: WHO, CDC, ECDC, NHC and DXY. Read more in this blog.

 

[Ronstar]

How did you do the up-to-date virus mapping?

MIL is on her last legs in a home near Las Vegas, we may be in a "now or never" situation soon for a last visit.

We can ride free in a Virus Tube, or pay our own way and drive our car. Driving has its own risks, especially this time of year, but they seem more controllable.

I found an updated map in the NY times.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

 

[Ronstar]

I would also be interested in what Ronstar did, but I can't imagine it's more up-to-date or comprehensive than the Johns Hopkins map:

That's a very good map. Interesting - data is different from the NY times map. John Hopkins map shows 1 in Nebraska. NY Times shows 14. Probably a lot of other differences too. I didn't check.

 

[Freedom56]

While an anecdote, I find this kind of alarming. Airlines are not the most resilient of industries.

You are correct, airlines in the past have not been the most resilient. As the former CEO of American Airlines stated: " Airlines are great places to work but terrible for investors".

Many airlines such as Lufthansa announced that they are cutting an astonishing 50% of flights due to a lack of demand. Other airlines will join. United, Delta, and American have all announced cuts to flights. So there is a sharp drop in demand for air travel. I suppose that the cruise industry is in a precarious situation.

 

[Gumby]

That's a very good map. Interesting - data is different from the NY times map. John Hopkins map shows 1 in Nebraska. NY Times shows 14. Probably a lot of other differences too. I didn't check.

I believe that is because all but one of the Nebraska people are evacuees from the Diamond Princess. In the Johns Hopkins map, the Diamond Princess and cases associated with it are listed as "Other" in the country list. In the NYT, those cases are attributed to Nebraska, which is where the people are now.

 

[Ronstar]

^^ Ahhh - Thanks!

 

[sengsational]

I would also be interested in what Ronstar did, but I can't imagine it's more up-to-date or comprehensive than the Johns Hopkins map:

It looks like that map puts cases in the right town in the US, but for at least some countries in South America, it puts the red dot in the geographical center of the country. For instance, I think the cases in Ecuador are in Guayaquil, but the dot is in a remote national park

 

[braumeister]

It looks like that map puts cases in the right town in the US, but for at least some countries in South America, it puts the red dot in the geographical center of the country. For instance, I think the cases in Ecuador are in Guayaquil, but the dot is in a remote national park

That's right. I think it would be too taxing to try to pinpoint every location where a confirmed case is located, so if the total for a country is small, it's good enough to just know there are cases there..

 

[NW-Bound]

Uh Oh! Italy is going to lockdown the entire region of Lombardy and Northern Italy. About 16 million people or 1/4 of the Italian population will be affected.

Nobody comes in/out of the region. No public places to be opened. Restaurants can stay open, but customers must be placed 1 meter apart. People must stay home unless it is absolutely necessary to be out. Violation is a criminal offense with jail time.

Outside of the region, the rest of Italy will also be under some lesser restrictions.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51787238


PS. I wonder where our friend Dave Barnes is now.

 

[brewer12345]

Uh Oh! Italy is going to lockdown the entire region of Lombardy and Northern Italy. About 16 million people or 1/4 of the Italian population will be affected.

Nobody comes in/out of the region. No public places to be opened. Restaurants can stay open, but customers must be placed 1 meter a part. People must stay home unless it is absolutely necessary to be out. Violation is a criminal offense with jail time.

Outside of the region, the rest of Italy will also be under some lesser restrictions.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51787238


PS. I wonder where our friend Dave Barnes is now.

The lockdown is for a month, too. Rough.

California just had a case of basically martial law, with the police forcing everyone in a localized area to stay in their houses.

 

[TromboneAl]

Uh Oh! Italy is going to lockdown the entire region of Lombardy and Northern Italy. About 16 million people or 1/4 of the Italian population will be affected.

I guess China isn't the only country that can show tough love.

 

[Another Reader]

The lockdown is for a month, too. Rough.

California just had a case of basically martial law, with the police forcing everyone in a localized area to stay in their houses.

I must have missed that in the news. Where in California did this occur?

 

[Rosie]

A week from Monday (3/16) I'm flying from Nor Cal to Montreal to attend the World Figure Skating Championships. In theory, anyways.

Me and several thousand other spectators from all around the world will be in the Bell Centre arena for several hours every day for nearly a week.
(Ordinarily a large proportion of the spectators would be from Japan, S. Korea, China, Italy & France, but I imagine many of them won't make the trip now.)

I've been scouring the Canadian news sites and the figure skating organizations to see if there's any word about cancellation. The International Skating Union (ISU) posted a few days ago that the event is still going to be held, but who knows, the Canadian gov't might have other ideas. (The ISU did recently cancel a speed skating event, although that was going to be held in S Korea.)

I booked with a tour group and my trip is non-refundable. I don't know if I'll get anything back if the event is cancelled outright, I'm not getting my hopes up.

I checked my travel insurance (World Nomads), but it looks like I'm not covered if the event is cancelled. The good news is, I am covered if I'm directly affected by covid-19 (say, if I'm sickened either before or during the trip, or if I'm quarantined). So there's that.

I'm not concerned for myself, I'm in good health and will take all the reasonable precautions. But I'm assuming many of the competitors will not be able to attend and it'll put a damper on the event. Assuming it still goes on.

Oh well. We'll see what transpires.

 

[Chuckanut]

Again, it's easy to say they are rich folks who can all afford it. They aren't. I know what a 15 day cruise costs on Princess. Inside cabin, you're looking at probably close to $4K for two, give or take. Costly, but not out of the range of a working class family saving for years for one special experience.

Those 62 passengers you talk about are a small percentage, probably 2% of the typical large ship's passenger manifest.

+1

I know a number of people who have saved and taken one of those 2-3 week Europe's Greatest Hits type of tours. For them it was the "trip of a lifetime". They have no plans to go back. I remember my parents going to Spain with some Spanish friends. They loved it. But, go back? It just was not in the cards for them. Not everybody is foot loose, fancy free and has the cash to go back again.

 

[brewer12345]

I must have missed that in the news. Where in California did this occur?

Details here: https://www.wibw.com/content/news/-...4MtwM5WhPwtDB9Bl5eZHpZg7Y2iuI3uUMIIpAtRoY-sqM

"The Placer County Health Department issued a brief statement shortly after the police presence, stating: “Law enforcement partners are currently responding to enforce a health officer’s order. We cannot share any additional information to protect patient confidentiality.”
The orders were given under sections of California Health and Safety Code that allows Placer Health to “enforce regulations requiring strict isolation, or quarantine if the action is necessary for the protection of the public health.”"

 

[audreyh1]

PS. I wonder where our friend Dave Barnes is now.

Yeah, I was wondering the exact same thing. If they haven’t left northern Italy now I fear they will be stuck!