Don't recover yet!

[cute fuzzy bunny]

I have also noticed that plywood and lumber costs to be lower

I got a salesman at a hardware supply thats a good 2.5 hour drive round trip from here to discount a truck full of stuff about 15% below what home depot and lowes would do, and waive the delivery fees.

The contractors and building suppliers are all a little nervous and many short on work/customers, but they're all thinking its just going to be a month or two stall. I think it'll last a year or more, so the bargains might get better.

Customers are leery of spending money on their homes for the same reason people dont like to buy stocks when they're deeply discounted. Banks are leery of loaning money without putting people under a magnifying glass. New construction cycles that used to take a few weeks to a month to go from someone wanting to build something to getting a loan and getting on the job might stretch into 3-4 months.

My BIL's been home building for decades. Just had a customer cancel out on him for a new custom home in the 11th hour, and he's getting put through the wringer by the bank on getting financing for a new small subdivision he wants to put up.

So he'll be doing a LOT of work on our house over the next couple of months...

 

[ikubak]

Mine did the same thing. He pulled out as the market plunged late in 2007. I don't know what his asset allocation was but I suspect it was mostly individual stocks. I think I'd be slightly ahead if I had dumped my mutual funds at the same time but not by more than a few percent.

That is always the question if you get out. "When do you get back in?" He's still predicting the end of the financial system as we know it but he also lives in California.

I'm down almost nothing since the beginning of 2008 (<2%) so it would be hard to justify getting out if I had. Of course, selling at the absolute market top and buying at the absolute market bottom sounds so wonderful. I should just do that all the time.

Like 2B, I don't know how to time the market either. If I did, I would have retired long ago. I would love to be able to sell at the top and buy at the bottom, I just don't know how to do it, and I've read a lot of other people's ideas about how to do it and have found none to be right most of the time. I've continued to buy into my AA and I am now back within a percent or two of my peak in October 2007.

 

[BunsGettingFirm]

If you want to feel better about the charts---stop looking at the 3 month chart and check out the one year version. It will make you feel like you are getting a much better bargain.
Now if you want to be a filthy, rotten, market timer you may want to wait for the next dip. The market could run a bit more here, but it is going to get overbought fast---besides, we still have not proven we can punch out of this range.....................Sooo, I think I'll take a shower now, all this talk of market timing has made me feel dirty---really dirty

Or turn the charts upside down and start looking for the flying sombrero signal. Old joke but good joke. :0

 

[Gazingus]

You said you rolled out of a 401k last week, but how was the money invested? If it was in stocks, plugging back into equities is really just a sideways move.

That was the point which I didn't make clear. I was just relocating money from 401 to IRA (saving expenses from mutuals to indexes), but I got caught by a 5% uptick during the transfer. I wasn't trying to time the market, but it timed me!

I actually bit the bullet and put in orders this morning to spread across emerging mkts, int'l, small cap, large cap, and REIT. I looked just now at the acitivity today and successfully cancelled all those orders! HAH!

I'm going to wait a bit.

 

[REWahoo]

I'm going to wait a bit.

...but you aren't going to try to time the market, right?

(Sorry, couldn't resist. Were I in your situation, I'd probably be having the same battle with myself...)

 

[Gazingus]

I know it goes against everything involved in long-term investing, of which I claim to be an adherent, but I HATE getting a big hickey first rattle out of the box.

 

[megacorp-firee]

a minor hijack: 401k to IRA; why

That was the point which I didn't make clear. I was just relocating money from 401 to IRA (saving expenses from mutuals to indexes), but I got caught by a 5% uptick during the transfer. I wasn't trying to time the market, but it timed me!

Gazingus, I'm in the midst (thinking stage) of doing this myself... what were the reasons for you making this move?
Anyone else with thoughts on why you move a 401k to IRA would be welcomed.
Thanks.

 

[mja]

That was the point which I didn't make clear. I was just relocating money from 401 to IRA (saving expenses from mutuals to indexes), but I got caught by a 5% uptick during the transfer. I wasn't trying to time the market, but it timed me!

We just moved the better-half's variable annuity(*) to Fidelity and we're in the free look period until May 12th. I wasn't aware that during the free look period (in my state) Fidelity holds the money in a money-market equivalent.

So, similar to you, I'm in the odd position of hoping for a level (or down) market for the next few weeks.

(*) Yes, I know, we hate VAs on this board, but she didn't know better at the time.

 

[Gazingus]

Gazingus, I'm in the midst (thinking stage) of doing this myself... what were the reasons for you making this move?
Anyone else with thoughts on why you move a 401k to IRA would be welcomed.
Thanks.

• Expenses You never feel certain you know how much the employer plan is charging you because there is no reporting of expenses to the individual. Not so with Fidelity; expenses are very clear.
• Flexibility There were about 16 funds in the employer plan and I think the performance was substandard. Losses greater than market % and slower to recover.
• Control Same as above. I have TONS more options now.