cute fuzzy bunny
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Is that like PE/10 only 10% better?
I have a problem with the premise that started this roll: Namely that you shouldn't worry about trying to establish SWR to any high degree of certainity because of variables that could intervene.
The question is how much accuracy is required?
I think that it is probably enough to get the initial SWR into the right ballpark and then use a system with feedback (e.g. Gummy's "Sensible Withdrawals"). The base rate in one of these variable systems more than accounts for the worst historical data and the variable portion lets you enjoy the more than likely "extra" returns. Using feedback allows the system to cope with changing conditions.
And I'm well-diversified, so some part of my portfolio is usually doing OK. Beats worrying about valuation or whatever.
Of course, the important thing is to actually pay attention to the feedback. Sometimes you have to whack yourself in the head to pay attention to negative feedback.
happy with travel or Canasta
Determining a reasonable withdrawal rate from a ballpark perspective and periodically adjusting your plan to make sure you arent over or under withdrawing makes perfect sense.
But that isnt what is being proposed here by the travelling troll.
He thinks, or wants us to think he thinks, that he can determine asset valuations and whether to own them or not.
In my case when I FIRE it will be the decider on how much time is spent in Thailand/Eastern Europe/South America and Japan/North America/Western Europe.
Tha is an interesting idea. However, too often one realizes that he must add aother name to the already long list of countries where an American is walking around with a sign on his back that says-"Kidnap me!"
Who knows how it will look in 5 years?
However, a lot of it depends on how one chooses to live. A simple quiet life without ostentation should attract little attention. Though you are correct that there are areas that one would be well advised to avoid or travel carefully and quickly through. Some of those are in the US.
You probably are a very inoffensive eco-traveler. But be assured that if you could be valuable to anyone- and in a country where $10 per day is a lot, who isn't- people will know.
I finally gave up on the composite creature that includes the alias h@cus and probably quite a few more (e.g. jwr1945). Who knows whether the h@cus story is closer to the real one (guy who tried to RE with way too llittle and went mad with the worry) or the jwr1945 story (REd guy who is ~60 - i.e. b.1945 - and gets his jollies by causing mayhem on internet boards). Stranger things have happened in the 25 or so years that I've been hanging out on the internet.
If anyone is interested I have started a FIRE-oriented board that is, and forever will be, *****- and JWR1945-free. We have a small but knowledgeable core of posters who don't have to worry about their threads being hijacked by attention-craving trolls. :
raddr-pages.com/forums
He'll just register with some other bogus aka...
He's registered under four different screen names on the Motley Fool, but Hoco-Mania is so distinctive, we can usually make a definitive identification by the second or third post.
intercst
LOL - yeah, I think we can make a positive ID, especially with my co-administrator Ataloss constantly on guard for hoco/JWR-speak.
Raddr, the link isn't working for me. Is this the address?If anyone is interested I have started a FIRE-oriented board...