For the first time ever I sold all my stocks

[COcheesehead]

You are the only one I know who make investments based on a 2 months time horizon.

The point, that went over your head, is the guy is a manipulator at best and wrong at worst.

 

[kevdude]

I'm curious if those that went to cash or sold a good portion of their stock positions earlier in the year are happy with their decision. And of those that did if they started buying back in.

I came close to doing so at the beginning of April, but could not bring myself to do it. And this was after buying a fair amount of stocks in late February and late March at what turned out to be the bottom of the market so far. One of the reasons I decided not to sell, silly as it may sound, is I didn't want to have a lot of short term losses without having the short term gains to offset.

 

[pb4uski]

I'm curious if those that went to cash or sold a good portion of their stock positions earlier in the year are happy with their decision. And of those that did if they started buying back in. ...

I think it is way too early to tell. I still believe that this recession will be worse than 2008/2009 but not as bad as the Great Depression and that since pre-covid that ~70% of the economy was consumer spending that unemployment is a key metric to watch.

I sometimes have a FOMO and will concede that the resilence of this market is perplexing given the obvious economic malaise. I think there is a lot worse to come and that a V-shaped recovery is wishful thinking and that the recovery will be years and not months.

I did buy some SWAN in early May.

It will be interesting to see how second quarter corporate earnings emerge.

 

[tdv2]

Here is a recent video on Jeffrey Gundlach...

To summarize:

1. Fed is holding up the market but there is a higher risk of holding fix income assets.
2. Fed does not support negative interest rate.
3. Fed will suppress treasury interest rates to manage national debt.
4. Dollar may decline due to the higher federal debt. This impacts US investors holding overseas stocks and bonds.
5. V shaped recovery is highly optimistic and not plausible.
6. Recovery may not happen in 2020 and 2021 due to unemployment.
7. A third political party may emerge after this election.

You say you got bought back into the market in late March---30% equities. Then you post on 5/1 the quote below in a bond discussion thread that you are short the equity market.

Which is it Can't take what you say seriously anymore.

Whatever.

FYI. I decided to short the market by buying shares of RYURX on my non-IRA Etrade account. This is because Jeffrey Gundlach has announced that he is shorting the market and Warren Buffet has increased his cash position.

The S&P500 is way too high in my opinion with the large unemployment applications and the shelter in place is causing some long term economic damage. I also read that Wuhan has opened their economy but people are still scared and there is no bounce in China's economy. Once USA opens up their economy I expect something similar. When investors realizes that we are in a recession, the market will decline. At that point, I will sell my shares of RYURX and make a profit.

I put money to back up what I believe in. This is how I missed the bear market by reallocating from 60/40 to 100% treasuries in 2019. VUSUX's 1st quarter 2020 return is +20% during the crash and I am one of the few people who is making money during this bear market with treasuries in my IRA. Treasuries were also recommended by Jeffrey Gundlach in 2019.

I am a gambler by nature and I do this to make my life more exciting. We will see what happens next.

 

[kevdude]

I think it is way too early to tell.

I guess I should've reworded my post. I know it's way too early to tell if it was a good idea or not. I was just wondering what people's thoughts were, such as your potential for FOMO and if that caused them to get back in or be content with holding on to the cash.

I hope you let us know how your SWAN investment does once in a while. I read some similar ideas on Bogleheads both with leverage and without.

 

[tulak]

I'm curious if those that went to cash or sold a good portion of their stock positions earlier in the year are happy with their decision. And of those that did if they started buying back in.

I’m still happy. Of course, I sold when the S&P was around 3200, so I’m still “ahead.”

I also didn’t sell everything. I went from around 72% to 50% equity allocation. I’m at around 58% now, due to buying individual stocks back in March.

Since I’m still invested, I don’t have FOMO, but I am greedy, so I will think about the money I could have had if the markets go up. But then I remind myself why I sold. I still don’t think we’ve seen the full economic impact and until this is priced in and/or fully realized, I’m ok with a lower equity allocation.

 

[2177V]

You say you got bought back into the market in late March---30% equities. Then you post on 5/1 the quote below in a bond discussion thread that you are short the equity market.

Which is it Can't take what you say seriously anymore.

You probably missed an earlier post to get back into equities after I was 100% treasuries and missed the crash: 10% crash= Buy 10% equities, 20% crash= Buy 20% equities. The Markets crashed 30% so I reallocate to 30% equities/70% treasuries after buying equities as a discount.

Pop quiz: When is a good time to invest $10K in S&P500 and invest $10K in shorting the S&P500 at the same time?

Only an experienced investor knows the answer to this pop quiz question.....

Answer: Right now. If the market decline, you make money on the short position in the short term. You make money on the other S&P500 investment after the market recovers in the long term.

Generally I would put in a sell order on my E*trade account for the short position to automatically sell after the S&P500 drops 5% or 10%. The S&P 500 investment is set aside in my Vanguard IRA as my long term investment.

The critical point: There is a huge difference between short term investing and long term investing because it involves two difference time horizons. A buy and hold has ALWAYS been a long term investment strategy which has been successful. Shorting the market has ALWAYS been a short term strategy.

Bottomline:

In the long term, the market will eventually recover. Do you agree?

In the short term, I believe the market will decline. You may or may not agree on this point but I do. This is because of the election, the pandemic, unemployment, reduced corporate earnings, etc, etc

 

[COcheesehead]

You probably missed an earlier post to get back into equities after I was 100% treasuries and missed the crash: 10% crash= Buy 10% equities, 20% crash= Buy 20% equities. The Markets crashed 30% so I reallocate to 30% equities/70% treasuries after buying equities as a discount.

Pop quiz: When is a good time to invest $10K in S&P500 and invest $10K in shorting the S&P500 at the same time?

Only an experienced investor knows the answer to this pop quiz question.....

Answer: Right now. If the market decline, you make money on the short position in the short term. You make money on the other S&P500 investment after the market recovers in the long term.

Generally I would put in a sell order on my E*trade account for the short position to automatically sell after the S&P500 drops 5% or 10%. The S&P 500 investment is set aside in my Vanguard IRA as my long term investment.

The critical point: There is a huge difference between short term investing and long term investing because it involves two difference time horizons. A buy and hold has ALWAYS been a long term investment strategy which has been successful. Shorting the market has ALWAYS been a short term strategy.

Bottomline:

In the long term, the market will eventually recover. Do you agree?

In the short term, I believe the market will decline. You may or may not agree on this point but I do. This is because of the election, the pandemic, unemployment, reduced corporate earnings, etc, etc

Don’t fight the Fed.

 

[tdv2]

You probably missed an earlier post to get back into equities after I was 100% treasuries and missed the crash: 10% crash= Buy 10% equities, 20% crash= Buy 20% equities. The Markets crashed 30% so I reallocate to 30% equities/70% treasuries after buying equities as a discount.

Pop quiz: When is a good time to invest $10K in S&P500 and invest $10K in shorting the S&P500 at the same time?

Only an experienced investor knows the answer to this pop quiz question.....

Answer: Right now. If the market decline, you make money on the short position in the short term. You make money on the other S&P500 investment after the market recovers in the long term.

Generally I would put in a sell order on my E*trade account for the short position to automatically sell after the S&P500 drops 5% or 10%. The S&P 500 investment is set aside in my Vanguard IRA as my long term investment.

The critical point: There is a huge difference between short term investing and long term investing because it involves two difference time horizons. A buy and hold has ALWAYS been a long term investment strategy which has been successful. Shorting the market has ALWAYS been a short term strategy.

Bottomline:

In the long term, the market will eventually recover. Do you agree?

In the short term, I believe the market will decline. You may or may not agree on this point but I do. This is because of the election, the pandemic, unemployment, reduced corporate earnings, etc, etc

No. Did not miss your earlier post. Actually, I really don't care what you did. I"m just pointing out that Nothing you are saying makes any sense because you contradict posts you made just a month or two ago without any explanation.

 

[COcheesehead]

No. Did not miss your earlier post. Actually, I really don't care what you did. I"m just pointing out that Nothing you are saying makes any sense because you contradict posts you made just a month or two ago without any explanation.

Cuz they are following their buddy Gundy , who is equally contradicting for his own gain.

 

[tdv2]

Cuz they are following their buddy Gundy , who is equally contradicting for his own gain.

Well aware of that also. Tried to make that point a couple of months back as well. He has no interest in making predictions for his minions. He only wants to get money under management so he can sap you with high fees and expenses.

 

[2177V]

Don’t fight the Fed.

True for long term investments. Short term...not so true. This is because the Fed reacts to market conditions and data. Fed conducts monetary policy to mitigate and there is a time lag between the new monetary policy and the effects.

 

[harllee]

Well, I am the person that started this thread. I sold and went to 100% cash/bonds (not at the low but at a time when my equities had recovered) and I am still out of the market. I am almost 70 and have enough income/assets for the rest of my life so there was no need for me to lose sleep and be anxious over this market. I may dip my toe back into stocks some day but now is not the time. I could be wrong but I still believe we are in for a very bumpy ride. I have no regrets and no fear of missing out. My only concern now is making sure that I and my loved ones do not come down with this terrible virus.

 

[2177V]

Well aware of that also. Tried to make that point a couple of months back as well. He has no interest in making predictions for his minions. He only wants to get money under management so he can sap you with high fees and expenses.

If Jeffrey Gundlach does not have any credibility, why is he showing up on Youtube and TV all the time? Why is he called the "Bond King?"



I made nearly 6 figure profit by taking Jeffery Gundlach's advice and that is the only thing that matters to me. He is my free financial advisor since I do not have to pay him.

 

[Vincenzo Corleone]

I'm curious if those that went to cash or sold a good portion of their stock positions earlier in the year are happy with their decision. And of those that did if they started buying back in.

I came close to doing so at the beginning of April, but could not bring myself to do it. And this was after buying a fair amount of stocks in late February and late March at what turned out to be the bottom of the market so far. One of the reasons I decided not to sell, silly as it may sound, is I didn't want to have a lot of short term losses without having the short term gains to offset.

I don't regret a thing. I think I managed my risk well. I won't start buying back in until:

1) A vaccine for Covid-19 becomes available, or herd immunity is achieved
2) The Fed reduces or ends their market manipulation
3) The P/E on the S&P sinks to attractive levels

If 1) is achieved, I might be tempted at some point to put some money into an international stock fund.

 

[2177V]

Well, I am the person that started this thread. I sold and went to 100% cash/bonds (not at the low but at a time when my equities had recovered) and I am still out of the market. I am almost 70 and have enough income/assets for the rest of my life so there was no need for me to lose sleep and be anxious over this market. I may dip my toe back into stocks some day but now is not the time. I could be wrong but I still believe we are in for a very bumpy ride. I have no regrets and no fear of missing out. My only concern now is making sure that I and my loved ones do not come down with this terrible virus.

Good for you. At 70, you made the right move.



I am 69 I went to 100% treasuries in 2019 which is almost the same thing. However, after the market crash, I can't ignore the opportunity to make more money but I am careful about managing my risk so I won't lose any sleep.



I am 30% equities/70% treasuries in my IRA and I like this position since the 30% equities were purchased at a 30% discount and treasuries rarely lose money. My E-trade account is only about 10% of my IRA which I use for entertainment. I already made 25% using VUSUX in my IRA so my E-trade account is like using house money at a casino.

 

[tdv2]

Well, I am the person that started this thread. I sold and went to 100% cash/bonds (not at the low but at a time when my equities had recovered) and I am still out of the market. I am almost 70 and have enough income/assets for the rest of my life so there was no need for me to lose sleep and be anxious over this market. I may dip my toe back into stocks some day but now is not the time. I could be wrong but I still believe we are in for a very bumpy ride. I have no regrets and no fear of missing out. My only concern now is making sure that I and my loved ones do not come down with this terrible virus.

Getting out of the equity market because you have "won the game" is a personal decision and one that I think is a good idea based on time horizon. What isn't a good idea in MHO is getting out because there is going to be a bumpy ride with the idea of getting back in sometime down the road....this is just market timing at it's core. For those of us with large taxable positions moving all out and then some back in in turbulent times would create taxable events that would be a significant drag on future returns. Plus the fact that nobody has ever been successful in doing so over any extended time frame " the market timers hall of fame is an empty room"

 

[aja8888]

Getting out of the equity market because you have "won the game" is a personal decision and one that I think is a good idea based on time horizon. What isn't a good idea in MHO is getting out because there is going to be a bumpy ride with the idea of getting back in sometime down the road....this is just market timing at it's core. For those of us with large taxable positions moving all out and then some back in in turbulent times would create taxable events that would be a significant drag on future returns. Plus the fact that nobody has ever been successful in doing so over any extended time frame " the market timers hall of fame is an empty room"

An observation by me is that today's market timers are either politicians who have inside information or high speed computers running buy/sell algorithms.

The rest of us are just "retail".

 

[COcheesehead]

If Jeffrey Gundlach does not have any credibility, why is he showing up on Youtube and TV all the time? Why is he called the "Bond King?"

He has a good SEO firm. LOL. Are you really as naive as you sound?

 

[tdv2]

If Jeffrey Gundlach does not have any credibility, why is he showing up on Youtube and TV all the time? Why is he called the "Bond King?"

I made nearly 6 figure profit by taking Jeffery Gundlach's advice and that is the only thing that matters to me. He is my free financial advisor since I do not have to pay him.

If his predictions were that good he certainly wouldn't need to be doing interviews on Yahoo and YouTube to remain relevant. He would simply invest his own funds and go to the beach.

This free financial advise you claim to get is an illusion----and don't try to say I got out of the market July 2019 based on his advise....we have heard it 1000 times....a binary choice has a 50% probability of being right. This is exactly what we would expect from a lucky guess. And further more, the video you posted from Gundlach in April/May telling everyone he is going short, probably made him a handsome return when he took the other side of the trade.

 

[Dawg52]

Well, I am the person that started this thread. I sold and went to 100% cash/bonds (not at the low but at a time when my equities had recovered) and I am still out of the market. I am almost 70 and have enough income/assets for the rest of my life so there was no need for me to lose sleep and be anxious over this market. I may dip my toe back into stocks some day but now is not the time. I could be wrong but I still believe we are in for a very bumpy ride. I have no regrets and no fear of missing out. My only concern now is making sure that I and my loved ones do not come down with this terrible virus.

This pretty much sums up me. Although I do have 1% in stocks.

 

[2177V]

He has a good SEO firm. LOL. Are you really as naive as you sound?

Nope...I am just getting rich from him. Gundlach's net worth is $2 billion dollars from scratch. I tend to listen to successful people.

 

[2177V]

If his predictions were that good he certainly wouldn't need to be doing interviews on Yahoo and YouTube to remain relevant. He would simply invest his own funds and go to the beach.

This free financial advise you claim to get is an illusion----and don't try to say I got out of the market July 2019 based on his advise....we have heard it 1000 times....a binary choice has a 50% probability of being right. This is exactly what we would expect from a lucky guess. And further more, the video you posted from Gundlach in April/May telling everyone he is going short, probably made him a handsome return when he took the other side of the trade.

I got out of the market July 2019 based on his advise. I say this because this is a true statement.

 

[Rianne]

Well, I am the person that started this thread. I sold and went to 100% cash/bonds (not at the low but at a time when my equities had recovered) and I am still out of the market. I am almost 70 and have enough income/assets for the rest of my life so there was no need for me to lose sleep and be anxious over this market. I may dip my toe back into stocks some day but now is not the time. I could be wrong but I still believe we are in for a very bumpy ride. I have no regrets and no fear of missing out. My only concern now is making sure that I and my loved ones do not come down with this terrible virus.

I would consider the same at your age. We're 62 and on ACA. We can put off SS until 70 but not sure we want to. DH has a consulting yearly income of $42K, a work from home situation. I don't think selling is right for us, although I've considered it. Between income and dividends we straddle the $62K income level for ACA. Contributing to tIRA and HSA with the $26K deduction keeps us safe for the time being.

 

[2177V]

the market timers hall of fame is an empty room"

I disagree. Most famous market timers are billionaires. They just know how. Most people don't.

Example...Bill Achman recently made $2 billion shorting the market.


Click

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/bil...made-to-buy-more-stocks-including-hilton.html

What about Warren Buffet? Peter Lynch? Jeffrey Gundlach?

Recently, most billionaires have increased their cash position. I like to do the same since I am currently 70% treasuries.

Go ahead and believe that the room of market timers is an empty one.
There is a reason why some people get rich in the stock market and some people don't. As far as buy and hold and never try to time the market, that strategy is OK for people who do not know how to play the game.