Gambling on beef prices

[Sunset]

The current price difference between beef and other meats like pork and chicken is amazing.

Chicken is really cheap, I think maybe it's due to slaughtering them because of the flu. Also the reason the eggs are back to $3+ per dozen.

 

[Beststash]

Eat less beef - better for your health and the planet. ☮

 

[SecondAttempt]

The current price difference between beef and other meats like pork and chicken is amazing.

Which likely means it is not sustainable since substitution among these meats is the classic illustration of elastic demand.

 

[jim584672]

What would be a good investment if one wanted to bet on beef prices going up?

Open a commodities futures trading account.

 

[Fermion]

Eat less beef - better for your health and the planet. ☮

Technically, wouldn't stuff that is bad for your health be better for the planet?

 

[Sunset]

Technically, wouldn't stuff that is bad for your health be better for the planet?

So true.

 

[ERD50]

I had a rancher sell calves this last week and got average $3.10 a pound for steer and $3.05 a pound for heifers. Some lighter weights went for 4$ a pound. An 800 pound steer selling for $2480.00. A guy wonders why meat in the store is so high.

Sorry no help with question but prices are sky high for cattle.

Considering a live steer/heifer is (guess here) about 1/2 meat and the rest is bone/guts/etc..
It's amazing I can buy beef for less than $6 lb.

I thought steers dressed out at less than half, but I'm seeing sources ~ 60~65%. But I was wondering the same thing (how can our retail prices be what they are if farmers are paying $3/pound?) - I think this is the explanation:

street was talking about $3/pound for calf. So I'd bet it costs far less than $3/pound to add weight to those calves. The cost of the calf included breeding, feeding the mother during gestation, delivery, and raising that calf to feeder size. From wiki:

Feedlots producing live cattle for slaughter will typically purchase 500–850 pounds (230–390 kg) feeder cattle calves and feed to grow the animals into 850–1,400 pounds (390–640 kg) cattle.

I'm not sure if street was saying an 800# steer was actually purchased @ $3/pound, or he just multiplied the earlier figure.

Here we go:

https://www.usfoods.com/our-services/business-trends/farmers-report/beef.html

... for the week ending February 23, 2024. Live cattle sold mostly between $1.82 and $1.83/lb.

So clearly, it must cost much less per pound to add those last 500# or so.

-ERD50

 

[threeonesix]

Fires help cattle. Every year here in Kansas we burn hundreds of thousands of acres of grazing pastures. There's not about to be some huge selloff lowering prices, nor any lack of product to sell raising prices. The TX fires will have no effect on national beef prices.

 

[Fermion]

Fires help cattle. Every year here in Kansas we burn hundreds of thousands of acres of grazing pastures. There's not about to be some huge selloff lowering prices, nor any lack of product to sell raising prices. The TX fires will have no effect on national beef prices.

Well, also Texas is 171 million acres and only 1.3 million have burned so far.

 

[Spock]

Fires help cattle. Every year here in Kansas we burn hundreds of thousands of acres of grazing pastures. There's not about to be some huge selloff lowering prices, nor any lack of product to sell raising prices. The TX fires will have no effect on national beef prices.

Do you really believe that the cattle on over 1M acres (just one of the fires) were loaded up and moved out of harms way in less than 2 days?
The ranchers opened gates and cut fences to allow the cattle a chance to get out of the way, but the fire moved so fast estimates are over 10,000 head were lost.

ETA: On second thought I deleted the attached pic due to graphic content.

 

[audreyh1]

Eat less beef - better for your health and the planet. ☮

Technically, wouldn't stuff that is bad for your health be better for the planet?

So true.

Technically I believe that beef is not at all bad for your health and pasture raised only beef not bad for the planet. Everything about cows on pasture is recycled, as compared to fossil fuels.

 

[Fermion]

I read that 85% of Texas cattle were grazed in the panhandle area, which is only about 17 million acres, so 1.3 million is a fair part of that.

If the fire is contained at that figure, then you might estimate that 1.3/17*0.85*100 = 6.5% of Texas cattle were affected by the fire.

Texas produces about 14% of the cattle for the nation, so that is 0.14 x 0.065 x 100 = 0.91% of the nation's cattle affected by this fire.

If the price multiplier action is 10x the supply lost, then we might expect beef prices to rise by 9.1%

 

[Fermion]

Technically I believe that beef is not at all bad for your health and pasture raised only beef not bad for the planet. Everything about cows on pasture is recycled, as compared to fossil fuels.

Yes, except that cows burp and fart.

It is something like 220 pounds of methane produced per year per cow.

I think I read (might be wrong, probably is) that a cow produces nearly as much greenhouse gas per day as an average ICE car.

 

[audreyh1]

Yes, except that cows burp and fart.

It is something like 220 pounds of methane produced per year per cow.

I think I read (might be wrong, probably is) that a cow produces nearly as much greenhouse gas per day as an average ICE car.

All that methane is from recycled carbon. The grass pulled the carbon out of the air, the cows put it back.

Whereas the carbon emissions from an ICE vehicle come from fossil fuels extracted from underground, thus adding more carbon to the atmosphere.

This critical difference is popular to ignore.

200 years ago we had far more buffalo in North America than we have cattle today. IMO the cattle aren’t the problem if you do mostly pasture raised and quit growing grains to feed them.

 

[Fermion]

All that methane is from recycled carbon. The grass pulled the carbon out of the air, the cows put it back.

Whereas the carbon emissions from an ICE vehicle come from fossil fuels extracted from underground, thus adding more carbon to the atmosphere.

This critical difference is popular to ignore.

200 years ago we had far more buffalo in North America than we have cattle today. IMO the cattle aren’t the problem if you do mostly pasture raised and quit growing grains to feed them.

You are right of course. I tried to find out how much methane was produced from rotting grass (assume that if cows didn't eat it, it would rot). Just searching for "Does rotting grass produce as much methane as a cow eating the same amount of grass?" didn't really give me a satisfactory answer. It seems like it would be the same but maybe the bacteria in a cow's gut act differently somehow? But then what would the grass break down into otherwise?

What it does sound like though, is cars running on methane, would be a win win. Sort of Beyond the Thunderdome style. Just need to have a tube and bottle on each cow.

 

[Out-to-Lunch]

But then what would the grass break down into otherwise?

In an aerobic environment, mostly CO2.

 

[threeonesix]

Do you really believe that the cattle on over 1M acres (just one of the fires) were loaded up and moved out of harms way in less than 2 days?
The ranchers opened gates and cut fences to allow the cattle a chance to get out of the way, but the fire moved so fast estimates are over 10,000 head were lost.

ETA: On second thought I deleted the attached pic due to graphic content.

I didn't say they were moved out of harm's way, but cattle deal with fires all the time and very few actually die from them. We have wildfires all the time that burn through ranch lands and don't kill any cattle. 10,000 losses in a state with cattle that number in the millions is a very small percentage. And that's if estimates are accurate.

 

[bloom2708]

Demand and supply will continue to drop for meat. I would not expect much price movement. I don't see that governement subsidies will drop. I also don't see a steak costing $100. It's been labeled as a class 1 carginogen for quite a while. That doesn't seem to sway many away.

CO2 is .04% of the atmosphere. .0004. 99.9996 is not CO2.

 

[street]

Cattle Summary Report with averages.
https://www.cattlerange.com/pages/market-reports/weekly-summary/

 

[street]

Wife paid 7$ a pound for hamburger today the lean stuff.

 

[Gumby]

We get the vast majority of our meat delivered to us monthly. We pay a fixed price per month for 6-8 lbs of beef, lamb, pork and/or chicken, so I really don't know how much we pay for any particular thing. We can customize our monthly share to eliminate any particular type of those 4 meats, but for the meats we do choose they put the whole animal to use, so we are never certain exactly what cuts what we will get. Sometimes it's tenderloin, sometimes bottom round. We also occasionally get eggs from them.

The upside to this approach are 1) all the meat is locally grown and processed in New England or upstate New York; 2) it is all grass fed and pasture raised; 3) getting different cuts forces us to learn different recipes (so I don't just get beef tenderloin and grill it, which would be my default.); 4) we're not dealing with the giant agri-businesses.

 

[JackJester]

We buy ground Buffalo vs ground Beef for burgers, tacos, etc. There is waaaaay much more cholesterol in even Lean Beef vs Buffalo, and we prefer the taste of Buffalo. Plus Buffalo is just more "natural" to me ... they were here in America long before cattle were imported. Yes, Buffalo is more expensive, but worth it IMO. With that said, once a month we go to our favorite steak house, and by god I'm gonna get a 16oz New York Strip medium rare. That's heaven, even if I now pay $70 for that dang steak.

 

[street]

We buy ground Buffalo vs ground Beef for burgers, tacos, etc. There is waaaaay much more cholesterol in even Lean Beef vs Buffalo, and we prefer the taste of Buffalo. Plus Buffalo is just more "natural" to me ... they were here in America long before cattle were imported. Yes, Buffalo is more expensive, but worth it IMO. With that said, once a month we go to our favorite steak house, and by god I'm gonna get a 16oz New York Strip medium rare. That's heaven, even if I now pay $70 for that dang steak.

Tatanka is my favorite cut of meat. I agree 100%.

 

[audreyh1]

We buy ground Buffalo vs ground Beef for burgers, tacos, etc. There is waaaaay much more cholesterol in even Lean Beef vs Buffalo, and we prefer the taste of Buffalo. Plus Buffalo is just more "natural" to me ... they were here in America long before cattle were imported. Yes, Buffalo is more expensive, but worth it IMO. With that said, once a month we go to our favorite steak house, and by god I'm gonna get a 16oz New York Strip medium rare. That's heaven, even if I now pay $70 for that dang steak.

I enjoy bison too and love it for chili. Occasionally find a ribeye to grill and it’s awesome.

But the nutrition experts long ago announced that cholesterol is not a nutrient of concern. In other words we don’t need to worry about ingesting cholesterol. Our bodies already make plenty of it and eating cholesterol doesn’t make an appreciable difference.

 

[Stormy Kromer]

To the OP. Commodities are a gamble like you said. Be careful.