Has anybody changed their mind about their investing strategy going forward?

[Truckinalong]

I viewed Muni bond fund as my "safe" half of 50/50 strategy. Not sure how I feel now. That said the tax harvesting I did turned out to be a bad move as most market timing has, as said fund has made a nice come back in last two days.

 

[friar1610]

Well into retirement (74; wife 73) I'm just going to change the way I look at things. At the market peak I was sitting at 48/48/4 with a minimum fixed income dollar floor and international just under 25% of equities. My intent, based on an investment advisor recommendation, was to get the equities to 50% at some point when I could buy on a dip (without breaching the FI floor). After the BIG dip I'm now sitting at about 40/56/4. I may throw a little bit more into equities but I think I'm going to pretty much stop thinking so much about my AA going forward. As long as I maintain my FI income floor I'm just going to let equities do what they're going to do so long as they fluctuate within the 35%-50% range. I hope they'll all end up going to my kids or charities anyway. Thanks to pension/SS the FI floor should be sufficientfor any needs we, or either of us alone, will have for the next 20 years or so (and I really don't think we'll be around that long anyway).

One other thing: after the crisis is over I'm going to reconsider whether Total Bond is the right bond fund for our IRAs or whether a Treasury fund would better meet our needs.

 

[Katsmeow]

I may make some changes. In February, at the height of the market I decided to change our 55/45 allocation to 50/50. We had been at 55/45 for almost 10 years and DH (72) and I (65) are older so it made sense to reduce it. One way I did it at the time was that I decided to sell our International Fund. Part of that was desiring tax simplification.

We have most of our money in 5 types of funds (split between Fido and Vanguard).

Total Stock Market
Fido Mid cap (about 15% of portfolio)
Fido Small Cap (about 7% of portfolio)
Wellesley (about 18% of portfolio
Total Bond

Anyway, I think I will get rid of the Mid Cap and Small Cap funds and just stick with the Total Stock Market. Those funds have gone done more and I don't feel that for us we get all that much benefit from them. I may look at the bond food and consider whether I should make some modifications there.

I may also switch to 45/55 but haven't decided yet. We'll see.

 

[dixter]

could be or couldn't be a good thing...
JC Penny Corporate Bond is showing Ask Yield to Maturity and Ask Yield to Worst of 543.5% and its maturity date is 6/1/20... cost basis as of tonight $54.66 cusip 708130AD1 lots of trading activity I have no personal gain for this particular company... just thinking it interesting due to the times we live in...

 

[BeachOrCity]

I feel like I am writing this on a ton of threads on even more blogs.
....but
Setting ones AA should not mean (imho) that one ignores everything happening.

Bank of America today released the “most pessimistic “ s&p 500 forecast for 12/31/2020 yet. You know what it was? 3100 and lowered to 2600.
That means not one person asking for your money thinks the stock market might decline from current levels. Every single investment banker says the stock market will be higher on 12/31 than it is today!

These bankers take people for fools!

All I know is the market is priced today at about 20x 2019 earnings. Those earnings won’t be back until 2022 at the earliest and maybe a long time later.

No one is looking out for your interests more than you!

In my 30+ years of investing I have never seen a clearer bearish outlook with all the professionals forecasting steady to sunny outlooks. Ever. And I mean ever!!

It makes me very very disgusted with the money management profession.

 

[dixter]

for some reason I all ways day dream that some bankers are just sitting in their office buying up targeted stocks all week long to drive the prices up... and its the Fed that tells the bankers here is the money now go and prop up the DOW.. or the Bond Market... I have actually witnessed bond traders buy and sell $millions of bonds during a day and I watched the prices being propped up... who else besides bankers pumps stocks/bonds like that... its rigged to a certain degree... the Feds and the bankers will pump the markets again before the end of the year... if they can't then we got some big big problems...

 

[razztazz]

I feel like I am writing this on a ton of threads on even more blogs.
....but Setting ones AA should not mean (imho) that one ignores everything happening.

I've written similar. Can't always keep it straight in my head if I've posted a thing here already or not. It's getting all run together. So consider this a running apology for sounding repetative.

Finding that AA and "risk level you can live with" is in fact sold everywhere as being designed specifically so you can ignore whatever. To me it's designed to work under "normal" conditions. "Normal" is defined by & as everything that has happened in the past. Everything we know and can know.

Today is not "Situation Normal." It is Terra Incognita. That doesn't mean it will necessarily be the worst trip ever. But you can't say you "know" your AA "will" handle it because you are comfortable with the perceived "risk". And that's all it is. Perceived risk. Set your course and steer the ship with that in mind.

 

[Lsbcal]

I like to read about opinions but don't expect them to direct my process. Hard current data and historical data are the only things that matter.

Trailing PE's are interesting but future PE's are more relevant. However, we don't have anything but other people's estimates and how do you estimate with a pandemic going on?

I think a lot of the somewhat rosy outlook is wishful thinking or just for public consumption to show a positive profile. Some think it is somewhat immoral to sell in this atmosphere.

The market pricing will reveal what is really happening. What matters is what people do in the privacy of their computers.

 

[Freedom56]

I'm not changing my market strategy. I avoided equities for 30 years and will continue to do so. I am keeping an eye on the government corporate bond buyback program. It is providing some stability. I will stick to investing in corporate bonds of stable well managed companies in sectors that have a future and CDs. I will continue to time my corporate bond/note purchases as I always have. I have 30% in cash and 70% corporate notes. My sector allocation will continue to focus on semiconductors, storage, telecom, telecom equipment, pharma, e-commerce, biotech and avoid the rest. I dropped financials from my sector allocation after reading about bank exposure to oil and gas derivatives and the CBOE waving the reporting requirements to several major banks on a temporary basis and their exposure to consumer and small business credit.

The $350B allocated to small business assistance will evaporate very quickly. It's unclear how much due diligence banks will do if they bypass the normal SBA load process and rush the money out. I would imagine that a large percentage will be lost to fraud.

 

[unclemick]

Full auto since 2006. Since my target retirement is about 50/50 and I'm over 70 my RMD was jan/feb before the drop. And we canceled travel planned travel so far this year.

Sanity being overrated. Male. Not football season and staying at home.

Bought a little Vanguard Total World Stock Index and Berkshire B. Trying to keep a grip, only a few 'good' stocks mind you, but the lust is building.

heh heh heh - I really would like to figure out how to take it with me.

 

[jollystomper]

We have 5+ years of cash and not have to touch our equities (which were only around 35% of our assets when this started) for at least that long, so no changes. As I told DW, "the only ones being impacted by these losses are our potential heirs".

 

[SecondCor521]

From a high level point of view, I have not made any changes to my strategy. I am still LTBH, low-cost, high-quality stocks and bonds in an AA that reflects the historically highest SWR for my 40 year planning horizon.

I have stated publicly several times my intent to move from about 93/7 towards 97/3 during a downturn; I moved from 93/7 to 95/5 over the past few weeks.

There have been some minor things I've done that were not in my plan before and are not just about investment strategy:

1. Based on what I remember people here saying during the 2008/2009 downturn, I chose to reserve/buy some trips for later this year when they were on sale.

2. I chose to do about half of my Roth IRA conversion a few weeks ago.

3. I'll probably advise my Dad to suspend his RMD payments for 2020 now that the CARES Act is law. It also may make sense for him to do some Roth conversions this year as a semi-related consequence.

4. I'll likely advise my 20DS with an eye towards him not qualifying as my dependent for 2020 in order for him to be eligible for the stimulus tax credit.

I will add that even as I am confident that what I'm doing is the best for me and my family and even as I am very optimistic about the future, in times like these I still get a little nervous/afraid/queasy.

 

[Old Microbiologist]

No, we went to cash in all accounts completely in early January and will stay there until this resolves. We do not need or use our investment money as it turns out our pensions are about 40% higher than our expenses. Because there will be no travel this year we will save roughly $60k in travel expenses which is a bonus as we had 5 trips planned (and paid for). We have the buffer should we need unexpected medical expenses this year.

With the dollar so strong now we may do some purchasing here in Hungary of some luxury items like a new car or some upgraded sails on my small yacht. But, at the moment cash is king and other than Day Trading on the market we are staying put for as long as necessary. We (my wife not me although I watch and advise if she asks) have made 20% now since January just dipping in and out as the market is so volatile now it is easy pickings if you have the patience and fortitude to time it out well. I do not but she is a genius at this and has a 6th sense of market timings mostly as she only trades a few stocks and recognizes the patterns the algo traders are using. However, we still go to cash every day and never use margin or hold anything overnight.

I think until the crises ends and/or completely collapses we will stay like this. There is no good news at all yet the PPT is trying desperately to support the markets with helicopter money. It will not end well as things will get worse not better for at least 2 more months. This crisis has revealed all the weaknesses in the American economy and things are changing rapidly in the world. Maybe this will force some much needed changes to the US financial system and at a minimum put back the Glass-Steagall regulations removed under Clinton which set us up for this crisis in the first place and wasn't fixed after 2008. It is going to take a major collapse for our current Congress to try fixing that again.

 

[WyomingLife]

No.

Age: mid to late 50’s.

Pre-virus AA roughly 65/34/6.

Last week, we started to invest some of the cash in Vanguard equity ETFs; primarily non-US (largely for equity diversification reasons). And each month, as we have always done on a set schedule for nearly 35 years, we continue to invest new funds in the market. Except for our once-a-year rebalancing, we have literally never sold anything for purposes of “cashing out” or fleeing to safety at any time over those 35 years.. I actually find a down market to be a reassuring reminder that, well, markets go up and down. They always have, and always will. My brain may be wired differently, but I find it reassuring that the bear is here again now. It was always out there in the woods; and now, yet again, it has wandered closer to the homestead as it does from time to time.

 

[FLSUnFIRE]

These bankers take people for fools!

No one knows.... especially under these circumstances. -I see the drop as purely speculative as until the virus is on the decline and we see what happens we don't know squat how earnings will rebound. I don't know of anyway to rationally value anything at the moment.



I could see a quick rebound possible as pent up demand jump starts the economy or we could have just made a new generation of frugal folks (like me?) that are going to save and increase spending very gradually. I could also see the government enacting more and more policies to protect us/the economy that do more harm than good. Certainly there will be some long term shifts in consumer, business, and maybe (but unlikely) investor behavior.


Personally, staying 100% equity for my investments and am adding to my position monthly as I continue to work and I pay off a 401K loan, contribute to the 401K, contribute to my Roth IRA, and contribute to my HSA (also DCAing more of my HSA balance into equities from cash as it was about 60% cash). Most of after my take home pay I am keeping as cash as I build funds to pay for my first couple years living expenses after FIRE (will quit once I feel a bit more confident we are on the other side of this fiasco and if my portfolio will support at that time... still hoping for late 2020).

 

[nativenewenglander]

We are currently 50% cash and 50% Wellesley Income. I will deploy the cash as we move through the current environment. Having run several businesses before retirement, it will be interesting to see how this all resolves itself we are in uncharted waters. A recession was coming, the virus, then shutdown are going to make it far worse. The longer the shutdown drags on the more psychological damage is being done, which is not good for a consumer society. I think we are in a "humpty dumpty" world which won't resolve quickly. I hope to be wrong.

 

[Hosmer]

I change my mind frequently. But I'm smart enough not to follow through on it.

+1

 

[FIREd]

I have been out of equities and bonds since September 2018 due to big changes in personal circumstances. I was looking to get back in this year but didn't expect to get an opportunity to re-enter the equity market below where I exited (last year was tough, being forced to sit on the sidelines while the market was melting up. It felt like I was missing out while everyone else was partying). But now it is not easy to let go of my big pile of cash. The rest of my stash is invested in rental RE and, with so many people losing their job, things look a bit bleak there too. I'm probably going to slowly get back into equities over the next few months, and perhaps accelerate the pace a bit if the rental market looks like it's gonna hold (as I can live on the rental income alone if need be).

 

[Dd852]

Staying the course 60/40. The question for me is when to adjust back to those levels. I sold a few bond fund shares and bought equities last Monday but I’m currently still at 56/44. I usually only move when things are five points or more off my levels.

 

[seraphim]

Our target was always 60s/40b, but generally runs 63/37 - which we rebalance with our withdrawal selection. Now we’re at about 55/45, and considering a rebalance. Might wait a week or so and see what happens.

 

[VungTau]

I have made a bunch of adjustments - reallocated from an overweight fund that I couldn't do at the peak as the cap gain would have been ridiculous. I also did some Roth Conversions. Finally, I reallocated my retirement funds to slightly more aggressive picks to hopefully catch a bit more of the upside swing when it occurs.

Since I have enough cash to ride this out for a long spell and enough other income generating assets (as yet un-impacted but we'll find out this month when rents are due) to cover way more than my living expenses I can afford to be a bit more aggressive and see how it comes out on the other end.

Living overseas and lowering my COL expenses dramatically also helps. If I was still in California I would be in a very different situation I guess...

 

[NW-Bound]

No change in my tactical AA method. If anything, I regret not being more aggressive in adjusting my AA according to the market condition.

I used to run a stock AA of 70-80%. In Dec 2019, I cut back to 60%. Currently at 53%.

At some point, I will ramp up to 70-80% stock again.

 

[retired1]

This is great time to do your pickings. It's time to buy on sale so I'm trying to catch falling knife mainly dividend ETFs. Energy sector looks very appealing.

 

[NW-Bound]

^^^ I dunno. I will be buying at some point, but not anytime soon. The impact of frozen business activities has not been fully felt.

 

[Cayman]

Ages: Early 50s (both of us)
Pre virus AA was 45% equities

Staying the course, no changes planned.
Might fire some powder if we see an additional 20% or more drop in the market. Still planning to buy an additional home this year or next.