Hurricane "Ian" may be heading for us here in Florida

[ExFlyBoy5]

When we got hit by Fran in '96, it looked totally unimpressive. It was down to a 3, no visible eye, open radar on the south. I relaxed and fell asleep. Then...

It was a night of terror.

I will never again underestimate the power of a storm in the stages of dissipation. The eye collapsed right on Raleigh, and that apparently had something to do with it.

In any case, those of us farther up the coast need to be vigilant. The referenced satellite view in the quote shows convection popping again over the warm gulf stream.

Perhaps I should not have said, "not as impressive" as that is certainly not the case...it just doesn't have the classic look of a hurricane as it did. Sandy is one that will live on in history for YEARS...nothing too impressive to see on satellite...but we know what it did. And shoot, Katrina was "just" a Cat 3 when it hit New Orleans and we also know what that did all up and down the coast (and inland).

 

[Car-Guy]

To Jim's credit..he wasn't the "showman" that got called out. That was Mike Seidel. Poor Jim got smacked with a limb last night...but hey, when you stand in a HURRICANE, you gotta expect that. YTTV has Fox Weather which reminded me of the old (and good) Weather Channel. They reported the weather with little drama.

Mike's "performance":

Yep, Seidel has had his moments too... Last night on Hannity, he called out Cantore's actions as not being to smart. I saw that tree branch hit him live on the weather channel... Smart or dumb?... A few minutes later a big metal street sign flew by... That could have been bad.

 

[Aerides]

Yep, Seidel has had his moments too... Last night on Hannity, he called out Cantore's actions as not being to smart. I saw that tree branch hit him live on the weather channel... Smart or dumb?... A few minutes later a big metal street sign flew by... That could have been bad.[/IMG]

Personally I think these stunts are beyond dumb, and think the Weather Channel and others that set these up are irresponsible. Stuff like this makes normal people think they can ride out storms and stay inside ("well if he can do it out there, we'll be fine in here!"). Until they aren't.

Unfortunately, this behavior drives ratings. We watch, they sell commercials, regardless of the other consequences.

 

[omni550]

My condo community, a mile inland, west of 41, midway between Naples and Ft. Myers seems to have escaped with no major damage. Neighbors are reporting a few uprooted trees, lots of windblown debris, overfull ponds, some standing water in the roadways as they are designed to drain into the ponds, but can't at the moment. Power has been out since 3pm Wed. Not likely to be restored any time soon, as millions of FL folks are without power.

Nearby streets closer to the water have homes with 5-6 feet of water in and around them.


Lee County Sherriff confirms 5 storm-related deaths.


Lee County has put out a county-wide bottled water alert this morning for drinking and cooking...then boil tap water when power has been restored...until the public water systems have been declared OK (as they may have been compromised by the storm.)

Coastal areas of Naples and coastal areas of Ft. Myers were SLAMMED...millions of dollars of damage to houses, condos, cars, businesses, restaurants, marinas, etc. Downtown areas of Naples and Ft Myers each had multiple feet of storm surge water flowing through. Bonita also has a lot of low-lying areas that were flooded -- even a few miles inland.

It's going to take a long time and a lot of money to get everything taken care of.

omni

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

Yep, Seidel has had his moments too... Last night on Hannity, he called out Cantore's actions as not being to smart.

Really? Wow... I identify as a weather geek and haven't really watched TWC in many years. I had some hope that it would go back to their weather roots when Byron Allen's outfit bought them but nope...same ol, same ol. I recall WAY back in the day when they were new, one of the guys that started the channel would play the ukulele randomly during the broadcast.

 

[Car-Guy]

Personally I think these stunts are beyond dumb, and think the Weather Channel and others that set these up are irresponsible. Stuff like this makes normal people think they can ride out storms and stay inside ("well if he can do it out there, we'll be fine in here!"). Until they aren't.

Unfortunately, this behavior drives ratings. We watch, they sell commercials, regardless of the other consequences.

You nailed it!

 

[RetiredAndLovingIt]

Our morning news anchor was able to contact her mother in Ft Myers by cell and put her on the air.
Mom was lucky and suffered no real damage but she spent the night alone in a corner huddling a pillow and praying. Her husband is out of the country and the family had talked about bringing her to California but she decided to stay thinking Ian would miss them.
The thing that struck me though was her resilience, she's already been out this morning and washed a couple of windows, dragged the palm fronds to the curb and picked up the yard as best she could. Her neighbor was trying to fix the stop sign pole at the end of the street and she brought him the sign that had landed at her front door.
She also mentioned it's a beautiful day there with blue skies but of course no electricity. I'm pretty sure this lady was in her 70's but she sounded so chipper on the phone for what she just went through.

 

[eytonxav]

I wonder how all those pythons in the wild survived the hurricane? I am sure everyone would like to see that population diminished.

 

[ivinsfan]

Personally I think these stunts are beyond dumb, and think the Weather Channel and others that set these up are irresponsible. Stuff like this makes normal people think they can ride out storms and stay inside ("well if he can do it out there, we'll be fine in here!"). Until they aren't.

Unfortunately, this behavior drives ratings. We watch, they sell commercials, regardless of the other consequences.

You know as farmers we love watching weather, but real weather as in forecasts, extended forecasts. and such...when the WC started this "weather porn" we lost interest in watching it.

 

[ivinsfan]

Really? Wow... I identify as a weather geek and haven't really watched TWC in many years. I had some hope that it would go back to their weather roots when Byron Allen's outfit bought them but nope...same ol, same ol. I recall WAY back in the day when they were new, one of the guys that started the channel would play the ukulele randomly during the broadcast.

In pre-internet, cell phone apps time, weather on the 8's was a must watch in this farm house.

 

[Gumby]

That is very true Lewis Clark. Some of it comes down to economics in replacement etc..

Exactly. I think our historic downtown would look much better if we didn't have the electric distribution lines and poles all over the place, but I'm pretty sure none of my neighbors would be willing to pay the cost to bury all those lines.

You know as farmers we love watching weather, but real weather as in forecasts, extended forecasts. and such...when the WC started this "weather porn" we lost interest in watching it.

Mike's Weather Page is my go to resource for real weather. Meteorology was my favorite class in college, so I'm fond of actual data and accurate maps.

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

Mike's Weather Page is my go to resource for real weather. Meteorology was my favorite class in college, so I'm fond of actual data and accurate maps.

I am sure Mike is a good dude...but his page...oye, it's painful to the eyes!

The College of DuPage has some fantastic weather tools for weather geeks. The NWS and NOAA has some pretty great products as well and hire some very talented folks. I am quite a big fan of the NWS aviation products, they get very in depth with their analysis and also have great apps/products.

https://weather.cod.edu/analysis/

 

[Sojourner]

Although the storm is not nearly as impressive looking, I thought I would share this link that is of the GOES East satellite. It is one of the more impressive products available from NOAA. Weather geeks are pretty big fans.

This link is configured for a 20 hour loop.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=GEOCOLOR&length=240

Wow! What a mesmerizing thing to see that monstrous storm march across Florida like that. Such an awesome spectacle of nature. Thanks for sharing the link.

 

[old medic]

Well we are getting ready for our turn.. forecast to take a direct here in WNC. lots of fast rain in the mountains makes for some rapid flooding. Leaving Monday for a week long camping trip.. seen this campground flood twice in the last few years.

 

[tuckeverlasting]

Heard from DB on Merritt Island this morning. No problems, nothing going on except part of an already rickety old fence blew down. Said eye of the storm was over him right then and 37 mph winds expected thereafter. No power outages or flooding on the island.

 

[Lewis Clark]

... Meteorology was my favorite class in college, so I'm fond of actual data and accurate maps.

I wanted to take a meteorology class in college, but the colleges I attended as an undergrad didn't even offer a single class in anything related to weather. Then I went a bit overboard and earned a masters degree in meteorology and physical oceanography. Really enjoyed those classes.

 

[ncbill]

So how many are currently missing?

My recent graduate has friends in the FL National Guard who tell him this may be the deadliest hurricane in FL history.

 

[Lewis Clark]

Here in Pinellas County, two people went kayaking this morning and needed to be rescued. Is it too early for the next round of Darwin Award nominations?

 

[dm]

Looks like my home in Punta Gorda is still standing with little damage. Boat is also still on the lift. Some roof tiles gone, pool cage damaged, one window broke, some soffit gone, but I expected much worse.

And of coarse the big thing is no one I know was injured.

I’m heading back tommorow, wife may load up and go visit friends for a week or month. I do have a generator and picked up a small window A/C, but water may be a problem for a while.

 

[MRG]

Looks like my home in Punta Gorda is still standing with little damage. Boat is also still on the lift. Some roof tiles gone, pool cage damaged, one window broke, some soffit gone, but I expected much worse.



And of coarse the big thing is no one I know was injured.

+1
We're with family from Fort Myres and they had reports from their family their home is intact and dry. Some debris in pool.

DW said he just slumped when he read the message. They're heading back tomorrow taking 3-4 days. Having a camper on their truck is a real blessing going back into a disaster area.

 

[Gremlin]

Good to hear you are fine and not much damage. I have a good friend in Naples who is good but describes the area as devastated.

Lots of work to done to rebuild. But can and will be done, I’m sure.

Good luck to all down there!

My condo community, a mile inland, west of 41, midway between Naples and Ft. Myers seems to have escaped with no major damage. Neighbors are reporting a few uprooted trees, lots of windblown debris, overfull ponds, some standing water in the roadways as they are designed to drain into the ponds, but can't at the moment. Power has been out since 3pm Wed. Not likely to be restored any time soon, as millions of FL folks are without power.

Nearby streets closer to the water have homes with 5-6 feet of water in and around them.


Lee County Sherriff confirms 5 storm-related deaths.


Lee County has put out a county-wide bottled water alert this morning for drinking and cooking...then boil tap water when power has been restored...until the public water systems have been declared OK (as they may have been compromised by the storm.)

Coastal areas of Naples and coastal areas of Ft. Myers were SLAMMED...millions of dollars of damage to houses, condos, cars, businesses, restaurants, marinas, etc. Downtown areas of Naples and Ft Myers each had multiple feet of storm surge water flowing through. Bonita also has a lot of low-lying areas that were flooded -- even a few miles inland.

It's going to take a long time and a lot of money to get everything taken care of.

omni

 

[Gremlin]

So good to hear! And spared the boat too. So pleased for you. And I’d be going somewhere else for awhile, too. Probably for a month!

Looks like my home in Punta Gorda is still standing with little damage. Boat is also still on the lift. Some roof tiles gone, pool cage damaged, one window broke, some soffit gone, but I expected much worse.

And of coarse the big thing is no one I know was injured.

I’m heading back tommorow, wife may load up and go visit friends for a week or month. I do have a generator and picked up a small window A/C, but water may be a problem for a while.

 

[Rustward]

We were vacationing on Sanibel and evacuated Tuesday afternoon. Made it out by that much. I don't think anybody expected the causeway to fail so spectacularly. We'll be back as soon as we can, but it may be a long time.

 

[JoeWras]

So how many are currently missing?

My recent graduate has friends in the FL National Guard who tell him this may be the deadliest hurricane in FL history.

Recency bias by the young graduate. I'm a fan of weather and weather history. People tend to bias to their own time as "worst" or "unprecedented."

I want to be clear: Ian is a top bad hurricane that will be historic. But Florida has a history of bad hurricanes and frankly was lucky from 1960 to 2004, when building expanded.

So, for Ian to be deadliest, it will my mean 2000 people will have to perish. I hope to God that didn't happen, especially with all the warnings we have today.

The 1928 officially killed about 1800, but estimates are 2500 to account for the migrant farmers.

The 1935 hurricane killed 408 in Florida. For the longest time, this storm was on record for lowest pressure.

Really hope people heeded the warnings to avoid these kind of numbers.

 

[bmcgonig]

Naive question: I see lots of wrecked boats in the hurricane aftermath. Some really big ones. Is there no good way to get those out of the way before a hurricane hits? I know that the navy will move ships out to sea, maybe these are too small to go that far out?