Andre1969
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
I think one reason the 1999 cycle would have been so bad for me if I had retired then, is because I had three bad years in a row right off the bat. I was down about 5.4% in 2000, down another 30.4% in 2001, and finished 2002 down 23.1%. I don't know what the overall market return was, but that's what mine was. And pulling 4% adjusted for inflation each year would have devastated the portfolio.
While 2003-2007 were great years, I wouldn't have recovered enough, in time to ride out the Great Recession. As it is, I lost about 42% in 2008. So whatever 4% adjusting for inflation would have jacked up to by then would have really smacked it hard. Hard enough that the withdrawals from there on out would offset the gains I made in the following years.
But, I was also invested pretty risky during those times, if that cycle would ultimately fail, a good deal of the blame sits right on me!
While 2003-2007 were great years, I wouldn't have recovered enough, in time to ride out the Great Recession. As it is, I lost about 42% in 2008. So whatever 4% adjusting for inflation would have jacked up to by then would have really smacked it hard. Hard enough that the withdrawals from there on out would offset the gains I made in the following years.
But, I was also invested pretty risky during those times, if that cycle would ultimately fail, a good deal of the blame sits right on me!