"With the WLI close to an all-time high, a double dip remains out of the question," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of ECRI. WLI Level At Nine-Week High
I am more than a little worried about this
It is the sale of the mortgage backed securities that has me worried. Normally the Fed pulls money out of circulation by selling Treasuries. This time (and for the first time) they are going to try to sell a mountain of [-]crap[/-] mortgage backed securities for which there might be no market, or only a market at drastically reduced prices. At best this would pull less money out of circulation than planned. As for the worst case... I haven't the foggiest idea of what would happen if the Fed were forced to take a gigantic loss.
It is the sale of the mortgage backed securities that has me worried. Normally the Fed pulls money out of circulation by selling Treasuries. This time (and for the first time) they are going to try to sell a mountain of [-]crap[/-] mortgage backed securities for which there might be no market, or only a market at drastically reduced prices. At best this would pull less money out of circulation than planned. As for the worst case... I haven't the foggiest idea of what would happen if the Fed were forced to take a gigantic loss.
The mortgage the Fed owns aren't "crap" . . . they're all essentially backed by the U.S. government.
The Fed has a variety of ways it can shrink its balance sheet and withdraw liquidity, so I wouldn't expect them to try to flood the market with bonds. Bernanke has been pretty clear about all of the tools he expects to use to normalize monetary policy. Everything from paying interest on reserves, to engaging in reverse repos, to allowing the portfolio to simply roll off (your chart shows how quickly the Fed's original asset purchases rolled down), to selling securities.
Mmmm!However, if you were referring to a double dip ice cream cone, I think that is an excellent thought, which I intend to ponder.
Just to be clear, in my post above I was referring to a double-dip in the economy (i.e. another recession). Nothing to do with the markets - they dip and they soar on mood alone....I don't know if we are going to get a double dip with respect to the market. I doubt anybody can accurately predict what is going to happen with the market, except that it will go up, then down, then up, then down, repeat ad infinitum. So yes, I believe it will go down again but the timing is pretty iffy.
However, if you were referring to a double dip ice cream cone, I think that is an excellent thought, which I intend to ponder.
The phrase "double-dip" normally refers to the economy and whether it will return to recession soon.
IndependentlyPoor said:Mmmm!
Can I have sprinkles?
Oh, I had heard it used to predict another impending market crash, similar to the crash of 2008-2009.
It is used a bit interchangeably, because its a cause and effect kind of thing. The market tanks because the economy "double dips".
Gone4Good said:But the "double dip" is referencing recession, not market moves.
I don't know if we are going to get a double dip with respect to the market. I doubt anybody can accurately predict what is going to happen with the market, except that it will go up, then down, then up, then down, repeat ad infinitum. So yes, I believe it will go down again but the timing is pretty iffy.
So, the market being one of several symptoms indicative of a recession,
However, if you were referring to a double dip ice cream cone, I think that is an excellent thought, which I intend to ponder.
However, if you were referring to a double dip ice cream cone, I think that is an excellent thought, which I intend to ponder.
Well, there was a pair of drastic sell-offs - one in Nov 2008, and one in March 2009. These, though, are usually referred to as "bottoms" LOL! And they often do come in pairs!Oh, I had heard it used to predict another impending market crash, similar to the crash of 2008-2009. Oh well! Thanks for the correction.
These, though, are usually referred to as "bottoms"
Oh sure! It's impossible to see what is going on when you are in the middle of it.I recall a great deal of hand-wringing in March of last year as to whether the lows would hold. By that time we were quite tired of having our bottom repeatedly violated.
EEEEK! Technical indicators! Run! Hide!Of course the 2008/2009 bottoms violated the 2002/2003 lows, so you never know how bad it might get in the future!
Oh - don't listen to anyone on CNBC's Squawk Box - it's the worst for sensible predictions! The same goes for any kind of investing advice.Squawk Box in the morning's experts say no double dip in 2010. May have that slide down in 2011, tho. More fun times ahead, kids!
I agree with you; he's been saying the "chicken little" phrase for two long. Of course, that's only my opinion - which dosen't count for much .We are not going to have a double dip recession. Roubini was wrong, plain and simple. He had his 15 minutes of fame.