Notmuchlonger
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
- Joined
- Dec 20, 2007
- Messages
- 4,764
So much for the January effect. Hehe.
-CC
What happened in 2009?
So much for the January effect. Hehe.
-CC
Looking more and more like a double dip to me unless the jobs --sustainable private sector jobs, not stimulus jobs -- magically start appearing to restore consumer confidence. And frankly I don't see a driver for it.I put far more stock in the 43 percent drop in the Bulk Dry Shipping index from November. Hardly anything has been commented on in the press about the huge decline since the November recovery high in this index and it has led all the stock market moves for years now and is not looking very pretty.
News I heard was consumer credit numbers came out much better than expected.
Agreed. I'm just saying it's funny that "more debt than expected" is a positive to the market when this post-bubble recession and near meltdown was largely caused by too much debt and easy credit.The consumer credit still declined in last quarter. It just declined less than expected. So, it was considered good.
What is really funny about days like today is that it shows how nonsensical the financial press daily "reasons" for market action are:
Up until 3 pm - "Markets plunge on disappointment with jobs numbers"
After 3 pm - "Market rallies on improved jobs numbers"
(Those are hypothetical headlines above - but you read stuff like this all the time).
Audrey
The folks on the T/A thread at the Morningstar Fidelity Forum think that the PPT (plunge-protection-team) intervened at 3:00 pm by buying futures.
Sure, the market may have run up too far to fast, but a pull back this quick seems a bit off right after fantastic company earnings results. I mean, the company earnings have been absolutely outrageously fantastic - way above any whisper numbers. To be met by such vicious selling - that is very unusual.
The folks on the T/A thread at the Morningstar Fidelity Forum think that the PPT (plunge-protection-team) intervened at 3:00 pm by buying futures.
I also read a rumor that at 3 pm a rumor came out that some agreement had been reached to help Greece, and that this rumor caused a lot of shorts to cover.
Whatever - this kind of situation indicates to me that at the moment the market is being buffeted by forces that are not closely tied with fundamentals, and that it will eventually work itself out.
audreyh1 said:If, in the meantime, we get a good 10% correction on the S&P 500 that seems like a good thing for a stronger market. We got pretty close to reaching that 10% from recent peak today.
Audrey
To me, not all so-called "market timing" is created equal. To me, the type of market timing which tries to guess short-term moves in the market and darts in and out of stocks becomes indistinguishable from going to Vegas.Personally I am hoping it goes down just a wee little bit further or at least stays where it is for a few days, since I am on the verge of buying (nothing drastic, just a few tweaks according my asset allocation plan, naturally). I'll wait and see if the market skyrockets upwards Monday morning and if not, I'm pulling the trigger. I know, market timing is dumb but this is only partial market timing I guess...