1-31-18
Recycles dryer sheets
- Joined
- Mar 12, 2017
- Messages
- 173
Per data that I’ve seen, no equity drawdown of 50 percent has ever caused a retiree drawing thereafter at the 4 percent level to go broke.
So, at a 3 percent WR, you are good to go, Franklin, withdrawing about $250K pre-tax, assuming your port is no riskier than 50 percent equity (and assuming a worst-case equity drawdown of 50 percent). You might want to de-risk it to that point if you have more than 50 percent equity, and glide up from there. Mentioned only (but significantly) because the CAPE ratio exceeds 30.
I continue to work despite passing this test because I do cutting-edge work that is immensely rewarding and I control my working environment. Probably I will retire as we start to emerge from the next recession. That could be — oh, who knows? — three or four years from now. But I won’t retire even then if I am engaged in resolving a major insolvency, such as for example the deepening insolvency of the State of Illinois.
I realize that I could die before then. Not likely, but so what? I’ve been living a very rich life. People who aren’t fulfilled by their jobs have a very different outlook than I do. They should retire as soon as they can.
BTW, I’m a Franklin, too. Descended from Ben. A penny saved, early to bed, etc. Ben was FI in his 30s but did not RE, or at all. He was the oldest person to sign the United States Constitution. My kind of guy.
So, at a 3 percent WR, you are good to go, Franklin, withdrawing about $250K pre-tax, assuming your port is no riskier than 50 percent equity (and assuming a worst-case equity drawdown of 50 percent). You might want to de-risk it to that point if you have more than 50 percent equity, and glide up from there. Mentioned only (but significantly) because the CAPE ratio exceeds 30.
I continue to work despite passing this test because I do cutting-edge work that is immensely rewarding and I control my working environment. Probably I will retire as we start to emerge from the next recession. That could be — oh, who knows? — three or four years from now. But I won’t retire even then if I am engaged in resolving a major insolvency, such as for example the deepening insolvency of the State of Illinois.
I realize that I could die before then. Not likely, but so what? I’ve been living a very rich life. People who aren’t fulfilled by their jobs have a very different outlook than I do. They should retire as soon as they can.
BTW, I’m a Franklin, too. Descended from Ben. A penny saved, early to bed, etc. Ben was FI in his 30s but did not RE, or at all. He was the oldest person to sign the United States Constitution. My kind of guy.